Merry Christmas And Happy New Year!

To all those kind enough to follow 

& all people of goodwill a most 

Dickensian 

Christmas and Happy New Year!
Back on board mid-January.


Cheers! 

MJ

Black And Hispanic Vote Is Not Why Romney Lost.This Is Why And How 2016 Can Be Won

With a movie coming out focusing on Mitt Romney and his 2012 presidential run (which is garnering some crocodile tear sympathy from those who attacked him from the left) it is instructive to look at why he lost as the GOP looks towards 2016. I wrote earlier that Romney was, in point of fact, beaten before he started, this article will expand on that

Post election analysis by the likes of the highly respected Sean Trende showed that Romney lost Florida because although Black turnout for President Obama dipped fractionally,  that was compensated for by  a slightly higher move from the GOP to Obama by Cuban Americans which gave the state to the Dem's by a minuscule 0.9%. 

The Black turnout in Virginia held at 2008 levels, and that, plus the migration from D.C. into northern Virginia gave Obama a more comfortable 3.9% win. The swing state of Ohio, without which no Republican has won the presidency saw, to the amazement of the Romney strategists (and famously Karl Rove who on election night had a hissy fit about it) an increase of Black turnout from stratospheric heights to, the puzzlement of the observers mentioned, unbelievable heights. The end result being a win for Obama by 3%

With these key states it would appear that the factors the analysts focused on massive Black and Hispanic turnout for the Dem's were apparently what gave President Obama his second term. But that is not the case as a simple check of the Electoral College map results below show. Even if Romney had won Florida, Virginia.and Ohio he would have gained 60 further Electoral College votes-still  4short, at the revised total of 266.

Since Indiana and North Carolina had returned to their traditional Republican column where would the 4 (or 3 if the election were tied and thrown into the House) have come from? Obama's margins in New England, the industrial states the traditionally liberal upper mid-west and most especially the far west, were such that political reality clearly shows Romney had no chance of picking off any of them. 

Neither are they needed for a Republican to win in 2016 as G.W. Bush showed in 2004. The states that  re-elected Bush in 2004 were (as well of course as Florida/Virgina/Ohio) Iowa-Colorado-New Mexico-Nevada.

These were lost by Romney by significant margins. Iowa by 5.8% Colorado 5.4% New Mexico by a massive 10.2% and Nevada 6.7%. With the right team, and especially if the mood is for change in 2016. the relatively small Democrat margins in the Eastern States can be overcome. 

It might be expected that Black turnout might drop just the small amounted needed to assist the GOP's campaign and the new, high profile Hispanic American team that the GOP has could further assist-especially if one were on the ticket. Then only one of the "Bush states" would be required.

It can reasonably be stated that Iowa did not go for Obama because of the Black or Hispanic vote there. Another factor must have come into play as the state was not in Romney's column for any length of time throughout the polling period. 

Perhaps Romney's Mormonism was a major factor in this state with a significant Evangelical population and, if the 2016 candidate is a conservative mainstream Christian that, plus the normal swing of the electoral pendulum night be enough. This quote confirms that Black/Hispanic vote played little part in the substantial Obama win in Iowa;

"In Iowa, figures weren't available for turnout among racial and ethnic groups because of their relatively small share of the state’s population.. - See more at: http://thegazette.com/2013/05/08/report-iowa-voter-turnout-amongst-highest-in-2012-election/#sthash.YuLR0a1s.dpuf

Colorado is also fertile ground. This year three state legislators were either recalled or resigned because of their perceived gun control support and again, the right candidate could bring this state back to the GOP fold with a strong emphasis on the 2nd amendment rights in this hunting loving state.

The doomsayers and "weight of demographics" propagandists on the left may be fighting the last two elections in 2016. The hysterics over the Black vote can be seen to be unwarranted if the right candidate is nominated who can appeal to Hispanics, hunters in Colorado and Evangelicals in Iowa. In point of fact if any three of south-West states can be won the GOP can win without Virginia. Of course any increase in Black support for the GOP is to be welcomed, but it is not crucial, and if it comes over time through economic growth in the Black community that may be the best approach for Republican strategists to take.

