Friday, October 28, 2016

Tracking Polling 10/28; USC/LATimes Trump Highest Since 10/6 Up 2.4 Points Over Clinton at 46.2%

In a striking move upwards for Donald Trump in the latest USC/LATimes tracking Poll Trump leads Clinton 46.2% to 43.8%.

This is a rise of 2.41 points since 10/23 when Trump commenced his upwards run which has coincided with a tightening of the MSM polls from their ridiculous "Clinton +14 levels over the previous weeks. Clinton has dropped by 1.3 points over that period as well

Trump's rise has been driven by a sharp increase in support from middle income middle America which may have been influenced to a degree by the large "ObamaCare premium rises;

And while Trump is steady, a slight uptick in fact with Females, his support among males has rocketed. The Gingrich/Kelly debate may have had some influence on this

The previous polls are all over the place but across the board the MSM polls are tightening as they herd together so no one stands out as looking particularly stupid after the election.

The Times Picayune and ABC trackers went from Clinton  +12 to +3 and +4 respectively in three days.

In summary; USC/LATimes Clinton down a point to Trump leading by 2.4

In the other tracking polls the move to Trump is clear; Rasmussen Clinton down 1 point to a tie

PPD Clinton down 1.5 to minus 1.1  UPI/C down two points to plus 1.8 from plus 5.5 a week ago

Only IBD shows movement in the other direction with Clinton up a point to +4 !! but that is what aggregation is for of course. Her lead in the aggregate has shrunk to only Plus 0.4 Here's why IBD is going the opposite of the other tracking polls

IBD/TIPP poll raw response proportions came from 33.2% Dem; 33.1% Rep; 31.1% Ind (n=973). For some reason, they threw out 27 responses and "weighted" the rest to 37.1% Dem; 30.3% Rep; 32.6% Ind (n=946).

IBD is showing DT with only +10 among men while HC is +16 among women. LAT is +17.7 & +12.1 respectively. With what happened yesterday IBD is smoking crack.And IBD shows DT +12 with whites while LAT shows Trump surging at +22.4.
"Voila! Clinton leads 44-41 with a 3.3% MoE, as IBD/TIPP demands you acknowledge their polling accuracy 

In the non-tracking polls since 10/25 Clinton's lead is down to 3.7 points aggregate

Trump's USC/LATimes rise coincided with his big jump in Florida

Trump Has 2-Point Edge in Bloomberg Politics Poll of Florida