Wednesday, June 15, 2011

UPDATE:Palin Leads Romney By 6% (Palin Rises 51% Across 8 Major Polls-The Trending Graph Media Keeps Hidden)

The Economist /YouGov Poll just out confirms the recent Reuters poll which had Sarah Palin ahead of Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination at 19% to 18%-this time pulling even further ahead.

29. If you had to choose one, which of these individuals would you want to be the Republican
nominee for president in 2012? Asked of Republicans
Sarah Palin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Mitt Romney . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Newt Gingrich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5%
Tim Pawlenty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Michele Bachmann . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5%
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ORIGINAL POST;


Above is the trending graph of potential GOP candidates from the aggregate at Real Clear Politics. The green line represents Sarah Palin's polling movement over the past few months ( Romney is the purple line). Significant factors would be Huckabee Daniels and Barbour announcing they were not running and the commencement of Palin's bus tour. The tour might have signalled to potential Palin supporters that she will indeed be a candidate and thus made them more certain that indication her as a preference was not a wasted indication.

If we look at the actual polling results for May, or the latest available from any one firm, and compare them to those from June too date, the reason for the trend lines striking upturn is very clear-and this is without Palin having as yet made a definite commitment to running.  PPP Polling most recent result was in April and Reuters does not have a previous relevant Palin history on RCP.

Polling Firm                                                 Month Polled                        Month Polled
CNN                                                             May  13%                                 June      20%
NBC                                                             April 10                                     June      14
GALLUP                                                       May 15                                     June      16
FOXNEWS                                                   April  9                                    June      12
ABCWASHPO                                             April  5                                     June      17
REUTERS                                                   N/A                                           June      19
QUINNIPIAC                                               April 15                                    May      15
PPP                                                              April   8                                    May     16.5 (aggregate)

Aggregate    +5.47  (+51%)                          10.71                                           16.18

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