Tuesday, January 15, 2019


Senator Bernie Sanders becoming the Dem’s 2020 candidate would indeed be a disaster for the GOP-in 2024. In 2024 the Republicans would facing the seeming iron rule, since 1952, of presidential elections-that a two term administration of either party has little chance of the successor candidate being elected.

On the other hand most first term presidents, or their successors in office e.g. Kennedy/Johnson Harding/Coolidge being one administration, get re-elected

In the twelve presidential administrations from 1920 only three presidents, Hoover, Carter, GWH Bush were not re-elected and not surprisingly all were done in by poor to disastrous economies. The Roosevelt/Truman
Democratic administrations ran to five victories in a row.

With those historical precedents in mind the odds are that President Trump will be receive a second term. If the economy continues to improve and the unprecedented benefits as regards employment for Blacks (with whom Sanders did poorly) and Hispanics continues its current pace then Trump would be positioned for a landslide win.

In such circumstances the opposing party gives vent to its most radical or out of touch elements and nominates a Goldwater a McGovern a Mondale and suffers a massive electoral college rejection-Mondale’s being the worst only carrying his home state of Minnesota and D.C.

Sanders, with his army of “Bernie Bros.” mass support among the progressive wing of the Dem’s ticks every box in the crusade type candidacy. It is challenging to see the American electorate at a time of near full employment electing what would be perceived as a tax raising socialist and conveyor of who knows what new list of politically correct social restructuring.

The prospect of a Sanders candidacy is very real. He has not yet made any moves in that direction but to discount such a possibility would be foolish. Nathan Robinson at the leftist ‘The Guardian’ hails Sanders as “the most progressive choice for president.”

Notably, according to the Daily Beast’s  Michael Tomasky a high profile Sanders partisan David Sirota has attacked “Beto” O’Rourke, a younger potential rival for the progressive left’s hearts while Tomasky, a Hillary supporter has attacked Sanders. David Brook at NBC’s “Think” goes further and attacks Sanders fans as potential “poisoners”-game on.

 More importantly Sanders leads by a large margin in polls of progressives and in second place to former VP Joe Biden in various wider polls of prospective nominees. He has his mass of supporters to reignite, and the second time around as a known factor to the left, would make that a simple task as would the raising of substantial funding.

While a Sanders candidacy would be welcomed by Republicans the reality is a more traditional Democratic candidate would, historically at least, also lose to Trump which scenario bodes poorly for the GOP in 2024.

If Sanders were to run and lose the natural result would be the Democratic  party, with the radicals humbled, would turn to a centrist candidate which would make the job of the successor to Trump very difficult against the “third term” hoodoo.

Conversely, if Sanders were again denied the nomination after a vigorous campaign with mass rallies attended by hordes of youthful leftists and their Hollywood supporters once again, the pressure for a similar candidate in 2024 would be unstoppable.

President GWH Bush broke the third term jinx by having the good fortune to run against an utterly hopeless incompetent in Mike Dukakis who blew an 18 point poll lead. Whoever the GOP’s successor to Trump is she or he can only hope that Sanders is denied the 2020 nomination and a similar radical is the Dem’s choice in 2024

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