Trump Moves Into AGGREGATE Lead in Florida In New RCP Analysis

Post Comey;In the new Real Clear Politics aggregate of Florida Polling Trump has moved into the lead for the first time since September 26th

This reflects the latest polls from Remington Trump +4 and NYTImes/Sienna Trump +4 and earlier

Bloomberg;

"Trump Has 2-Point Edge in Bloomberg Politics Poll of Florida"

And;

Tampa Bay Times Dixie Strategies (10/25-10/26):Florida Trump 46 (+4) Clinton 42 Johnson 2 Stein 1 http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/ ...

And FWIW this new "Alliance Poll" (not included in the aggregate) which for all it's possible validity reinforces the trend

This clearly reflects the monumental effort Trump has put in Florida. It also reflects the unusual early voting figures;

Early voting lead holding in Florida GOP 1510018Dem 1500124 with substantial Indie's early voting which must favor Tump Very positive sign LINK TO OFFICIAL RESULTS

Fighting Major ‏

3 hours ago

@MJosephSheppard Wow. Assuming 10% win among Ind's and that is incredible early on compared to past.

In the Electoral College/Battleground states a movement to Trump;

RCP aggregate poll movements to Trump in October

Florida +4 Ohio +4  Nevada +4 
Colorado +4.0 Pennsylvania +4 

Trump very much has an Electoral College path to the presidency. First the obvious qualification. For Trump to get the "one or two states he needs to win" he has to have won Florida/North Carolina/Ohio. Lose any of them, especially Florida and Republicans can turn off their televisions around  10 p.m. on November 8th. 

As well as Florida Trump is in the aggregate lead in Ohio +1.1 At this point he is behind in the aggregate in North Carolina but he is still very much competitive (within the margin of error MOE) at -3 (latest poll Trump +2)


In my opinion, Virginia -7.2 is gone but the Trump team announced a multi-million dollar TV spend and he held a rally there which they obviously wouldn't do if they didn't think there was a reasonable chance. 

Lets look at the best case Electoral College scenario, at this point, for Trump;

Trump needs 269 Electoral College votes, not 270 as a tie is as good as a win. Presuming he carries FLA/NC/OH and the "Kerry states" of 2012, plus Iowa (currently Trump +1.4) and Maine's Congressional District 2 where he leads by 1.5 he is 9 votes short.

Winning Nevada would get him to 266, still 3 votes short or winning Colorado would get him to 269 and the presidency. Alternatively Nevada plus New Hampshire would be 270.

Bearing in mind the aggregate of some of these states polls reflect some of Trump's worst weeks or are well out of date, he is within or well outside of the margin of error (MOE) but it would be foolishly optimistic to say they are certainties.

Nevada -1.5 Latest poll Trump +4
Colorado -4Trump hasn't led in any poll since 9/23 Latest poll Trump -1 (from -11 !)
New Hampshire -5.2 But he has not led in any poll of the state him.The latest poll from Emerson puts him at only-3 so the state bears watching especially as Johnson and Stein are collapsing there

Some consider Pennsylvania 5.6) but only -2 in today's Remington poll Trump's best result since September
Michigan 6.2 or Wisconsin -5.7) within reach but there are no polling indicators which would support Wisconsin but Pennsylvania is now in margin of error territory. A shock win in either (or Virginia) would elect Trump.

Again at this point it is down to Nevada/Colorado/New Hampshire with Nevada/New Hampshire seeming the best chance. If he did win Colorado it would be unique that winning 1 Electoral Vote from Maine's CD2 would give him the presidency.

What would not be unique would Gary Johnson and Stein, currently at 12.7% in the latest New Hampshire aggregates and  6.3% in Nevada, costing the Dem's the presidency, it would be a repeat of Nader's spoiler role in 2000. Clinton is up only +5 in New Mexico, down from Obama's +10 win in 2012 reflecting Johnson's influence there.

Five "Post-Comey" Polls Out And Are Sensational For Trump

Tracking Poll Summary;Trump/Clinton Post Comey; 

                                    USC/LATimes Clinton-4.0  (Down 1.5)
                                    IBD                   Clinton+1.0 (Down 3)
                                     ABC                 Clinton+1.0 (Down 3)
                                     PPD                 Clinton -2.0 (Down 1)
                                 UPI/C                         TIED  (Down 1.5)
The USC/LATimes tracking poll The ABC/Washington Post and IBD trackers are the first poll post-Comey shock announcement that the FBI is having another look at the Clinton email scandal after a reported large number of Hillary related ones were found on Anthony Weiner's computer. 

