Saturday, June 27, 2015

This Week Sewed Up The Presidency For The GOP 2016

Yes of course the SCOTUS rulings on Obamacare and Same-Sex marriage plus the passage of the TPP Bill were huge setbacks for the Republican base. Note, not the Republican Establishment which enabled President Obama to have the TPP bill passed rather, the Boehner/McConnell coalition which had a great week.

The Democratic "progressive" base had a mixed week with same-sex marriage passing and the Palin family being once again in the wars. Oh how they savored that-the various Democratic luminaries family problems e.g. Biden's son being discharged  out of the navy with drug issues passing them by as "personal."

On the other hand the passage of the TPP bill against the wishes of the unions and many liberal Senators and Nancy Pelosi, saw them rail against 'traitor" Obama.

What this week brought for the Republican base was the potential for the presidency in 2016, and with it a continuing, if not even greater majority in the House and the saving of the narrow majority in the Senate. 

In the latter case that was further augmented by the decision of former Democratic senator for North Carolina Kay Hagan not to run in 2016, which means the likely retention of the previously contestable seat by the GOP.

But more than anything else the actions of an activist judiciary enabling, without the voice of the people being expressed in the ballot, universal same-sex marriage. There followed potentially subsequent opening of private individuals businesses to court directives as to whom they may wish to serve, and the possible implications for religious institutions and personal religious views. 

These actions will have galvanised conservatives.

To that electric shock can be added the spectacle of supposedly conservative Congressional leaders and various lawmakers enabling President Obama. then there was the near insane over-reaction to the Confederate Flag, and all things associated with the Civil War, to the point of calling for exhuming former leaders and withdrawing from sale historical war games videos which featured the flag on the 1862 battlefield!

There have been many calls from conservative leading lights to boycott the 2016 presidential election "if a RINO, especially Jeb Bush  is nominated" as, to quote Hillary, "what difference does it make." That was my opinion as well, which is part of the reason I sat out the 2012 election as did millions of other conservatives and "Perot voters and blue collar Dem's."*

The events of this past week have completely changed my mind. No matter who the Republican nominee is (with one exception, if the party is so mad as to nominate Romney again then I will vote for the Conservatives), even Chris Christie or Jeb Bush, I will vote for them. Of course I would prefer a genuine conservative, but there is too much at stake not to ensure Hillary is defeated.

The 2012 election was lost by wafer thin margins in Florida and narrowly in Virginia and Ohio. With the populist message from the likes of a Donald Trump (whether or not he is the nominee) in front of the missing voters, and the story of the past week relayed to the previous stay at home conservatives and Perot-ite's, then the election will be won. 

That being said, if the message from this week is not loudly, courageously and vehemently stated over and over, and the threat to traditional values and the best interest of what remains of the industrial base workers not highlighted, then the Republican Establishment will deserve to lose. 

Whether in the long run that is a good thing is a matter for another article. The impact and opportunity this past week has presented must not be squandered by a cowardly and gutless leadership running to the middle which worked out terribly in 2012 and would again.


Yes, the Missing Whites Matter

By Sean Trende - July 12, 2013

Read more:

"If we use the census data throughout for all of our projections, we actually end up observing 5.9 million fewer whites than anticipated. We also end up with only about 1.3 million missing non-whites, rather than the 2.6 million missing non-whites from my original calculations, taken from the exit polls.** Again, many of these are Hispanics and Asians, who in reality have lower registration and participation rates than our 55 percent estimate. You can actually use the census data to estimate these things in multiple ways (this runs into some of the peculiarities of the census data I mentioned), but they all end up pointing back to the same conclusion: About 6 million fewer whites voted than we would have expected.
My conclusion is that Republicans should pay attention to the concerns of the millions of alienated working-class voters who sat out the 2012 election because the GOP needs them -- not at the exclusion of minority voters, many of whom are also working class, but in addition to them -- to form a winning coalition in the future."