Monday, September 12, 2016
8/10/16 The Exact Date Donald Trump's Path To The Presidency Commenced
Real Clear Politics aggregate "poll of polls' on August 9th had Trump behind Clinton by 7.9 points (47.8% to 39.9%). This was Trump's lowest percentage since June 17th when he was at his nadir of 38.3%.
Clinton hit her post DNC high of +48.4%, (her highest point since April 25th) although her lead was +6.3 as Trump had commenced his ascendancy by that point on August 10th with a clear spike up to August 12th as the graph indicates.
This almost exactly mirrors the trajectory of the three tracking polls in the aggregate with UPI/C being the laggard.
The massive rise for Trump from June 16th to July 27th included and reflected his "convention (July 18-21) bounce" as does Hillary's from July 30th to August 27th. Both these rises coincide exactly of course with their subsequent sharp declines.
Now that the convention bounces are finished and Labor Day has passed the "tribal" tightening of the polls has commenced with Clinton's lead down to 3.1 and the first debate, barring any Wikileaks or other shocks, may set the tone for subsequent bounces.
However the campaign ends in November if Trump does win the turning point can clearly be identified for his campaign as August 10th in the "one off " poll aggregates at RCP and the 13th in the three tracking polls.
Trump turned Hillary's largest aggregate lead of 4.2 points on 8/13 to an 0.7 lead on the 20th a near 5 point turnaround in 12 days.
Why August 10th-13th? There appears to be no clear indicator in the media or in positive statements or gaffes from other of the candidates. It may be that Clinton's email problems and the decline in her 'trustworthiness' across numerous polls combined with Trump's "softened" approach, may have moved voters who were uncertain about him to his camp.
Here is a possible answer (from a Hillary supporter needless to say) to the "why" question' which seems reasonable;
The state polls, which in the end are what really matter as it is still the Electoral College, not the popular vote that counts, lag the national poll trends but now also show a realistic path to the presidency for Trump.