The USC/LATimes poll ending 10/30 has Trump 45.6 % and Clinton  43.2 % Trump +3.4 This is his highest  since polling October 3rd

What makes this poll so striking is USC's methodology. It is a seven day "average of all the prior week's responses"
thus this poll only includes 2 day's post-Comey polling. Thus for there to be such a large increase based on 2/7 of respondents is significant. 

What the next few days will bring as more post-Comey respondents are included will be interesting to say the least. The ABC/Washington Post  tracker, saw Hillary down to +1 from +2 the previous day, only polled to 1 day after post Comey so indications are yet to come fully for them.

But;
"About a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI Director James Comey’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails related to its probe of Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state. Given other considerations, 63 percent say it makes no difference."

The new IBD tracking poll post Comey
saw Clinton drop 2 points from 10/28 to 10/29
from +4 to +2.  IBD is a 5 day inclusive tracker so it only includes 1 day post Comey;

"Just Like That, Clinton Lead Shrinks By 2 As Email Scandal Blows Up – IBD/TIPP Poll"

In the Real Clear Politics polls the five most recent polls listed from 10/26 to 10/29 Clinton's aggregate lead is down to +1.8 points. In the tracking polls aggregate Trump and Clinton are tied as they are in Florida.
Rasmussen has gone the other way with Clinton gaining
three points ! to lead 45% to 42% but this is just noise and Rasmussen will move to Trump shortly.

 

Polling to 10/30 Clinton Down To +1 In Aggregate Four Latest Polls

In the Real Clear Politics polls the four most recent polls listed from 10/26 to 10 29 Clinton's aggregate lead is down to +1

The ABC/Washington Post miracle poll continues apace from Clinton +12, which the media slobbered, over to Clinton +1 in five days.

None of these polls are fully "post Comey" except IBD which has one day of its five composite analysis. IBD has seen Clinton drop 1 point from yesterday's polling so there may be a first indication of some reaction which will be more fully seen over the next few polling days.

In the Tracking polls the best available aggregate is a Trump Clinton an aggregate tie (Clinton + 0.7 on 10/26) because as usual UPI/C lags behind the other tracking polls in reporting and Rasmussen doesn't report on weekends.

What was available was effectively status quo. USC an 0.5 shift to Clinton and PPD an 0.1 shift to Trump. A clearer picture should emerge Monday as "post Comey" data is included but even then it will be early as for example USC/LATimes includes a whole previous weeks data so by Monday it will only include 2 days post Comey.

In sum it is clear that the polling momentum in both the one off MSM polls and the trackng polls is to Trump nationwide.

In Florida the RCP aggregate has moved the state from a
Clinton lead since September 27th to an exact tie on October 30th

Tracking Polling 10/28; USC/LATimes Trump Highest Since 10/6 Up 2.4 Points Over Clinton at 46.2%

In a striking move upwards for Donald Trump in the latest USC/LATimes tracking Poll Trump leads Clinton 46.2% to 43.8%.

This is a rise of 2.41 points since 10/23 when Trump commenced his upwards run which has coincided with a tightening of the MSM polls from their ridiculous "Clinton +14 levels over the previous weeks. Clinton has dropped by 1.3 points over that period as well

Trump's rise has been driven by a sharp increase in support from middle income middle America which may have been influenced to a degree by the large "ObamaCare premium rises;

And while Trump is steady, a slight uptick in fact with Females, his support among males has rocketed. The Gingrich/Kelly debate may have had some influence on this

The previous polls are all over the place but across the board the MSM polls are tightening as they herd together so no one stands out as looking particularly stupid after the election.

The Times Picayune and ABC trackers went from Clinton  +12 to +3 and +4 respectively in three days.

In summary; USC/LATimes Clinton down a point to Trump leading by 2.4

In the other tracking polls the move to Trump is clear; Rasmussen Clinton down 1 point to a tie

PPD Clinton down 1.5 to minus 1.1  UPI/C down two points to plus 1.8 from plus 5.5 a week ago

Only IBD shows movement in the other direction with Clinton up a point to +4 !! but that is what aggregation is for of course. Her lead in the aggregate has shrunk to only Plus 0.4 Here's why IBD is going the opposite of the other tracking polls

IBD/TIPP poll raw response proportions came from 33.2% Dem; 33.1% Rep; 31.1% Ind (n=973). For some reason, they threw out 27 responses and "weighted" the rest to 37.1% Dem; 30.3% Rep; 32.6% Ind (n=946).

IBD is showing DT with only +10 among men while HC is +16 among women. LAT is +17.7 & +12.1 respectively. With what happened yesterday IBD is smoking crack.And IBD shows DT +12 with whites while LAT shows Trump surging at +22.4.

