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Thursday, November 15, 2012

Obama Didn't Need Florida/Ohio/Virginia:Election Was Hopeless Waste Of Effort/Money.Palin Genius Staying Out Of It


Florida;             29 EC votes won by   73,596  0.9%


Virginia             13 EC votes won by 115,910   3.0%

Ohio                 18 EC votes  won by 103,481  1.9%



If President Obama had lost these three supposed key states it would not have mattered in the slightest. As the map below shows, if the rest of the states he won stayed the same, and there is no reason to doubt that they would have, he still would have won and won comfortably. Not comfortably  in the Electoral College but comfortably in the fact that the states he won he won handily.


With multi-millions spend in these there "key states" with massive "ground game" get out the vote efforts by both teams President Obama squeaked by in Florida, barely won Ohio, and had a small 3 point lead in Virginia. But at the end of the day, after all the sound and fury, polls, speculation, pontification and analysis
it didn't matter who won these supposed key states.



President Obama not only had the path to victory which eventuated, the Fla/Va/Oh/N.H. one but he also had a path to victory without them, which was New Hampshire/Wisconsin/Iowa/Colorado/Nevada (Pennsylvania was never in doubt/play). On the face of it, since the second path included a larger number of states it would have seemed the harder path as opposed to the supposed  "Ohio firewall". 

But in fact if we look at his huge winning margins, it was the real firewall, and in effect an impossible obstacle for Romney. If, with all the effort and money the Romney team spent they could not pick off one of these states, anyone of which combined with Fla/Va/Oh would have given them the victory then they were beaten before they started. 

The fact that they spent anytime in Pennsylvania shows just how hopeless the must have known the effort was, unless, as it appears may be the case, the entire Romney team became self-deluded by polls which showed them what they wanted to see, rather than seeing the reality of the Wang/Silver analysis


Wisconsin52.8%46.1%
6.7%

Nevada52.3%45.7%
6.6%

New Hampshire52.2%46.4%
5.8%

Iowa52.1%46.5%
5.6%

Pennsylvania52.0%46.8%
5.2%



The Romney/Ryan team had no chance at any time in the campaign, even after the first debate shock, as at no time were they ahead in the Electoral College as presented by the outstanding  prognostications of Dr.Wang and Mr. Silver. They had no chance to overcome the Electoral College double path that Obama had as was proven by the results. 

A sitting president who has the benefit of the doubt about his handling of the economy and has the bully pulpit is in a very strong position-especially against a candidate who was perceived as antagonistic to a large proportion of the voting population and who was not able to define himself as standing for anything easily understand by the voters


Palin now appears to have shown, once again her political nous by not running in a hopeless campaign, and by rejecting a lowly speaking post in Tampa  Thus she emerges unsullied, not tarred by association with a losing campaign and blame by the media and the Romney/GOP Establishment who did everything they could to keep her out of the picture-how did that work out for ya GOPe?












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