Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Updated:Donald Trump's Exceedingly Brilliant Poll Day 09/29/15

As is always the case as soon as the pundits trot out their "Trump is on the decline/finished after 1st/2nd debate' Carson/Fiorina/Rubio is threat to him" etc. articles Trump then starts to ascend in the next series of polls.

Noticeable there were fewer "Trump is finished" articles after the 2nd debate than the 1st as so many "pundits" got burned by Trump's subsequent poll rise many were scared to repeat their humiliation. But a number still had a go at it and clearly never learn (*see list below)

So, right on schedule the latest series of polls are outstanding for Trump;

NB; with these latest polls Trump's trend line has flattened out and arrested a decline. I would look to subsequent polls taken after his 60 minutes/O'Reilly interviews and tax policy release to show an upward trend or at least stay stable;

YouGov/Economist 10/01/15 Trump 25 Carson 15=10 point lead

Reuters Ipsos-Trump finishes 5 day tracking in a poll of over 500 Republicans rising to 30%-a 17 point lead

Morning Consult's latest poll gives Trump a 15 point lead at 30% (the naysayers will have trouble with two large polls having the same result)


In the new Suffolk/USA Today poll, another of these polls with a tiny number of respondents and with 18% "undecided". Trump has a 7 point lead at 23% which is 2 points above the touted by the media NBC poll which had him "finished" at 21% and 6 points higher than the last Suffolk poll.

Update;It just gets better for Trump; NB This destroys media meme "when candidates drop out trump will decline"
"Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in Wisconsin, now that Gov. Scott Walker has dropped out of the race, according to a Marquette University Law School poll.
  • GOP results:
    • Trump at 20% among registered GOP voters, followed by Ben Carson (16%), Marco Rubio (14%), Carly Fiorina (11%)
    • Jeb Bush at 7%, Ted Cruz at 5%, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, John Kasich each get 3% support
    • NOTE: Walker led Marquette’s Aug. poll with 25% support; poll shows Trump largest gainer, up from 9% last month
    • *************************************************
Leads Hillary in Louisiana

Louisiana: Trump vs. Clinton
More US Polls »

Tied with Hillary in the "rust belt' state of Michigan which Trump said he could deliver
Michigan: Trump vs. ClintonFOX 2 

Clinton 42, Trump                      42

A 13 point lead in Georgia
Georgia Republican Presidential PrimaryWSB/LandmarkTrump 31, Carson 18, Bush 8, Fiorina 13, Cruz 8, Rubio 9, Huckabee 4, Kasich 2, Paul 1, Christie, Jindal, Graham, Walker, PerryTrump +13

A 5 point lead in North Carolina
North Carolina Republican Presidential PrimaryPPP (D)Trump 26, Carson 21, Fiorina 12, Rubio 10, Cruz 9, Bush 5, Huckabee 6, Kasich 4, Christie 2, Santorum 1, Paul 0, Jindal 1, Graham 0, Walker, Perry

A 5 point lead over Hillary in North Carolina

**************************************************** * Pundits graveyard six new entries;

"The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump?"

Link> By Robert Tracinski


Donald Trump’s slide in the polls is beginning to look real


And Bump doubles down!   > Link

Sept; 27th

Donald Trump is free to cherry-pick his polls. But his decline is clear.


Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?

Trump momentum shows signs of stalling

The real estate mogul is losing steam at the polls, giving rivals hope that a Trump slump is taking hold.

Trump Change

Trump Change: Is Trump Slip Slidin’ Away?