The choice of the team in 2016 is hugely important. If the GOP establishment forces another in the line of Dole/McCain/Romney on the rank and file, and the conservatives stay home again, then an outstanding opportunity will have been thrown away-lets hope common sense rules and the idiocy of not having Governor Palin address the 2012 convention is not repeated.

In Last 60 Years of Campaigns Only 4 VP Candidates Apart From Palin Had Promotional Buttons

.     

These posts are at the 

following links: 

1.GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN FOR VICE-PRESIDENT 2008 CAMPAIGN BUTTON IMAGERY
http://tiny.cc/ki1m7w 

2.McCain-Palin 2008 Campaign Buttons With Both Images (Jugate)
http://tiny.cc/xk1m7w 

3. McCain-Palin 2008 Campaign Buttons With No Candidate Images http://tiny.cc/wo1m7w 

4.McCain-Palin 2008 Campaign Buttons; State,"CoatTail" And Other Person/Group References http://tiny.cc/tq1m7w 

5,Anti-Palin Buttons (In preparation)
*********************************************************************
Apart from the usual methods of researching past presidential campaigns, old newspapers and videos of television adverts and speeches the buttons and badges, flags and banners and all the other campaign associated ephemera help to give a broader overview. There are an army of campaign button collectors with their own conventions and magazines and serious avenues for campaign items exists at various museums and universities.

This is an outstanding site for political buttons auctions.Type in the name of any candidate e.g. Lincoln and recent auction images etc. will come up
http://www.anderson-auction.com/default.aspx

Political Collectors.com

http://politicalcollectors.com/archive/political-collectors-archive/archive_c175/

American Political Items Collectors
http://apic.us/

In fact campaign items can bring some of the passions,excitement and color that the usual media can't quite express. Buttons show what images of the candidates their teams thought had best impression making and, quite interestingly, what slogans resonated best with supporters and the wider public. In fact a study of a campaigns buttons can often show the progress of slogans for example, in the McCain buttons "Country First" clearly starts off as the main theme and then "Experience Counts" becomes a major theme as the campaign progressed.

The McCain-Palin campaign of 2008 had some unique aspects. Having the first female GOP candidate for a start. Palin is unique in campaign ephemera for having a mass of buttons dedicated solely or mostly to her. One could search in vain for a mass of Ryan, Ferraro or Miller (surprisingly three) or Sparkman (these are the only ones I could find) for Vice-president buttons but, as the posts at the links show there is a mass of Palin for Vice-president buttons. Apart from her, From Ryan 2012 to Sparkman in 1952,  in 60 years these were the only VP specific images on auction

                     

.   

There is, which is absolutely unique, a mass of anti-Palin buttons which shows the genuine concern about her from the Democrat campaign and also the very real passions her campaign brought up.

For those who would wish to see other posts about campaign items there is the post on the quite beautiful art nouveau Alton B. Parker campaign LINK  http://tiny.cc/wz1m7w, the almost forgotten John W. Davis campaign 
LINK http://tiny.cc/l11m7w
 and the hapless but fascinating 
LINK  http://tiny.cc/uk2m7w McGovern campaign with some of its "hippy" imagery which foreshadowed the Obama 2008 campaign.

If there are button images missing from these posts (which will be updated from time to time as items become available) I would be most appreciative if links to them could be provided

Rabelaisian, Dionysian Administration Goes Down Clinton Path Enabled By Feminists/NOW/Wonkette As Liberal Dream Expires

"Hope and Change has clearly morphed in to " "Grope and Change" as the liberal dream of 2008 has exploded in Obamacare, a five year recession, massive debt and now a Rabelaisian, Dionysian administration.

"President Obama has some ’splaining to do. To the woman he married. To his daughters. To the people of South Africa. And to the scandalized folks here at home.
He owes the world an apology."

