(AT THIS LINK). The core analysis was that Santorum's social positions, popularity and non-flip flopping, might lead to the nomination.
The negative result from that scenario would be a landslide defeat for the GOP, barring an intervening economic cataclysm or some such major event, because the very social positions that won him the nomination would be anathema to non-evangelistic, non-strongly Catholic,centrist/Independent women.
Should such an electoral disaster happen it would destroy the chances of conservatives, particularly of the Reagan/Palin uniting variety, possibly ever getting the nomination for the foreseeable future. A future that would have endless Romney's/Dole's/McCain's stretching well into it.
On the other hand, should Santorum receive the nomination, it may be the last time that the possibility of traditional conservative social mores could be at the forefront of American life. Certainly the nation is growing more conservative, but it is not the conservatism that Santorum espouses, nor that the Catholic Church holds as core doctrines.
It is an economic conservatism and perhaps a states rights conservatism rather than an overwhelming emphasis on traditional marriage, a non openly homosexual armed forces, anti-abortion under any circumstances, and all the other main tenets of evangelistic conservatism/Catholicism.
Whilst I don't hold to all these positions I could most certainly vote for an administration/president that did. For the first time since, perhaps, 1960 there would be, led from the top, a culture of life, respect for local community, and exemplary traditional values from the president and his family.
That these values would be tempered by local statutes would be a given but the important thing would be the culture would change.
And if this did happen, this possibly last chance, who knows, perhaps the country might find they liked it, and fifty years, with the exemption of the Reagan years, of statism, interventionist government, Alinsykite radicalism, corruption and greed in business, might be overturned with a return to normalcy.
We might see wholesome family values being portrayed from Hollywood and television, and the liberal hate media marginalized. The economy might find a new impetus to growth from a low tax, hands off environment and a renewed work ethic. America's allies would be rewarded, and its enemies cowed, by this return to traditionalism.
Would a Santorum candidacy be worth the risk for such massive potential gains? For me, at this point with Gingrich still in the race, I have not come to accepting that it is.
I think the odds of a Santorum defeat are so strong that the possibility of gain is too overwhelmed by the odds of substantial loss. And the end result being endless Romney's for which only a third party is the cure-but that is another matter.
In the meantime I will vote for Newt in my primary, and if he drops out, and Santorum is the nominee, I will vote for him certainly. However, it would be in the fond, but sadly from this moment in time, perhaps forlorn, hope that he might prevail. That result would be, barring a Palin candidacy of course, the best possible result.
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