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Monday, July 18, 2011
Palin In Strong Second Place In Crucial S.Carolina State Poll
Without having declared and with Bachman getting huge media coverage Sarah Palin polls a strong second place in the crucial state of South Carolina amongst GOP voters in a new ARG poll. This
state is a potential Queen maker as winning it has given eventual nominees from both party's the momentum to eventually go on to the presidency including Bush and Obama.
Here is the poll result and analysis from "Technopeasant at Conservatives4Pailin
American Research Group (ARG) poll of SC today:
OVERALL GOP INDY TPS NTPS
ROMNEY 25 (18) 27 17 26 24
PALIN 16 (10) 17 10 17 14
BACHMANN 13 (5) 10 24 16 10
CAIN 10 (1) 10 11 10 10
GIULIANI 6 (4) 6 6 2 10
PERRY 6 (-) 6 7 5 7
GINGRICH 3 (9) 3 3 2 4
SANTORUM 2(1) 2 3 2 2
PAUL 2 (1) 2 1 2 2
ROEMER 2 (-) 2 0 2 1
PAWLENTY 0 (2) -- -- --- --
OTHER/UND 15 (11) 15 17 16 15
POLL CONDUCTED BETWEEN JULY 12-17
TPS: TEA PARTY SUPPORTER
NTPS: NON TEA PARTY SUPPORTER
BRACKETS APRIL 2011
Analysis and conclusions:
1) The April 2011 poll was conducted with Huckabee still in the race; this poll was the first one by ARG post-Huckabee.
2) Let me remind you of the importance of the South Carolina primary. Since 1980 no GOP presidential candidate has become the nominee without winning SC. And don't kid yourself, the GOP primary voters of SC know that political nugget as well as anyone.In other words some SC voters may feel they have the power of God in "anointing" the eventual nominee and thus do not cast their vote frivolously.
3) Let's deal with the bottom feeders first. How can you call yourself a credible candidate when you poll ZERO in SC and even behind a fringe candidate (Roemer)? You can't and this should be Pawlenty's signal to leave the race. He was toast after the NH debate. Now he is burnt to a crisp.
4) As for Santorum, Rick buddy when you can only poll 2% in a state that exit polls showed in the 2008 primary that 60% of the vote were evangelical Christians, your core base, it's also time for you to pack your bags as well.
5) As for Newt Gingrich we need not say anymore. 3% in a southern state (Newt calls Georgia home) is embarrassing.
6) As for Herman Cain he is still a player, but barely.
7) As for Romney what I have suspected has occurred pretty well throughout America: liberal/moderates have rallied around Mitt and as you know I predicted this would happen because of the Palin factor. For the greater majority of Romney supporters, it's not really that they love their guy so much, but that they despise Palin even more.
8) And for Michele Bachmann with all the hype in the media and her own personal exposure on the airwaves you would have thought by now she would have surged into 2nd spot in SC. This result proves my theory that Michele Bachmann is a "poor-man's Mike Huckabee" in that she plays well in the midwest among evangelical voters, does terrible with libertarians in the West as Huck did but unlike Huckabee does NOT do as well in the South where Cain has picked up a sizable chunk of Huckabee's former support.
9) And as for Sarah Palin, being in 2nd spot in an early primary state is a good position especially since she has NOT declared yet. Notice among conservative Republican candidates she leads among Republicans and TPS. And it always must be borne in mind she has been trashed by the media non-stop for almost 3 years while Bachmann has been touted as the belle of the ball and a Palin replacement non-stop for the last month.