"Flirty Obama owes us an apology"
http://nypost.com/2013/12/12/obamas-flirt-with-danish-prime-minister-is-a-disgrace/


"Vice President Joe Biden gropes White House reporter"

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2013/12/16/vice-president-joe-biden-gropes-white-house-reporter/#ixzz2nfrfCfNb



It would appear that once safely back in office the horndog example of the Clinton second term is to be given free reign as the shocking "selfie' picture at Nelson Mandela's funeral and now Vice-president Biden's "grope" photo scandal.

"Joe Biden, you are 71 years old today, God Love You. Here are some of the reasons you’re a Big Fucking Deal."

Read more at http://wonkette.com/534680/old-handsome-joe-biden-it-is-your-birthday#0PmpjBp6Pv5Fm5Iw.99

 This earlier picture above. from the rampantly macho/chauvinist enabling site "Wonkette" whose editor seems clearly obsessed with Biden as can be seen by this image, was a pointer to how things would go in the second term and all that it presaged has, tragically, come to pass.  The unsophisticated, easily led dreams of liberal youth  "Millennials Desert Obama" http://www.wrtl.org/blog/index.php/2013/12/04/millenials-desert-obama-and-obamacare/ are dashed and they are deserting the Obama administration droves, not that the backers and enablers in the media care as they have their social agenda in place which is all they really cared about to begin with.

What is sad is that the rest of society has to pay for the dupliclity of the left whilst watching the ribald antics of the now 'free to play' macho-men in government. On the other hand what little credibility the feminists spokespeople, NOW, the media and especially Wonkette had has been well exploded, but that is too high a price to have paid to see the rent in the moral fabric of America being repaired commencing in 2014 and completed in 2016.

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Post Bashir:New York Times Gail Collin's Palin Rant Is Utterly Passé-It Just Doesn't Work Anymore

I wrote (reproduced below) that Martin Bashir has effectively destroyed all the "progressive lefts" anti-conservative, and in particular anti-Palin themes. Basically the leftist MSM propganda mill has ground to a halt, and the emperor stands naked, and in Bashir's case, ashamed.

Certainly the themes will be trotted out from time to time, the "war on women" the raaacism, the none sense that feminist groups are even handed, and the notion that Fox is just a propaganda outlet whilst MSNBC "leans forward." I explored the balloon having gone out these notions, and was interested to see an example of the detumescence in place almost immediately.

The New York Times writer Gail Collins has been one of the stable of oh so superior anti-Palin writers-the action of her nostrils at the mere mention of Palin's name can be well imagined. True to form Collins delivered a snobby "Palin's War on Christmas is passé" column. Michelle McCormick, writing at C4P "Gail The Grinch Collins"
AT THIS LINK presented an excellent critique of Collin's oeuvre. Here is a paragraph which gives the flavor of an excellent review;

The particularly interesting aspect of  the Collins piece is how utterly flat and, yes passé, it is post Bashir. It's as if the stuffing has gone out of the Palin hate machine post . Yes the snobbery is there  and the 'sniffing' but it just doesn't resonate. It doesn't resonate by riling up conservatives as McCormick's take down shows nor could it possibly contribute some advantage to the left. Surely everyone, even on the 'progressive' fringes is sick and tired of the endless take down of 'fly over country  folk. It seems incredible that Collins could see any advantage to her reputation from yet another Palin hit piece.

As I suggested, Bashir has committed the unpardonable sin of destroying not only his reputation, but whatever reputation for journalism the left propaganda machine had. We are in a new world post Bashir and Collins and her ilk had better become adjusted to it or  they will be consigned to the propaganda dustbin of history.

************************************************************************************************************

Martin Bashir departs MSNBC after falling on his sword the victim, not of some right-wing conspiracy or devious Palin hatched plot but, purely and simply, his own rashness. 

There is no need to go over what was said, the two apologies all of which have been hashed and rehashed or to convey any sort of gloating. As for the latter. Bashir’s exit transcends any sense of schadenfreude or gloating as the hit on the left has been so massive it transcend gloating.  

