Sunday, January 31, 2016

Latest Trump Polls; Iowa/New Hampshire/Nationwide Summary (Leads In All)

Franklin Pierce Poll New Hampshire
Franklin Pierce New Hampshire poll Trump + 5 since last weekspoll Kasich collapses to 8% Trump 38% Cruxz 13% Rubio ("surge") 10%









Nationwide YouGuv/Economist Trump's new ceiling must be 50% now







And of course the "Gold Standard" Selzer Iowa poll


At 37.4% This is trump's highest aggregate so far



Saturday, January 30, 2016

Cruz "You Fail" Iowa Mailer Dumbest Thing In Politics I have Ever Seen

UPDATE Iowa Secretary  of State condemns Cruz campaign mailer; "misleading mailer from Cruz for president campaign"



I have seen George McGovern back his VP partner Thomas Eagleton 1000% after it turned out he had not disclosed electric shock therapy. I saw McGovern Choose Sargent Shriver as his replacement VP (because he was a Kennedy family member) who turned out to be an utterly useless chatterbox.

I've seen Edmund Muskie break down in tears over a slight, Barry Goldwater's campaign slogan "Extremism is no vice" Saw Dukakis a tank commander, Gary Hart with his mistress the disaster that was John Edwards and a myriad of other campaign disasters but nothing, nothing compares to this bonehead play.

Team Cruz and it's candidate was supposed to be the brightest and the best but, just as is often the case hubris or incompetence or a combination of both  appears to be doing them in-helped along by Donald Trump the master who must have chewed up and spat out similar rivals over decades.

To have this come out two days before voting is appalling team work. Cruz must bear a large degree of responsibility for the actions of the team he created and who work in an atmosphere of his creation too

RedState and other avenues confirm that the Cruz team actually sent out mailers showing the recipient if their neighbors had voted and giving them an "F" for fail if they hadn't. The message is that they had better mend their ways and make sure they vote for Cruz.

Who in their right mind could devise such a dumb ploy-how can an invasion of privacy and a personal attack on peoples right to vote or not vote as they saw fit be defended? It is not surprising that RedState, a vociferous Cruz outlet should initially have considered it a hoax (it is now confirmed as real)but then again who could have believed it no matter who they supported?

If this doesn't finish Cruz of then he is truly Teflon coated-but surely this is the last straw.
From RedState (whose comment section has some unhappy campers)
Read the full article at LINK

cruz-mailer-3
A little earlier tonight, some tweets started circulating from people in Iowa saying they had received mailers from the Ted Cruz campaign giving them a “report card” of sorts, grading them on their participation in caucuses. There was a quite a bit of debate going on with people suggesting the whole thing was a hoax and others saying it was a slick Photoshop job. Everything is conspiracy these days on the Internet.
Several people who work in the business of campaigns said the mailers were real and that it is not the first time a tactic like this has been used. Of course, this is in the age of the Internet and thinking this kind of thing is not going to spread around and fast is just flat out ignorant. It is going to happen.
Here are some photos of the mailers:
cruz_Mailer
cruz-mailer-2
Despite the conspiracy theories, the Cruz campaign has confirmed these mailers are theirs and did send them out.

ALSO AT CONSERVATIVE TREEHOUSE LINK

Unbelievable – Ted Cruz Campaign Sends Out Personal “Shaming Letters” To Iowa Voters…

update-1It has now been confirmed – The photograph of Ted Cruz campaign shaming letters is legit (see below).  The letters are officially from the Ted Cruz campaign.
Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler confirmed to IJ Review that the mailer was theirs in a phone call Friday evening, saying that the targeting had been “very narrow, but the caucuses are important and we want people who haven’t voted before to vote.”  (link)

Some Tweets
Hey your brilliant public shaming campaign has been exposed, good luck, buddy ,

Unbelievable - Ted Cruz Campaign Sends Out Personal "Shaming Letters" To Iowa Voters... via thelastrefuge2
is being conservative when he's sending out shame cards?





