Sarah Palin, in a an interview with Barbara Walters (as one of "Barbara Walters' 10 Most Fascinating People" program ) stated, in response to this question from Walters: "If you ran for president, could you beat Barack Obama?"
"I believe so,"
Yes, she most certainly can, and her belief is well founded on fact as clearly set out in the maps below.
At this point in time the red states on this map (Map 1) appear a lock. The 2010 House election results (Map2) give every indication of confirming this scenario. Thus the 2012 presidential election hinges on Virginia/ Ohio/ Iowa which gives the Republicans, as things now stand, a very good chance of winning. It doesn't matter how much of President Obama's anti-Palin base turns out massively in California, and even more so in New York, whose electoral votes are declining rapidly and is now balanced out by Florida.
The biggest question will be if his Black and liberal support in Virginia will hold as it did in 2008-however the loss of Virginia to the Dem's could be overcome by winning Colorado and Nevada.
The map below is updated, allowing for projected population shifts, by Texas 38 Florida 29 New York 29 Missouri 10 . The totals for the Republicans are 272 electoral votes (270 required)
MAP 1: PROJECTED 2012 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS
MAP 2: HOUSE RESULTS MID-TERM ELECTIONS 2010