Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Debate Day Finds A Poor Poll Showing For Trump In The Tracking Polls

UPDATE 10/19. Trump recovers in USC/LATimes poll backup to +0.6. Recovery was with men /women/Hispanics and mid to upper income groups
Rasmussen same date Clinton-1 to tie



"One off " poll IBD Trump +1 *********************************************************************
Previous post Not the best of days for Trump I'm afraid with a sharp decline in two of the trackers USC/LATimes and PPD which usually move in tandem.





In PPD Trump went from a lead of 1.2 points to a Clinton lead of 1.7 a large 2.9 decline for Trump

USC/LATimes from a lead of 1.6 to a tiny lead of just 0.2

The only spin is that these two polls have a component of previous days polling and may reflect out of date movements. This is the same for UPI/C poll which has a weeks data and which showed a much smaller increase for Clinton from 4.6 to 4.8 points (but they are lagging a day behind so in their next result may pick up some of the other polls shift to Clinton.)

Rasmussen is the only bright spot as Clinton's 2 point lead has gone in that poll which is the most recent of the four and they are tied.

The "One Off" MSM polls have given up their ridiculous "Clinton +12" results and are settling in at around Clinton +6 with IBD actually giving Trump a +1 lead which is an outlier at this point.

A poor day in general in the state polls, where it counts;

North Carolina Clinton +2 N.Hampshire +8 Az +5 Utah spoiler McMullin +4

All these polls do not reflect the Wikileaks latest/the O'Keefe Dem corruption videos and the National Enquirer story plus of course the debate so things could change quickly-we shall see

No comments :