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Friday, January 29, 2016

A Roundup Of Media, Left Right Center Swooning Over Trump's "Bravura" Debate

No doubt there is some nefarious purpose behind all this admiration from the Main Stream Media towards Trump all of a sudden but, for the moment, let's give them the benefit of the doubt and believe they are shell shocked, awed, cowed and knocked off their feet.

Of course if/when Trump is the nominee the same cast of characters will revert back to the norm and find every possible fault with him and none with Hilary-but that's how things are. On the other hand Trump, and the social media, and the man in the street is now circumventing the Establishment and the elitist media so all their machinations may be as useless against Trump as they have been too date.


Here's a roundup of praises


 **********************************************************************
Mathew Yglesias goes full Trumper at Vox


Donald Trump won the debate Floating above the fray, Trump was perfectly positioned to grow even stronger just days from the beginning of voting.

Trump was all over the debate without being at the debate

Trump himself, meanwhile, escape unscathed from the attacks. There's now only tune anyone in the field is singing, and it's a tune that he wrote — with a message that he delivered on his own terms in a setting of his own choosing. It was a bravura debate performance. One of the best I've seen from any candidate in any election. And he wasn't even there."
****************************************************************************
Maxwell Tani at Business Insider and HERE

"Donald Trump dominated the start of the Fox News debate without even being there"

Without attending the Thursday-night Fox News Republican debate amid a high-profile boycott, Donald Trump dominated the early conversation.
Donald Trump wasn't onstage at the Thursday Fox News Republican debate.
But his presence was certainly felt.
He was, quite literally, right down the road, hosting his own event. He dominated the social-media conversation. And from the minute the debate started, Trump's rivals were forced to confront Trump's absence amid a high-profile boycott.
"For one night, he beat Fox News," wrote NBC senior political editor Mark Murray on Twitter Though Trump was mentioned and referred to occasionally throughout the debate, he dominated the online conversation surrounding it.
Halfway through the debate, Twitter said 37% of the conversation about candidates was dedicated to Trump. Cruz placed second with 18%. 
Trump also garnered the most searches in Google.
**************************************************************
The Observer Ross Barkan

Donald Trump Crushed Fox, But Can He Win Iowa?

It was another big night for The Donald. It was also a reminder that when it comes to stealing a show, no one does it better than The Donald.

Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee joined him on stage after their appearance on the debate’s undercard. It was apropos, in a way: the two men, nominally rivals to Mr. Trump in the GOP primary, won Iowa in 2012 and 2008 respectively.
Each were now grateful to bask in the glow of Mr. Trump, the ultimate spectacle, with only Mr. Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, making a show of being a competitor by edging to the side of the podium so photographs wouldn’t catch him behind a Trump sign.Mr. Trump will be well on his way to winning the nomination, and perhaps permanently rewriting the rules of campaign politics and press coverage. 
************************************************************************
Maeve Reston CNN

Donald Trump throws a grand old party

No one ever really doubted that Donald Trump could pull off a major counter-programing feat -- even when competing with a GOP debate that was expected to draw millions of viewers.
He did it Thursday night, dazzling a crowd of hundreds of enthusiastic supporters by announcing that he had raised more than $6 million for veterans in one day -- $1 million of it from his own checkbook. "We love our vets," he said.
In a somewhat extraordinary move for someone who has reveled in taunting his rivals, he invited Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum -- two candidates who had been relegated to an earlier undercard debate -- to join him on stage to speak about veterans issues. While appearing generous, it was also politically savvy maneuver given that the two men were the respective winners of the past two Iowa caucuses, but stuck in the bottom-tier this time around.
Huckabee and Santorum are still well-liked and admired by core Republican voters here in Iowa, even if their campaigns have failed to ignite this time. And their presence on stage with Trump could go a long way toward negating the criticisms from Trump's rivals like Ted Cruz, whose allies have claimed that Trump will be punished by Iowans on Monday for skipping the debate stage.
Trump supporters who waited hours in the cold to see him roundly disputed the notion that he would see any attrition in his support in Iowa, where he has led in recent polls.
In interviews, many voters here said the controversy was yet another example of Trump bucking the establishment -- a trait that has endeared him to them from the beginning -- and that they were proud of him standing up to Fox News.
Ernie Ratcliffe, an army veteran who served two tours in Vietnam, drove in from Kansas City for the rally, scoffed when asked for his thoughts on Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's contention that Trump skipped the debate because he was afraid of taunts or difficult questions from the Fox moderators or rival candidates.
"Donald Trump isn't scared of anything. He's not scared of absolutely anything," said Ratcliffe, who has signed up with his wife to call New Hampshire voters on Trump's behalf next week. "Donald J. Trump said he was going to do this and he's done it. He's a man of his word."
******************************************************************************
Frank Bruni New York Times

