Monday, October 31, 2016

Trump Moves Into AGGREGATE Lead in Florida In New RCP Analysis

Post Comey;In the new Real Clear Politics aggregate of Florida Polling Trump has moved into the lead for the first time since September 26th

This reflects the latest polls from Remington Trump +4 and NYTImes/Sienna Trump +4 and earlier


"Trump Has 2-Point Edge in Bloomberg Politics Poll of Florida"


Tampa Bay Times Dixie Strategies (10/25-10/26):Florida Trump 46 (+4) Clinton 42 Johnson 2 Stein 1 ...

And FWIW this new "Alliance Poll" (not included in the aggregate) which for all it's possible validity reinforces the trend

This clearly reflects the monumental effort Trump has put in Florida. It also reflects the unusual early voting figures;

Early voting lead holding in Florida GOP 1510018Dem 1500124 with substantial Indie's early voting which must favor Tump Very positive sign LINK TO OFFICIAL RESULTS

Wow. Assuming 10% win among Ind's and that is incredible early on compared to past.

In the Electoral College/Battleground states a movement to Trump;

RCP aggregate poll movements to Trump in October

Florida +4 Ohio +4  Nevada +4 
Colorado +4.0 Pennsylvania +4 

Trump very much has an Electoral College path to the presidency. First the obvious qualification. For Trump to get the "one or two states he needs to win" he has to have won Florida/North Carolina/Ohio. Lose any of them, especially Florida and Republicans can turn off their televisions around  10 p.m. on November 8th. 

As well as Florida Trump is in the aggregate lead in Ohio +1.1 At this point he is behind in the aggregate in North Carolina but he is still very much competitive (within the margin of error MOE) at -3 (latest poll Trump +2)

In my opinion, Virginia -7.2 is gone but the Trump team announced a multi-million dollar TV spend and he held a rally there which they obviously wouldn't do if they didn't think there was a reasonable chance. 

Lets look at the best case Electoral College scenario, at this point, for Trump;

Trump needs 269 Electoral College votes, not 270 as a tie is as good as a win. Presuming he carries FLA/NC/OH and the "Kerry states" of 2012, plus Iowa (currently Trump +1.4) and Maine's Congressional District 2 where he leads by 1.5 he is 9 votes short.

Winning Nevada would get him to 266, still 3 votes short or winning Colorado would get him to 269 and the presidency. Alternatively Nevada plus New Hampshire would be 270.

Bearing in mind the aggregate of some of these states polls reflect some of Trump's worst weeks or are well out of date, he is within or well outside of the margin of error (MOE) but it would be foolishly optimistic to say they are certainties.

Nevada -1.5 Latest poll Trump +4
Colorado -4Trump hasn't led in any poll since 9/23 Latest poll Trump -1 (from -11 !)
New Hampshire -5.2 But he has not led in any poll of the state him.The latest poll from Emerson puts him at only-3 so the state bears watching especially as Johnson and Stein are collapsing there

Some consider Pennsylvania 5.6) but only -2 in today's Remington poll Trump's best result since September
Michigan 6.2 or Wisconsin -5.7) within reach but there are no polling indicators which would support Wisconsin but Pennsylvania is now in margin of error territory. A shock win in either (or Virginia) would elect Trump.

Again at this point it is down to Nevada/Colorado/New Hampshire with Nevada/New Hampshire seeming the best chance. If he did win Colorado it would be unique that winning 1 Electoral Vote from Maine's CD2 would give him the presidency.

What would not be unique would Gary Johnson and Stein, currently at 12.7% in the latest New Hampshire aggregates and  6.3% in Nevada, costing the Dem's the presidency, it would be a repeat of Nader's spoiler role in 2000. Clinton is up only +5 in New Mexico, down from Obama's +10 win in 2012 reflecting Johnson's influence there.