Rather, the end result of Bashir’s and MSNBC’s monumental disaster, and that is exactly that it is, has been a paradigm shift in the political ethos.

With one paragraph Bashir has, and it can fairly be said it wasn’t single handed as of course his Palin attack program was checked with MSNBC before being aired, destroyed the leftist memes that have been steadily built up the left leftist media and blogosphere for a decade.

The “right wing war on women.” gone in a flash as the leftist media’s unrelenting and at times horrific campaign against Sarah Palin, Ann Coulter and Michele Bachmann et al has been undeniably exposed  for the crude, at times utterly filthy misogynist campaign that it has been with no comparison on the right.

Also destroyed has been the myth of "even handed feminist groups." The silence from NOW, leading feminist personalities, and, as perhaps an act of pure job saving cowardice, the female personalities at MSNBC has been notable-they are in fact utterly exploded for their utter bias.

“Fox news is full of hate and right wing propaganda”  Whilst it is undeniable Fox makes its appeal 
to conservatives, there is nothing like the bias and bile that Bashir  and those who proceeded him out the door has shown to be the driving force at MSNBC. Bashir has made the Fox claim of “Fair and Balanced” reporting be seen to have validity-at least as compared to MSNBC’s extremism.

“Sarah Palin is irrelevant.”  One of the most nonsensical of leftist memes which anyone with eyes to see (especially when she is on Fox) could determine was ludicrous. 

For someone supposedly ‘irrelevant (but somehow managing to get Ted Cruz and Deb Fischer et al in the Senate and other offices)  the left has obsessively chronicled her every move. From New York Magazine to the Los Angeles Times and of course the Washington Post in-between endless columns have been written about her supposed doleful influence the body politic.

MSNBC, Jon Stewart and other television outlets regularly bash her with Bashir of course being the ultimate example of the left’s obsession. 

If anything, the leftist blogosphere from Huffington Post, Wonkette to Gawker to Daily Kos exceed MSNBC in writing about Palin whilst their comment section is full of “why do we give this irrelevant person “Sarah who” any publicity? 

There are mad sites full of Palin conspiracy theorists who still persist with “Trig is not Sarah Palin’s son" and other such garbage which have hate for her as their sole reason for their sorry existence. 

Bashir has laid the ‘irrelevant”  the "war On Women" and the "Fox extremism” memes to rest, leaving the left naked, as ashamed as it is possible for them to be, and seething with resentment which simply further exposes them as the party of hate. For that Bashir can never be forgiven.

Martin Bashir’s Unforgivable Sin-Destroying The Left’s Propaganda Themes

Martin Bashir departs MSNBC after falling on his sword the victim, not of some right-wing conspiracy or devious Palin hatched plot but, purely and simply, his own rashness. 

There is no need to go over what was said, the two apologies all of which have been hashed and rehashed or to convey any sort of gloating. As for the latter. Bashir’s exit transcends any sense of schadenfreude or gloating as the hit on the left has been so massive it transcend gloating.  

Rather, the end result of Bashir’s and MSNBC’s monumental disaster, and that is exactly that it is, has been a paradigm shift in the political ethos.

With one paragraph Bashir has, and it can fairly be said it wasn’t single handed as of course his Palin attack program was checked with MSNBC before being aired, destroyed the leftist memes that have been steadily built up the left leftist media and blogosphere for a decade.

The “right wing war on women.” gone in a flash as the leftist media’s unrelenting and at times horrific campaign against Sarah Palin, Ann Coulter and Michele Bachmann et al has been undeniably exposed  for the crude, at times utterly filthy misogynist campaign that it has been with no comparison on the right.

Also destroyed has been the myth of "even handed feminist groups." The silence from NOW, leading feminist personalities, and, as perhaps an act of pure job saving cowardice, the female personalities at MSNBC has been notable-they are in fact utterly exploded for their utter bias.