G.O.P. Debate Stars the Ghost of Donald Trump

In the hours before it, CNN could speak of almost nothing but Trump. It kept flashing footage of the fan-packed rally he had orchestrated just a couple of miles from the debate, to compete with it.
“There are thousands who have waited hours throughout the day,” the anchor Erin Burnett marveled.
When her colleague Anderson Cooper then interviewed a CNN correspondent at the debate itself, the first question he asked her was about how the debaters were likely to adjust to a Trump-less event.

And here I am, writing about Trump, Trump, Trump.
“His shadow is looming large, even though he is not there,” Cooper said to the correspondent, then he turned to the network’s panel of political analysts, who talked about Trump, Trump, Trump.
It’s impossible not to. It would be irresponsible not to, because believe it or not, hate it or love it, he’s the Republican campaign’s great and sobering lesson to the country, telling us things about its discontents that we didn’t properly understand. He’s the campaign’s undeniable force of gravity, exerting a pull on everyone and everything around him.
What the debate made clear is that Trump is all fox.
*****************************************************************
Michael Scherer TIME

Everything Changes When Republicans Debate Without Donald Trump

The truth of the seventh debate is that what took place on that stage over those two hours did not reflect the reality of either the Republican nomination fight or, at least for the moment, this country. That could be found a few miles away, where Trump had gathered his own multitudes at a separate venue in Des Moines, with his own network cameras, and a couple other candidates, in protest. The Republican frontrunner, rather than fading, has outgrown the circus he spoiled and set off on his own.
**************************************************************************
The Hill "Winners And Losers" Niall Stanage
With just four days left before the Iowa caucuses, how did it all shake out? 
WINNERS 
Businessman Donald Trump 
The GOP front-runner was taking a big gamble by declining to participate in the debate. If one of his rivals — especially Ted Cruz — had hit a few pitches out of the park, Trump’s absence could have seemed like an act of gross political negligence.
That didn’t happen. Cruz offered an indifferent performance. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio did better overall but struggled in one of the debate’s most memorable moments — a prolonged exchange over immigration reform.
In a more general sense, too, the debate was simply less compelling without Trump — love him or loathe him. 
Co-moderator Megyn Kelly described the mogul in the debate’s opening moments as “the elephant not in the room,” and his absence loomed over the entirety of proceedings. 
That will be just fine with him. 



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Thursday, January 28, 2016

Fourth Iowa Poll In A Row Trump Leads; 8 Point Lead PPP Post Palin Endorsement

Astounding poll out of Michigan
An exclusive Mitchell FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan finds that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton hold large leads over their nearest GOP and Democratic opponents, respectively.

In a head to head matchup, Trump holds a 47 - 43 percent lead over Clinton with 10 percent undecided.
The latest Mitchell poll data has Trump holding a 3-1 lead over his two closest opponents in the Michigan Republican Presidential Primary. 
Trump has 51 percent compared to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz who is in second place at just 15 percent and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio who is in third with 12 percent.  They are followed by Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Michigan native Dr. Ben Carson, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie all at five percent.


