Friday, February 26, 2016

Palin Made Cruz In Texas Will She End Cruz In Texas?

"Ted Cruz at CPAC: I Would Not Be in Senate Without Sarah Palin"BREITBART

From Senator' Cruz's own mouth, he would not be a senator were it not for Palin's endorsement at a crucial point in his campaign, and of course he would not now be a presidential candidate without her impetus.
From Cruz's interview with Kevin Scholla as reported by US4Palin

Here is remarkable polling history for Cruz.

January 2011 Dewhurst 23% Cruz 3% (Dewhurst +20)


Post PALIN endorsement poll May 21st

Democrat Pollster PPP Polling (D)  on May 24th
Dewhurst 46%  Cruz 29%  (Dewhurst +17)
PPP also found this result;

"Even though Rick Perry's candidate is likely to defeat Sarah Palin's, her endorsement polls much more positively. 36% of voters say they're more inclined to back a Palin supported candidate to 21% who consider it a negative.

Subsequent to Sarah Palin's endorsement of him, GOP candidate for senator from Texas Ted Cruz has completed the astonishing journey from polling at only 3% to being in the final run-off. Cruz having kept the previously presumed winner Dewhurst below 50% in tonight's primary battle.


 92% reportingTed Cruz

445,483   33.60%
David Dewhurst

Palin TV support

Final Result

It is clear beyond any doubt that Cruz owed his election to Palin's endorsement as do so many others e.g. Haley/Sasse/Fischer et al. Further Palin's endorsement at an absolute crucial time in Donald Trump's campaign very likely made the difference between his second place in Iowa and possible oblivion behind Cruz and Rubio there see "Palin's Endorsement  Saved Trump's Campaign For New Hampshire."

If Cruz gets less than 50%+1 of the vote in Texas on Super Tuesday then the delegates are apportioned and with Trump running from-15 to a draw in current polling that result seems likely. So at best Cruz would come out of Texas with a small delegate lead from the state whilst Trump is on the path to garner huge delegate wins across all the other states on the day.

If however Trump can get to 50% with Palin's active participation in Texas he would likely knock Cruz out of the campaign. Palin is currently tied up with her husband Todd's Iron Dog race in Alaska which means much to them both but if the call came I would be confident she would respond such is her nature.

It may be that the Trump team see a Cruz still active but rendered ineffectual an asset to keep alive in the campaign to split the vote with Rubio until Florida where Rubio looks like losing to Trump. But such matters are for the campaign to decide. 

What is certain is that if Palin were called upon and made the difference between Cruz finishing first or second it would be beyond ironic and would be a testament to her enormous power. She endorsed Cruz and made him a senator, she endorsed Trump (Cruz; “Sarah Palin picks winners,") and could help make him a president whilst keeping Cruz in the senate.