“Fox news is full of hate and right wing propaganda”  Whilst it is undeniable Fox makes its appeal 
to conservatives, there is nothing like the bias and bile that Bashir  and those who proceeded him out the door has shown to be the driving force at MSNBC. Bashir has made the Fox claim of “Fair and Balanced” reporting be seen to have validity-at least as compared to MSNBC’s extremism.

“Sarah Palin is irrelevant.”  One of the most nonsensical of leftist memes which anyone with eyes to see (especially when she is on Fox) could determine was ludicrous. 

For someone supposedly ‘irrelevant (but somehow managing to get Ted Cruz and Deb Fischer et al in the Senate and other offices)  the left has obsessively chronicled her every move. From New York Magazine to the Los Angeles Times and of course the Washington Post in-between endless columns have been written about her supposed doleful influence the body politic.

MSNBC, Jon Stewart and other television outlets regularly bash her with Bashir of course being the ultimate example of the left’s obsession. 

If anything, the leftist blogosphere from Huffington Post, Wonkette to Gawker to Daily Kos exceed MSNBC in writing about Palin whilst their comment section is full of “why do we give this irrelevant person “Sarah who” any publicity? 

There are mad sites full of Palin conspiracy theorists who still persist with “Trig is not Sarah Palin’s son" and other such garbage which have hate for her as their sole reason for their sorry existence. 

Bashir has laid the ‘irrelevant”  the "war On Women" and the "Fox extremism” memes to rest, leaving the left naked, as ashamed as it is possible for them to be, and seething with resentment which simply further exposes them as the party of hate. For that Bashir can never be forgiven.

Libertarian Party Poised To Hand 2016 Presidential Election To Democrats?

The Wall Street Journal had an article up-which reached this conclusion:

"The de Blasio-Warren agenda won't travel. Colorado is the real political harbinger."

Here is the full segment from LINK

******************************************************************************

"Cowan and Kessler: Economic Populism Is a Dead End for Democrats

On the same day that Bill de Blasio won in New York City, a referendum to raise taxes on high-income Coloradans to fund public education and universal pre-K failed in a landslide. This is the type of state that Democrats captured in 2008 to realign the national electoral map, and they did so through offering a vision of pragmatic progressive government, not fantasy-based blue-state populism. Before Democrats follow Sen. Warren and Mayor-elect de Blasio over the populist cliff, they should consider Colorado as the true 2013 Election Day harbinger of American liberalism."

The authors premise is, that recent and current political events, which included the recall defeat of two Democrat state representatives, and the resignation of a third after the gun lobby took them on in Colorado, signify the return of that state to its pre-Obama presidential voting pattern when it was for the most part reliably in the GOP's column.

Unfortunately for  the GOP that premise, and as the 2016 Electoral College map below shows, the return of Colorado is, by itself, not enough to ensure the success of the 2016 candidate;


The map above builds on Romney's state wins by adding Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Colorado which leaves the GOP two Electoral College votes short of the 270 required for victory. Of course it can by no means be taken for granted that the three states preceding Colorado are in the bag. Florida was lost by less than 1% Ohio was close but Iowa (and Colorado) were lost by significant margins.

However there would be confidence that the normal pendulum swing, and perhaps the Obama factor being missing might deliver all four into the GOP's column-where to go next then for the remaining votes?

Nevada is an obvious choice but that state, and New Mexico have a substantial Hispanic population, and
given the large margins they went to Obama by they would appear stony ground to plough. Clearly, given the above scenario, the election will be won and lost in Virginia. As this map shows if the GOP wins in Virginia it can do without either Iowa or Colorado


So what are the Republicans chances in Virginia in 2016? A glance at recent Electoral history shows they would appear to be not all that bright. The shift in population of liberals into Northern Virginia combined with a massive turnout of Black voters gave President Obama two comfortable wins.

2008;Obama 52.63  McCain  46.33  Barr (Libertarian) 0.31
2012:Obama 51.16 Romney 47.28  Johnson (Lib)      0.81
Thus Obama won by successively 6.8 and 3.88 points with the 2012 result giving cause for optimism.