Iowa Sensation Trump by 8
Among voters who say their mind is totally made up, Trump's lead over Cruz grows to 12 points at 36/24
  



Iowa by 7 New Hampshire by 19 and 15 South Carolina by 16  Pennsylvania by 10

Three Polls In A Row With 7 Point Lead For Donald Trump


Wisconsin Trump by 6 points
Wisconsin Republican Presidential PrimaryMarquetteTrump 24, Cruz 16, Rubio 18, Carson 8, Christie 5, Paul 3, Fiorina 3, Bush 2, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0



New Hampshire latest



Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Today's Iowa and New Hampshire Polls.Trump Opens 7 Point Iowa lead Massive lead In New Hampshire


The previous Iowa Monmouth Poll December 6th Cruz 24 Trump 19

 

January 26th Trump 30%  Cruz 23%  Trump up 11 points since previous poll



In Iowa the Trump trend is clear. Cruz has dropped 6 points from in 2 days




Iowa trendline line





In New Hampshire Trump has a 17 point lead





Trump totally dominant in New Hampshire


Monday, January 25, 2016

Trump Rockets To Massive 19 Point Lead in New Hampshire 7 In Iowa In Today's' Crucial Polls



Franklin Pierce Poll   New Hampshire

In the Republican race, Donald Trump has strengthened his support among likely GOP voters and he now leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by a 33-14 percent margin, the poll reveals.



Sanders and Trump are now the clear favorites in the Granite State as voters begin to firm up their choices, but an upset in the Iowa caucus next Monday could still shake things up.
The Vermont senator now leads Clinton 55-39, the poll says. Clinton’s favorable rating among likely Democratic primary voters dropped from 83 to 74 percent since a December Franklin Pierce/Herald poll, when Sanders held just a two-point lead.
The former secretary of state’s plunge in popularity comes as the poll shows Sanders now viewed favorably by an astronomical 90 percent of the 407 likely Democratic primary voters. Just nine percent of voters view the Vermont senator unfavorably.
Nearly eight in 10 likely Democratic voters indicate they have made a “firm” choice, while 82 percent of Sanders’ supporters say they won’t change their minds.
That indicates Clinton faces an extremely difficult challenge in closing the double-digit gap against Sanders before primary day on Feb. 9.
Trump, the longtime GOP frontrunner, has increased his lead over Cruz from 14 points in December to 19 points in the new Franklin Pierce-Herald poll, conducted Jan. 20-24 among 444 likely GOP primary voters.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich has climbed to third place with 12 percent support, while former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush gets just 9 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio dropped to 8 percent. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also dropped in the last month and now has just seven percent of the vote, according to the poll.
More than half of GOP voters now say they have made a firm choice, while 76 percent of Trump’s supporters say they won’t change their minds.
The new poll shows the billionaire businessman getting his highest favorability rating yet in New Hampshire at 58 percent, while 39 percent of voters view him negatively.
And 55 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the Granite State now say he’ll be the eventual nominee, a sharp increase from 38 percent in December.
Cruz’s popularity has dropped in the last month, with 54 percent viewing him favorably and 39 percent having an unfavorable opinion.
Trump’s attempt to raise questions about Cruz’s birth in Canada do not appear to be having a major effect, with about two-thirds of likely GOP voters saying
***********************************************************************************


ARG’s poll showed support for Trump at 33 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers, while 26 percent supported Cruz. That's a stronger lead for Trump than the one recorded by the same poll earlier this month, which showed Trump beating Cruz 29 percent to 25 percent.
With only one other candidate, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), scraping into double digits at 11 percent support, this poll also suggests that the Iowa GOP caucus has turned into a two-person race between Trump and Cruz. That conclusion echoes most recent Iowa and nationwide polling. It's also consistent with other polls suggesting Trump is gaining the upper hand in the hard-fought Iowa contest.
The ARG poll was conducted from Jan. 21-24 by live telephone interviews of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

The Outlines Of A Bloomberg/Bush Ticket Take Shape

UPDATE. (Bloomberg run inevitable)




Update#2 

Bloomberg Willing To Spend $1B On Possible Presidential Bid


 CBS2’s Marcia Kramer reported. Sources close to Bloomberg told Kramer the former mayor is ramping up a possible presidential run regardless of who gets the Democratic nomination, eyeing an Independent third-party bid."

