Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Palin The Ultimate Winner Of The Iowa Caucus Result Tonight?

had this prescient view of the subsequent Iowa caucus results;

"Isn’t it time for Newt to consider taking a dive in New Hampshire by telling two-thirds of his supporters in New Hampshire to purposefully vote for Paul in New Hampshire in the hopes that Paul can deliver a crushing blow to Romney in the state? After all, wouldn’t Newt take 5% in New Hampshire if it meant that Paul beat Romney by a 36-34 margin in NH because Gingrich’s voters strategically played Mitt like a fiddle? The short-run success of the Ron Paul Revolution may help make the long-run success of the Palin revolution possible.
What continues to be amazing about the media coverage of Mitt Romney is that he will likely win fewer votes in the 2012 Iowa caucuses than the number of votes he won in the 2008 Iowa caucuses despite the fact he’s facing significantly weaker competition in 2012 than he faced in 2008 and yet the media will declare him one of the winners if he finishes in second or third place"

Although I am a strong Palin supporter and, since she is not running at present I have urged conservatives to support Newt Gingrich, I now urge New Hampshire voters (and of course Virginia voters if Newt doesn't get on the ballot there) to support Ron Paul as I similarly urged Iowa caucus goers.

The latest polling from New Hampshire, shows only three candidates with a realistic chance of winning, Unfortunately Gingrich, although polling in third place behind Paul is not one of them. 

However, we have to deal with the world as we find it. I don't think Santorum has, in the remaining time left to make his case, the winning of New Hampshire, or for that matter Florida. If he loses both or even if he does pull out a win in New Hampshire, I can't see him winning anywhere else.

Newt is too far off the pace in New Hampshire as are Bachmann and the rest and surely she is now finished. That leaves Romney and Paul. I will never vote for Romney, and am confident that a large number of conservatives feel the same. 

I am also confident that if he is the nominee then Trump will run and the GOP should at that point give up and just support the down tickets to take the senate and hold the house (see my "Palin candidacy only insurance Trump won't run and ensure Obama's re-election).

Thus, in my opinion the very best thing for the GOP would be for Ron Paul, following his strong Iowa showing, to win or do very well in New Hampshire. If that were the case then Gingrich would have a very good chance in Florida and South Carolina and the possibility of a deadlocked convention would be very real. 

If that happens then what is the reality now, as someone said, the "office seeking the woman" would come into play and Sarah Palin would stand every chance of being drafted in Tampa.

For that reason I urge Palin/Gingrich/Santorum/Bachmann supporters (Perry appears to think he still has a chance, as quixotic as that hope may be) to vote for Ron Paul. I personally would not vote for him in any other states but Iowa and New Hampshire if I had the vote there, but to vote for him in those two states is good common sense in my opinion. 

Paul will not be the nominee but he can, by following up his good showing in Iowa with a win, or more likely a solid second place showing in New Hampshire, help to ensure the right person is. With Romney having effectively having lost in Iowa-even if he squeaks out a tiny plurality- ( 75% voting against you is not a "win") and being, hopefully, held from running away with the New Hampshire primary, he will run up against the "southern wall" where Gingrich should prosper.

The message couldn't be clearer-the overwhelming majority of Republican voters, 75%! in Iowa voted for someone else besides Romney who got the same result he received percentage wise in 2008-25%. he doesn't have a lock on the nomination, he is not the heir apparent next in line and a brokered convention would let the rank and file choose a genuine conservative.

Further the overwhelming number of GOP voters nationwide 75%+ don't want Romney as the nominee;

NB;I note that "Smitty' ( a Virginia voter) at the influential conservative blog 
The Other McCain, appears, under certain circumstances, willing to consider voting for Paul;
"Could I vote for Ron Paul in a primary as a protest against GOP tomfoolery? It sounds mad, but less so over time. . ."

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