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Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Palin's Endorsement Saved Trump's Campaign For New Hampshire
are usually worth a bucket of warm saliva-Palin said as much when
asked about her endorsement of Donald Trump "I don't think
endorsements mean all that much she advised "reflecting on the
was, however an exception. If she hadn't endorsed Trump he would
have finished behind Rubio (who he finished only 1.3 points ahead
of) and his campaign would be in serious jeopardy. I don't think she
cost him a vote and if she gave him 1% (Rasmussen showed her
endorsement was a net positive) that 1% may just have made the
difference between going to NH in a good position and being written
off by all the media with no momentum at all going into the crucial
Michael JN Thompson wrote "It is clear that Palin saved
Trump from losing by double digits in Iowa. He wouldn't have broke
20% that's for sure. In
terms of the Governor’s impact, Trump won West Iowa, the region
where the Governor has been the strongest and where Steve King’s
congressional district in Iowa is located."
after Palin endorsed Trump Nicolle
The New York Times summed it up in one sentence "(Donald
he come out on top in Iowa, he has her to thank."
as it turned out clung to second place by 1.3 points over Rubio so
the reality is Trump has Palin to thank, not for the win but for
saving his campaign but for his placing second and having
only one less caucus vote than Cruz.
confirmation from an unimpeachable source-the Cruz camp;
were signs that the right was not united behind Cruz. Former
vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin, a tea party and evangelical
a splashy rally in Ames.The nightly surveys conducted by the Cruz
campaign showed that Palin was a boon for Trump — 67 percent of
Iowa Republicans had heard of her endorsement, and of them, 19
percent were more likely to support Trump. Only 13 percent were less
net 6 point positive differential is exactly the same as
Rasmussen found in an analysis prior to the vote;
6% of Iowa voters say Palin's endorsement helps Trump"
Iowa Republicans conservative voters particular, a Palin endorsement
is a plus" 59%
of Republicans, hold a favorable view of Palin This includes 25%
with a Very Favorable view"
11% of conservative Iowa voters believe Palin's endorsement of Trump
will help him."
putting the lie to the MSM meme that Palin is "unpopular"Rasmussen further found "Fifty-nine
percent (59%) of Republican voters say former Alaska Governor Sarah
Palin shares the values of most GOP voters throughout the nation.
effect of Palin's endorsement
was dramatically illustrated, by of all people the
"Morning Joe" consultant who produced a graph of
the effect of her endorsement on the betting markets. The
rise from Trump being behind to a sharp increase ahead is
dramatic-and these are people who put their own money on the line.
effect of Palin's endorsement amongst Iowa women was immediate and
20% increase and amongst Tea Party Supporters a striking 33%
two graphs from Real Clear Politics show the aggregate "Poll of
Polls" results for the various candidates. On January 19th the
date of Palin's speech in Iowa Trump and Cruz were within one point
of each other. On January 26th when the full effect of the
endorsement was felt Trump had a near six point lead.
Trump lost by only three
be considered remarkable. He hardly used Palin on the ground to
supplement what turned out to be a weak get out the vote effort (she
campaigned for him in Tulsa which in retrospect seem a wasted
effort) and her election day efforts were mostly tied up with
national media rather than the retail campaigning at which she is so
adept. I reviewed what went wrong with Trump's campaign "Lessons
not using Palin to full advantage can certainly be added to the
Palin's endorsement there were over 10,000 articles across the media
99% of which were negative to hateful. Only, in a round about way,
did Nicolle Wallace and Rasmussen get it right as did the Washington
Post after the election.
from the Post there is not a word of acknowledgement of Palins'
contribution just continued denigration. That the Trump team might
ignore the media onslaught and use Palin to the fullest extent
possible in South Carolina (whose Governor, Nikki Haley owed her
election to Palin and is now supporting Rubio) seems good advice.
Trump is still a credible force in New Hampshire, rather than
limping in after a distant third finish in Iowa, should reinforce
the debt his team owes to Palin****and hopefully concentrates
their minds about
the vital role of good old fashion meet the folks retail
Trump soldiers on to the nomination the power of Palin with the
great mass of ordinary folks across America, despite the most
vicious efforts of a rabid media and Establishment (whose force
Trump has now experienced) must surely commend her as running mate.
Hmm @realDonaldTrump got 15,000 more votes than Iowa winner Rick Santorum and 500 more than Iowa winner Mike Huckabee #YUGE
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