It's going to happen-he's 72 with $30 billion and his clock is running out. It'll be the best thing for Trump. If its Sanders as the Dem's nominee it will be 50 states for GOP



Update; Media continues push concerning viability
Yahoo

"If Bloomberg runs, he’ll be the richest presidential candidate ever"

******************************************************************************

From Breitbart


"Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush praised former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg today, calling him a “good man” and a “patriot.”

Jeb Bush: Michael Bloomberg A ‘Good Man’ And A ’Patriot’

During an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper this morning, Bush was asked what he thought of the news that Bloomberg was considering entering the 2016 presidential race.

Mike Bloomberg is a good man,” Bush said. “We disagree on a whole lot of things, but he’s a good person and he’s a patriot and wants the best for the country.”
When asked if he would consider supporting Bloomberg if Trump was the nominee, Bush said it was “not going to happen.”

The controversial liberal mayor has spent millions of dollars promoting gun control, and has proposed many nanny state provisions in New York City, such as banning sodas over 16 ounces, reducing sodium levels in food, banning trans-fats, and even to ban loud headphones.

Bush served as a Bloomberg Family Foundation director from March 2010 to 2014, an organization that worked with liberal groups like Planned Parenthood and the Sierra Club.
In 2015, Bloomberg praised Bush as one of the candidates he thought would best lead the country as president."

As you can clearly see, Bloomberg Family Foundation Member Jeb Bush evaded the question as to whether or not he would not support Donald Trump if he were the nominee-classic politician speak. 

He could have simply stated "I am a proud Republican running for the Republican nomination, I believe wholeheartedly I am going to win but if i didn't I would of course support our proud party's nominee as I've pledged to do, as has Donald Trump."

But no, he's left plenty of wiggle room for "I didn't think it was going to happen but now it has, yes I will join with Mayor Bloomberg who I respect as a true patriot to save this great country of ours and etc."

Where are we at with the Bloomberg third party run at this point? There have been a number of trial balloons floated in the last few days here and here  here and earlier here These, mostly east coast media, give a pretty wide examination of the situation which basically boils down to; 

1. Bloomberg has the money

2. If any of Trump/Cruz/Sanders are the nominees there could be an opening for a centrist

The roots of this go back to 2010 where, again,the New York Times and particularly Kathleen Parker floated the concept and "named names." Hot Air ran an aptly titled piece with insiders background;


"Oh my: New RINO/DINO alliance ready to take America by storm." 



That the possibility of a Bloomberg run is taken
very seriously this time is shown by the sharp reaction from left and right-ish with both Vox and Politico attacking it as a threat to Hillary and Sanders. Bizarrely the very odd Anthony Weiner whose wife works for Hillary advises that Bloomberg could win.

Could Bloomberg win? of course not. If you scroll down through the link above there are a series of Electoral College maps which in Bloomberg's best case scenario show the impossibility of him winning. 

What he can do of course is to deny one of the major candidates a win, or throw the election into the House for the Republican majority to choose the Republican candidate as president, which is why the attacks from the left of course.

If Trump is the nominee I would expect Bloomberg to run and for Trump to win-who knows Trump might even win New York state which would be beyond ironic. If Sanders is the nominee the Republican victory would be of epic proportions-quite possibly a 50 state sweep.

If Jeb (and I want to make it clear by "Jeb" I mean either him or any Establishment Republican of high profile) joins with Bloomberg, which I don't doubt for a second could happen, the transition for the Republican party from Establishment to truly populist/conservative would be complete. It is a consummation devoutly to be wished.  
"Run Mike Run"




See also my June article

If Hillary Falters; A Bloomberg Independent Run 2016?




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