However, the recent election for Governor of Virginia brought some possibly disastrous news for the GOP-apart from their candidate Cucinnelli losing by 2.52%. This is the final Virginia result:

McCauliffe D 47.75%  Cucinnelli R 45.23% Sardis L 6.52%

Clearly there were local factors at play with Cucinnelli considered by some not have run the best of campaigns. Further the election came just after the government shutdown which the Dem's, of course, attacked the Tea Party Republicans for causing disruption to life and especially the paychecks of the multitude of government workers in Northern Virginia.

Thus it is possible that disaffected Republicans voted for the Libertarian Sardis-polls showed that he took "a plague on both your houses" votes from both McCauliffe and Cucinnelli, but slightly more from the Republican.

It is a truism that most often third party candidates poll much higher in pre-election polls than they do on the actual election day, but in this case the Sardis polls held up. There is of course no way of knowing what the political landscape will look like in November 2016, or who the candidates will be. It may be that President Obama leaves the Dem's in the same sorry shape that G.W. Bush left the Republicans in 2008, in which case the GOP probably wouldn't need to worry if Hillary was the opposing candidate or how the Libertarian would fare.

If however President Obama leaves office with the economy in relatively good shape, and Hillary is the candidate, and his 96% Black voter support transfers to her, then the Libertarian vote could be decisive.

Clearly if the 2016 Libertarian candidate held even  half of the 2013 Governorship vote it received and the half it lost was split evenly between the Dem and Republican the GOP candidate would lose based on the 2012 result.

It may be that as well as appealing to its own base with the right conservative candidate the Republicans may need to look at what they can offer the Libertarian voter. It may be a look at cannabis reform, or civil liberties issues, but that appeal, rather than an appeal to the Black community which seems concreted into the Dem's, may be the best path to victory for without Virginia there appears no chance.
*****************************************************************
Postscript: In a case of great minds think alike I found, as I was putting the finishing research touches on this article that the concept has also be mined today by
Dean Garrison at "Freedom Outpost" LINK. Whilst there are similarities that is of course by the nature of the subject matter. 

However I believe there are enough differences in approach, particularly with the illustrations in this post for both articles to stand alone and be complementary and, hopefully in the case of mine, add some further value to the reader in there being two approaches rather than one. 



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Official Virginia Result Cements PPP (Daily Kos/D) Polling's Latest Poll Flop

PPP Polling the Democrat orientated pollster for ultra-leftist "Daily Kos" has, once again, fallen flat continuing a run which was particularly evident in their Ted Cruz polling disaster.

PPP had Democrat Terry McAulliffe way out in front in the Virginia campaign for governor against Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Libertarian Robert Sarvis. This was their final  prediction on November 3rd:

"McAuliffe leads final poll by 7

PPP's final Virginia poll finds Democrats leading in all three statewide races. In the Governor's race Terry McAuliffe has the advantage with 50% to 43% for Ken Cuccinelli and 4% for Libertarian Robert Sarvis. +/- 3.3% margin of error"

And this is what the election day result was as reported by the New York Times;

Thus PPP's prediction of a 7 point blow out turned out to be a nail-biting 2.5 point squeaker outside the margin or error, so far out that there would seemingly be no justification for such a bad prediction.

But in answer to the critics who rightly rounded on their blog, PPP implied the result was not final and, who knows, they may be proved right or their prediction might get to the margin of error when the official results have been tabulated. In fact this is what they said:




Well the Commonwealth of Virginia's official election website LINK has now published the certified final results which are thus:



Sadly for PPP's hopes the change for McCauliffe's total was a reduction of 0.25 points and his winning margin was 2.52 points-not anywhere near PPP's prediction of 7 or the MOE. 

PPP is exposed, once again as the Democrat momentum pusher and poor performer. Why anyone would take any notice of their prognostications when  tea leaves are readily available and perhaps just as accurate is a mystery.









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