Thursday, October 13, 2011

PPP Poll:"Gingrich Surges Past Perry To Third Place"A Brokered Convention & Palin "Earthquake"?



The latest PPP Polling for Iowa and GOP preferences nationwide show the nomination is not only wide open at this point but could contain a startling twist.


As I have been presenting Newt Gingrich has been slowly but surely, which is the best way, rising in the polls. There is a history AT THIS LINK.


The latest PPP polls for Iowa and nationwide, present fascinating information. If Gingrich continues to rise, and Perry continues to fall, and Cain declines after the inevitable scrutiny that is coming his way, and Romney stays within the polling boundaries he has for many months, then anything can happen.


If the next PPP  Iowa poll reflects Gingrich's nationwide rise, then it is all on. On the basis of the latest shown poll below there is 33% non-Romney/ Non-Cain vote up for grabs. If the bulk, or a substantial portion, went to Gingrich and a bit of Cain's and Romney's went to him, then he could be well in the lead. 


Given the incredible fluidity of recent polling where candidates go up and down by 20+ points in a matter of weeks this is a totally credible scenario.


Similarly, the PPP nationwide poll which reflects the sharp rise for Gingrich has a pool of 27% non-Cain/Romney potential votes for Gingrich. A solid proportion of these, plus bleeding from the front runners, could also put Gingrich in the lead.


If The Iowa scenario pans out then if Gingrich won the caucus, then did credibly  in New Hampshire, which is Romney territory, then as a southerner he would have every chance in South Carolina. 


Unlike Cain, Gingrich would have credibility, as an experienced previously elected politician, with the voters in the big industrial states and, given the proportional  delegate allocation system in place this time round, could be very competitive with Romney there. 


Certainly under that scenario he could take enough delegates to block Romney winning on the first ballot in Miami.


If, prior to the Iowa caucus Sarah Palin endorsed Gingrich, and there a good reasons to believe that were possible, then he would have an outstanding chance of winning there, and be well on his way to a strong position delegate wise in the convention. If that were the case, and no candidate had a majority of delegates, then the convention might undergo a numerous series of ballots. 


If, after a large number of ballots were cast, it seemed unlikely that any of the candidates with delegates could make a breakthrough, the convention could turn to someone outside the current candidates. At that point the "earthquake" that Palin said would need to happen to make her a candidate might just happen.


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