Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Why Romney Fell Behind Obama In Rasmussen's Poll-Conservatives Deserted Him Over ChickFillA/Palin

Conservatives4Palin has its resident, from the right, version of the leftist (Daily Kos and now New York Times) psephologist and seer Nate Silver. Styling himself  "technopeasant"
he gives insight to the current state of the polls and is objective in his analysis which gives him credibility.

I will make my own prediction and see a future for him much like Silver's, one of interest from the public then of ascent into the mass media. As an example underpinning this belief here is gives insight into why Romney is, all of a sudden, behind President Obama in the Rasmussen poll.

This is of particular interest as Rasmussen nearly always polls Republicans higher than Dem's except just before an election when it starts to be in line with the other major polls. The reason for that phenomenon I will leave to readers intelligence. Thus for Obama to have a lead in Rasmussen this far out from the election, and so close to the convention means that there may be a major shift in opinion on the right.

What might have caused this shift is the subject of the following analysis by technopeasant. What the Romney team should do about it is,from my point of view and especially as regards Palin, pretty obvious.
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  • technopeasant 

    Daily Kos weekly poll:
    Head to head:
                                                          THIS WEEK             LAST WEEK         DIFF ROMNEY
                                                     OBAMA  ROMNEY      OBAMA ROMNEY
    OVERALL                                   48           46                 48           47               -1
    GOP                                            11           85                  9            89              -6
    INDEPENDENTS                        42          45                 42            48              -3
    WHITES                                      41          53                  42           54              0
    CONSERVATIVES                     19          77                  13           82              -11
    TEA PARTY                                 7           91                   7            89             +2
    Romney F/UF:
                                                        F           UF                 F             UF           DIFFERENCE
    OVERALL                                  42          49                 41            50                +2
    GOP                                           77          17                 81            10               -11
    INDEPENDENTS                      41           46                 38            47              +4
    CONSERVATIVES                    70          24                  74            15              -13
    TEA PARTY                              83           12                 80             10              +1

  • Analysis and conclusions:
    1) I know this is hard to explain but Ted Cruz is absolutely right that the bulk of the TPM is four-square behind Romney and this week's poll shows solid support but what one has to do is to distinguish Tea Party supporters from ordinary conservatives who are not members of the TPM. And amongst the latter group, Romney appears to have taken a huge hit over the past week from his own party and conservatives in general, especially that we are only 3 weeks away from the GOP convention.
    Based on the gain in net favorability among independents I would suggest the bulk of the conservative disaffection towards Romney is among conservative Republicans. And this in turn may explain Rasmussen's surprising poll result yesterday showing Obama 2 points ahead of Romney and ahead for the first time in 34 days.
    Now why have conservative Republicans fallen away from Romney in a manner of speaking?
    Imho, two reasons: Romney being totally dismissive towards the Chick-Fil-A issue and angering conservatives and finally the piece de resistance keeping Sarah Palin at arm's length, treating her like she is a leper and persona non grata and finally denying her a speaking spot or invitation to the convention.
    Again this is proof that Romney has a serious "base" problem on his hands and that shouting the sky is falling, the sky is falling (economy) or that running on a platform of ABO is not going to address Romney's failure to connect with a decent share of conservative Republicans that comprise 72% of the party.
    Am I claiming that a lot of conservatives will not show up on election day? No. But it only takes a small segment of conservatives (3-5%) to stay home, especially in battleground states to tip the electoral 





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