Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Trump's 40 Days & 40 Nights Biblical Level Pundit Thrashing

Update:passes the 30% mark in aggregate polling highest yet and 22.7 points ahead of Jeb Bush

And even worse for the pundits 
Real estate mogul Donald Trump has broadened his lead over his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, a new poll shows, as more Republican voters begin to see the bombastic billionaire in a favorable light.
The Morning Consult survey shows Trump leading among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents with 37 percent of the vote, compared with just nine percent for the second-place finishers, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) are tied for the next spot with six percent. Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) claims 5 percent of the vote, barely ahead of Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) at 4 percent.

Lately it is noticeable that the initial sarcastic anti-Trump memes (he won't run and etc.) have shifted to, "alright he is running but it won't last" with the pundits giving themselves lots of wiggle room by not, of course, giving a time frame. That way if Trump does continue on they can, hopefully, imagine nobody will remember their cloudy crystal ball. 

But I will of course, noting that they enjoy dishing things out but are remarkably thin skinned, arrogant and sarcastic when I presented their previous words of non-wisdom back to them.

There is one Trump meme that they had not given up on though, which is the "We've seen all this before" which is trotted out whenever a new poll comes out that shows Trump increasing his lead over the establishment's choice du jour.

Phillip Bump writing at The Washington Post's 'The Fix' examines the Trump polling phenomenon and concludes, in as elitist tone as is possible even for The Beltway;
 "But there is certainly some precedent for all of this being a very flashy flash in the pan."

He then presents a diagram showing the duration of previous early front runners, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, which shows their leads lasted 41 and 45 days respectively before they descended into the pack and Mitt Romney eventually became the nominee;

Unfortunately for Mr. Bump, and all the other pundits who have seized on his diagram and his tone, not only has Trump's blue line ascended far beyond the peak of Gingrich's poll lead, but he is currently at his highest ever in the aggregate at 25.7%. This gives him a massive 14.7 point lead more than double Carson in second. 

Further he is 16 points ahead of his nearest rival in the latest Quinippiac poll. In fact, Trump has more support than the total polling of his next three rivals combined! Trump has delivered a biblical 40 day thrashing to Mr. Bump et al.*

The Real Clear Politics tracking poll shows Trump first led the GOP candidates on July 20th, on August 2nd Trump will have passed Gingrich's total time in the lead at 45 days. 

The obvious other point is that from their mid-20's polling days of their respective leads both Perry and Gingrich were in sharp decline. Whereas Trump has shown no such descent whatsoever, disregarding some minor falls as different polls are added to the aggregate mix.

Will such a devastating blow to the anti-Trump meme factory, the pundits being hoisted on their own analytical petard, stop a desperate Establishment from continuing on what, so far, has been a massively losing battle and further reduction in their credibility?  

Hardly, but whatever tricks and memes they will try next (beating up for Carson as as a "stop Trump" meme is up next) will have to be better than what has, so pitifully, gone before.
Meanwhile MSNBC's Dem polling outfit PPP Polling
has a new poll out which has Trump at 29%

************************************************ *  Patrick Murray Monmouth Polling

Henry Olsen National Review

    Donald Trump Polls -- Data Suggest He Won't Remain Front ...


    Aug 22, 2015 - Trump's early lead doesn't mean as much as the media say, because presidential nominations are not the typical one-day primary.

    The Rise and Fall of Shooting-Star Candidates 

    Lynn Vavreck New York Times


    The Trump moment won't last — just check history | MinnPost


Dara Lind at Vox (I mean...really Dara???)

"The latest GOP poll has Trump in the lead — but it's terrible news for his campaign"


Donald Trump has already peaked