Thursday, May 8, 2014

History Of Winning GOP Senate Candidate Joni Ernst Poll Leap From 18% To 56% After Palin's Early Endorsement



Here is the full polling and endorsement history of Governor Palin's and Joni Ernst's triumph in Iowa. The early endorsement date belies the leftist myth that "Palin only endorses when the candidate is a sure thing" and the equally silly comment that "Palin endorses and doesn't follow up by campaign support. 

The final result-a landslide of epic proportions;







Iowa Senate - Republican Primary (June 3)

PollDateSampleErnstJacobsClovisWhitakerSchabenSpread
RCP Average4/3 - 4/14--22.020.76.75.02.3Ernst +1.3
WFB/The Polling Company (R)4/13 - 4/14223 RV2320672Ernst +3
Loras College4/7 - 4/8600 LV1819744Jacobs +1






Above is the previous polling from 
Real Clear Politics which tracks polls. 

Governor Palin endorsed Joni Ernst as candidate for the GOP nomination for senator from Iowa on
March 26th
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/03/26/Sarah-Palin-Endorses-Joni-Ernst-for-U-S-Senate-in-Iowa

As that endorsement worked its way through Ernst went from second place at 18% to first place at 23% a +3 point lead.

In this latest poll from Harper polling Ernst has extended her lead to + 10 points 33% to 23%
 Harper Polling on behalf of American Heartland PAC 

Harper Polling

Iowa Senate GOP Primary Poll on behalf of American Heartland PAC

TO:                 Interested Parties
FROM:           Brock McCleary, President
DATE:            May 2, 2014
RE:                 Key Findings – Iowa Senate Republican Primary Survey


In the Iowa Republican primary race for Senate, Joni Ernst holds a 10% lead over her nearest competitor, Mark Jacobs.  Ernst’s ballot strength is underscored by an image rating of 54% favorable-to-11% unfavorable.

Ernst runs strongest in the Des Moines media market where she leads by 30% over Jacobs (45%-15%).  In the Cedar Rapids market, Ernst leads by 7% (35%-28%).  Jacobs leads in the Davenport market by 22% over Ernst and Sam Clovis.  Clovis holds a 21% lead in the Sioux City market.

Ernst’s lead is nearly identical among both tea party (+9%) and non-tea party voters (+10%).

                   Tea Party       Non-Tea Party
Ernst              31%                 36%
Jacobs            22%                26%
Clovis             18%                 6%
Whitaker       3%                   6%
Schaben         2%                   0%


Self-identified “very conservative” and “somewhat conservative” voters hold overwhelmingly favorable opinions of Joni Ernst.

                                                            Ernst Favorable       Ernst Unfavorable
            Very Conservative              55%                             11%
            Somewhat Conservative    59%                             9%



In summary, with a month to go before the election, Joni Ernst is well-positioned to be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa.

Ballot Test

Q: If the Republican primary election for Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Mark Jacobs, Scott Schaben or Matt Whitaker?
Q: If the Republican primary election for Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Mark Jacobs, Scott Schaben or Matt Whitaker?
Senate Primary Ballot14 %33 %23 %1 %3 %26 %ClovisErnstJacobsSchabenWhitakerNot sure


***********************************************************************************

RCP POLL TO MAY 19th Ernst extends lead to 16 points. This a 16 point increase from the 18% Ernst had prior to Gov.Palin's endorsement


FINAL POLL IN 'BELLWEATHER' DISTRICTS+20points

"Five-way GOP race in Iowa Suffolk poll:

Ernst led all four of her Republican opponents—businessmen Mark Jacobs and Scott Schaben, radio show host Sam Clovis and former U.S. attorney Matt Whitaker—by between 20 and 34 percent. The November election will pit the Republican nominee against Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary, as well as independent and third-party candidates also vying for the Senate seat."



ERNST ENDORSEMENT DATES

PALIN MARCH 26TH
MARCO RUBIO MAY 7th
GARY BAUER MAY 8th
RICK SANTORUM ENDORSES CLOVIS MAY14th
********************************************************************************


VIDEO; (cut and paste to link)

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/04/27/sarah-palin-joni-ernst-iowa/8311707/

DES MOINES REGISTER

Sarah Palin lends star power to Joni Ernst in Iowa


Senate Primary Ballot14 %33 %23 %1 %3 %26 %ClovisErnstJacobsSchabenWhitakerNot sureharperpolling.com

This is the 4th in a series of endorsements by Governor Palin, where she has made the endorsement well ahead of election day and has committed to campaigning, which has seen remarkable movements soon after-from last place to first and then in some instances to substantial leads.

Karen Handel for Georgia LINK  (400% surge)

Ben Sasse for Nebraska LINK   (15 point turnaround)

T W Shannon for Oklahoma LINK   (46 point leap!)

No comments :