Friday, January 1, 2016

UPDATE;Primary Win Confirms Premise;Trump And Only "Jobs" Trump Can Win Michigan And With It The Presidency

Donald Trump won the Michigan primary by over 153,000 votes and a huge 11.7 points

He beat off a challenge from John Kasich who was, according to some polls, leading him in the state;Both the Democratic and Republican Michigan primaries were open and Independents and Democrats could vote in the GOP Primary.

"Kasich, the two-term governor of Ohio who viewed Michigan as home turf, vied with Ted Cruz for a distant second to Trump but slipped to a disappointing third-place finish. Kasich had spent more time in Michigan than any other candidate—so much so that he joked at various events in recent days that he might have to start paying taxes in the state."

The Democratic turnout was  1,193,169

The Republican Turnout was 1,332,742 up 30% from the 2012 primary.

Thus the GOP saw 139,573 more voters than in the Democratic primary. The fact that the exit polls overwhelmingly advised that voters were looking for someone outside the traditional establishment;

"What are your feelings about the federal government?
  • Angry: 32 percent.
  • Dissatisfied: 55 percent.
  • Satisfied: 8 percent.
  • Enthusiastic: 2 percent"

This indicates strongly that Trump not only lifted the GOP turnout but attracted a solid tranche of Democrat's and Independents.

"Trump won a plurality of the 31 percent of self-described independents in Michigan’s GOP primary

Perhaps the most notable statistic of the night came from Macomb County, ground zero for the “Reagan Democrats” of yore. In the 1980s, these white, working-class voters defected from a Democratic party they felt had abandoned their economic interests with progressive stances on issues such as affirmative action and immigration. Macomb County’s politics have fluctuated in years since, but it remains a bellwether for Michigan and a symbol of the state’s blue-collar electorate. Trump blew away the competition there, taking 48 percent in a four-way contest"

The premise of the original article below, that Trump, by attracting a higher GOP turnout and exactly the independents and "blue collar Democrats" in hard hit Michigan, can put the state and its 16 electoral votes in play (see maps below) has been solidly reinforced by the actual voting.

Trump leads Hillary head to head in Florida and if that was the outcome in the general election Michigan and Ohio, plus the "Romney states" would ensure Trump's election.

Trump is the only logical candidate choice as he is the only one who could carry those three crucial states and give the GOP the win
Original article
Firstly some media coverage of Donald Trump's most recent public meeting in Michigan;

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump greets guests at a campaign rally on December 21, 2015 in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

'Detroit News'

"Donald Trump vowed Monday (12/22) to pressure Ford Motor Co. to reverse its $2.5 billion expansion of manufacturing operations in Mexico if he’s elected president.

The Republican presidential front-runner continued his months-long campaign trail criticism of the Dearborn automaker during a speech Monday night before a raucous crowd of 8,100 supporters who packed a suburban Grand Rapids basketball arena."A consistent crowd draw
Outside of the arena, long lines snaked through the parking lot of the events center, resembling the huge crowds then-Sen. Barack Obama attracted in 2008 during his history-making campaign for the White House. Dozens donned the “Make America Great Again” hats the Trump campaign has used to market the billionaire’s unorthodox candidacy.


Thousands of women — the very people the mainstream media says shouldn’t like Donald Trump — turned out to see the Republican frontrunner at a packed Michigan rally in Grand Rapids Monday night.
Multiple sources tell The American Mirror over 30,000 tickets were distributed for a venue that held less than 10,000 people.
We were on hand and talked to several women — including one sporting a “Hillary for Prison” t-shirt — about why they support Trump.

Faces in the crowd: See who was at Donald Trump's rally in Michigan (more at LINK)

A Trump  Conservative/Populist "Reagan Democrat" Candidacy Could Win In The Electoral College

Here is an analysis of the Electoral College victory possibilities for Donald Trump as the Republican nominee.

With a truly conservative/populist candidate such as Trump, there appears the ability to add to core base of Electoral College support which the Romney election of 2012 represents (Map 2). 

Should the current economic, military (possible terrorist) and political situation continue as it is now President Obama, as did President Carter in 1980, will own the prevailing climate in November 2016 as will "Obama's third term" Clinton.The Republican base will be determined to vote in strength, whilst all those areas of support that Obama put together in 2008 with such enthusiasm-youth, anti-war proponents, Blacks, may not be so enthused next time.

Thus, as map 3 shows, if Michigan which has traditionally been Democratic is added to the 2012 base, plus marginal Florida and Ohio, then Trump has every chance to win. The GOP establishment has no credible argument for a middle of the road candidate as there are clear indications that the base would sit on their hands come November 2016, and in that case, there is a very strong possibility of significant down ticket losses.

Thus the GOP has everything to gain with a Trump candidacy, especially with a Republican congress, as he would ensure that genuinely conservative "Reagan Democrat” policies would be implemented without a veto and the country would be back on its traditional center-right path.

Trump's trump card is that alone amongst the other GOP candidates he has significant appeal to "blue collar Democrats" and "Perot voters" as well as bringing to the polls the Evangelicals who stayed home in 2012. His message of "jobs for Americans" has potential game changing ramifications in the Electoral college. (Map 3)

This "rust belt" appeal in Ohio (and Pennsylvania) is potentially so dramatic that Trump could even lose Florida and still win-an unprecedented situation.

Using our best current guide, the state by state polling, Trump is well placed. If this map #1 holds and Trump wins just Ohio and Michigan that would give him 278 Electoral College votes 9 more than required. As per map#3 he could even lose Colorado and the 269/269 tie would be decided, in his favor, by the Republican House.
Map #1

Map#2                                   ROMNEY 2012

          Map#3            TRUMP 2016


Are relatively large swing possible in Michigan? Recent gubernatorial elections show they most certainly are; 

Michigan1 2006 Governor  Dem 56.3% GOP 42.3%

Michigan2 2010 Governor  Dem 39.9% GOP 58.1%

And does recent presidential elections give any hope for Trump in 2016? Here are Michigan's last four presidential election results.

G.W. Bush finished only 2.2 points behind in 2004. Given the Dem's vote decline from 2008 to 2012 and the massive economic dislocation in the state Trump clearly has the opportunity of winning if he is the nominee. A lot will be riding on Trump's message of "Jobs" that reform can win the Black vote is strikingly apparent from the history of Detroit.

Fifty straight years of Black Mayors in Detroit was overturned when a White Democratic candidate won against a Black Democrat on the issue of an end to the status quo. This is Trump's message and something Hillary can't answer with any credibility whatsoever ("Obama's third term.") If Trump (and no other Republican can do it with authority) hits that message hard he can win Michigan and, almost certainly, the presidency.