Thursday, June 4, 2015

How Populist/Conservative "Jobs" Trump Can Win Electoral College In 2016

A Trump  Conservative/Populist "Reagan Democrat" Candidacy Could Win In The Electoral College

Here is an analysis of the Electoral College victory possibilities for Donald Trump as the Republican nominee the nominee.

With a truly conservative/populist candidate such as Trump, there appears a core base of Electoral College support, which the Goldwater election of 1964 represents (Map 1). If the hopeless year for the GOP of 1996 (Map 2) is examined, that base is bigger still, and it has strengthened even further if (Map 3) the 2008 and 2012 elections are examined. Surely in 2008 there could have been no worse time for a GOP candidate to run since Landon in 1932 given the negativity towards the Bush years, the economic crisis, and the two unpopular wars, yet the base has tripled in size since 1964 and the McCain/Palin ticket performed remarkably well given these deleterious factors.

2016 will see all those factors reversed should the current economic, military and political situation continue as it is now. President Obama, as did President Carter, will own the prevailing climate in November 2016 as will "Obama's third term" Clinton, and the Republican base will be determined to vote in strength, whilst all those areas of support that Obama put together in 2008 with such enthusiasm-youth, anti-war proponents, Blacks, may not be so enthused next time.

Thus, as map 4 shows, if the states which have traditionally been Republican are added to the 2012 base then Trump has every chance to win. The GOP establishment has no credible argument for a middle of the road candidate as there are clear indications that the base would sit on their hands come November 2016, and in that case there is a very strong possibility of significant down ticket losses.

History shows that even with a massive loss, that is no bar to a party winning the presidency four years later as Nixon proved in 1968, Carter in 1976, Roosevelt in 1932, and Kennedy in 1960. Thus the GOP has everything to gain with a Trump candidacy, should he be the nominee especially with a Republican congress, as he would ensure that genuine conservative/”Reagan Democrat” policies would be implemented and the country would be back on its traditional center-right path.

Trump's trump card is that, alone, amongst the other GOP candidates he has significant appeal to "blue collar Democrats" and "Perot voters" as well as bringing to the polls the evangelicals who stayed home in 2012. His message of "jobs for Americans" has potential game changing ramifications in the Electoral college. (Map 5)

This "rust belt" appeal in Ohio and Pennsylvania is potentially so dramatic that Trump could even lose Florida and still win-an unprecedented situation.

Current polls have Trump with 25% of the Black vote, 4 times higher than Romney's percentage. If this is anywhere near the final result then not only are Ohio and Pennsylvania in play, but a landslide of over 300 Electoral College votes (including Florida) is in the making. No other Republican candidate can bring together all these groups and deliver these key states                            

MAP 2 DOLE 1996

                        MAP 3 McCAIN 2008

                                                   Map 4 Romney 2012

                                                   Map 5 Trump 2016