The Republican nomination campaign is effectively over (this from the site that was the only one to predict Gingrich's rise when all had written him off). The latest round of polls clearly show Gingrich is more than the front runner, he is the candidate.
From PPP Polling (D)
Gingrich still rising
Last night we went into the field in Florida and Montana- we'll have the results of those polls out tomorrow after another night of calls but the early indications are that Newt Gingrich will have a double digit lead in both states- he has not peaked yet and is still on an upward curve.
If Herman Cain really ends up dropping out of the race Gingrich's surge should continue in the next few weeks, unless/until something starts happening to erode his popularity. Why? Because Cain's supporters absolutely love Gingrich. And they absolutely hate Mitt Romney.
The most striking poll result is Gingrich being only ten points behind Romney is his redoubt of New Hampshire.The newspaper endorsement Newt received will, as it trickles through the hamlets, close the gap further and, as his lead is insurmountable everywhere else he will get even closer, if not actually taking the lead.
ATLANTA — Newt Gingrich has taken a commanding lead in the South Carolina Republican primary, with more than twice the support of Mitt Romney or Herman Cain, according to a poll conducted Monday evening for The Augusta Chronicle.
Gingrich, a former congressman from Georgia, has 38 percent, followed by 15 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts. Cain, a Georgia native, had 13 percent.
Newt will win Iowa and the result from South Carolina shows the deal is done. If there was any doubt Newt's Florida/Montana polling shows no one else has a chance at the nomination now.
It is obvious to all that the rank and file do not want Romney to be the nominee. His campaign of waiting for the front runners to fall over one by one has hit the brick wall that is Gingrich's ascendancy as only Newt, of all the other candidates, had the experience, unlike Perry, which withstood the debates/media scrutiny.
But don't just take my word for it-follow the money. here's what Intrade,where people put up real money on the outcome, reports today;
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has fallen below 50 percent on InTrade for the first time since the beginning of October, as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has seen his fortunes on the prediction market rise.
A trade at 7:28 this morning valued Romney as having just a 49.3 percent chance to win the GOP nomination. He peaked at over a 70 percent chance at the beginning of November, amid Herman Cain's collapse in the polls.
Many believe Romney to be the inevitable choice for Republicans, who have been unable to front a more conservative candidate with staying power.
But Gingrich, the latest to rise to the front of the pack, appears to be showing resilience amid scrutiny over his positions on illegal immigration.
If the Romney team thinks that Gingrich will collapse like Cain due to "personal baggage" they will be disappointed. Gingrich's marital history is an open book so there is no "scnadal' to emerge. Further his conversion to Catholicism and the ensuing absolution, basically gives him a clear slate. That the conservative element in the GOP sees this (whilst the MSM is blind to the obvious) makes it clear that it is not an issue for them.
The rest of the candidates, especially the bottom tier-the Santorum's and Bachmann's should now end their hopeless quests, Cain should retire to keep his dignity and gain, if he wishes, an administration post.
If Romney chooses to battle on he should be aware that if Palin endorses Gingrich, as seems probable, at that point it is well and truly over. He would be betters served to pull out whilst in a favorable position to get an administration position or be in a position to run in 2016 if Gingrich did not beat Obama.
The Republican nomination campaign effectively ended today. Now is the time to give Newt an unimpeded run to the nomination so he can fully concentrate on the Obama administration with the support of the entire GOP team.
To ensure his victory in 2012 he should choose, if she wishes it Palin as his VP-if not then McDonnell of Virginia (the untried/unvetted Rubio is not needed as Florida is in the bag) whilst offering Palin the post of Secretary of the Interior.
This post is in the nature of an open letter to the genius that is Robert Stacy McCain of the influential "The Other McCain" site. All the fine qualities that you saw in Cain were a more than valid reason to so strongly support him. However, and fairly or unfairly the system, and it appears the rank and file ,whilst recognizing as you do his humanity, do not appear to see him as a viable candidate. You have so many strengths to offer in support of a winner for the GOP and I commend the reality, as I see it, that Gingrich is now the only viable alternative to Romney/Obama.
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