Saturday, July 23, 2016

Trump/Clinton Post Convention Polls "Bounces" 8/8 Tracking Polls Show Clear Clinton lead


See why the USC/Dornslife Poll is the "gold standard" of polling; Pat Caddell "Tracking polls tend to be much closer than one offs"
It is pointless to cherry pick (if such were available at this juncture) polls that run contrary to the obvious if one wishes to keep credibility and not simply be a partisan shill like 99% of the media/blogs.  If the "honest' tracking polls show a Clinton lead outside the margin of error, as one does, then clearly she is leading.

The trackers do not show the ridiculous 15-16 point leads that some clearly wrongly weighted standard polls do but the drift of momentum is clear. Whether this has a substantial degree of timeline is to be seen over the next week but obviously the post DNC standard "bounce' plus unrelenting media attacks have hurt Trump in the polls (and in some state polling).

"The Last Refuge" sees a media/poll conspiracy (scroll down at link) and certainly in respect of the standard polls that has credibility but the trackers show, outside of the MSM narrative, a genuine lead for Clinton although at a much lower level.

USC Poll day 10 after DNC finds 8/7/16 Hillary up 4.1 points from the final day (40.6%).Clinton peaked on 8/4/16 at 45.2% (+4.6 points from end of DNC)  

Trump has declined from his post convention peak of 47.4% to now 44.0% a decline of 3.4 points. On the positive side Trump arrested severe decline and appears to have stabilized although he is in danger of dropping below 40% for the first time.

Hillary rose 0.1 from the previous day but both have been around the same for three last three days . The next few polls will indicate if Hillary's "bounce" is done and if Trump will stabilize at around this level or rise.
I will continue this post convention analysis until there is some clarity of direction for either.

TRUMP     43.8   -1.2 Points

                          CLINTON  45.0%  +1.2 Points

As advised I'm biased but realistic, the PPD tracker shows significant rise for Clinton from 1.7 to 5.9 points in two days 
Clinton 47.3 % Trump 41.4%

FWIW Reuters tracking also shows Trump arrested his decline on 7/30 and has risen for five consecutive days to be only 2.4 points behind from 9.6 and Hillary decline commenced on 7/31 from where she has fallen 2.3 points and declined 3 days in a row


The explanation as to why Ipsos Reuters polls were so distorted against Trump and when they started favoring him and turned against Hillary they were changed;

REUTERS JULY 14th Clinton 46.5% Trump 31.5% 
Clinton +15 points

                      REUTERS JULY 26th 
       Trump 40.2% Clinton      38.5%  Trump +1.7 points

The African American Trump support in the Reuter's Poll on July 24th was 12% which is double Romney's in 2012

 Five out of seven ain't bad 

As always, a single poll means little and the aggregate is what counts. 
The trend is, after allowing for the polling adjustment, probably correct. 

How the Dem's convention goes will determine Clinton's "bounce" and after a further two weeks a clearer picture will emerge.