"Voila! Clinton leads 44-41 with a 3.3% MoE, as IBD/TIPP demands you acknowledge their polling accuracy 

In the non-tracking polls since 10/25 Clinton's lead is down to 3.7 points aggregate


Trump's USC/LATimes rise coincided with his big jump in Florida

Trump Has 2-Point Edge in Bloomberg Politics Poll of Florida

Polling Update 10/27;Clinton Solidifying 5 Tracking Polls Lead at +1 MSM Polls +6

In the tracking polls a consolidation of Clinton's minor lead with a slight shift to her over the last two days;

The aggregate total on the right hand column shows Clinton at +0.7 aggregate across the five tracking polls up from + 0.1 a week ago. It seems, at this point nothing can shift Clinton's lead as even with Gary Johnson collapsing his support is tending slightly to Clinton.

This mirrors the MSM "one off" polls which, having  for the most part gotten rid of the silly "Clinton +14" polls of last week have a slight trend to her with the RCP aggregate at +6.2 (+5.8 including the tracking polls)

In the Electoral College/Battleground states a movement to Trump but not enough to give him the 269 votes he needs at this point.

RCP aggregate poll movements to Trump from 10/14 to 10/24

Florida +2 Ohio +0.5 Nevada +1.2 Colorado +1.0
Pennsylvania +1.2 (-6.2 to -5.5)


First the obvious qualification. For Trump to get the "one or two states to win he has to have won Florida/North Carolina/Ohio. Lose any of them, especially Florida and Republicans can turn off their televisions around 
10 p.m. on November 8th. 

At this point he is behind in the aggregate in two of the three but he is still very much competitive (within the margin of error MOE) in all Florida -3.6 (10/26 -1.6)
North Carolina -2.5 (10/26 -2)
Now back in the aggregate lead in Ohio +0.7 (10/26 +1.1)

In my opinion, Virginia -7.2 is gone but the Trump team announced a multi-million dollar TV spend and he held a rally there which they obviously wouldn't do if they didn't think there was a reasonable chance. 
Lets look at the best case Electoral College scenario, at this point, for Trump;

Trump needs 269 Electoral College votes, not 270 as a tie is as good as a win. Presuming he carries FLA/NC/OH and the "Kerry states" of 2012, plus Iowa (currently Trump +3.7) and Maine's Congressional District 2 where he leads by +7.5 (10/27 +4.2) he is 9 votes short.

Winning Nevada would get him to 266, still 3 votes short. Winning Colorado would get him to 269 and the presidency. Alternatively Nevada plus New Hampshire would be 270. How is he polling in those three states? Nevada promising but the other two, not so good but Pennsylvania a surprise mover.

Bearing in mind the aggregate of some of these states polls reflect some of Trump's worst weeks or are well out of date. He is within or well outside of the margin of error (MOE) but it would be foolishly optimistic to say they are certainties.

Nevada -4.2 (10/27 -2.0) but he hasn't led in any poll since 9/20
Colorado -7.2 (10/27 -6.2) Trump hasn't led in any poll since 9/23
New Hampshire -4.7 (-6.5)  But he has not led in any poll of the state and as of 27/10 aggregate has moved against him.The latest poll from Monmouth puts him at only-4, a five point shift in their poll in four weeks, so the state bears watching especially as Johnson has 9% and may collapse.

Some consider Pennsylvania -6.2 (10/27 -5.0) Michigan -6.0 (10/27-6.0) or Wisconsin -7.0 (10/27 -6.7) within reach but there are no polling indicators which would support Wisconsin but Pennsylvania is now in margin of error territory. A shock win in either (or Virginia) would elect Trump.

Again at this point it is down to Nevada/Colorado/New Hampshire with Nevada/New Hampshire seeming the best chance. If he did win Colorado it would be unique that winning 1 Electoral Vote from Maine's CD2 would give him the presidency.

What would not be unique would Gary Johnson and Stein, currently at 12.7% in the latest New Hampshire aggregates and  6.3% in Nevada, costing the Dem's the presidency, it would be a repeat of Nader's spoiler role in 2000. Clinton is up only +5 in New Mexico, down from Obama's +10 win in 2012 reflecting Johnson's influence there.

Exactly As Predicted;Third party Collapse;Aggregate MSM Polls Converging; Clinton Falls To +2

The aggregate of the three latest polls in the RCP aggregation is Clinton +2 if as is sensible the idiotic ABC "poll" which had Clinton +12 a day agois removed.

Even if taken back to 1023 and non-trackers are included Clinton's lead has fallen to only +3.2 points. Gary Johnson peaked at 9.2 late September and has steadily declined and will continue to do so, where his remaining 3-4% available support goes to will be crucial in the key states. IMO opinion the majority will go to Trump.

An indication of how momentum is going is the latest USC/LATimes poll which saw Trump jump by +1.5 in two days and Bloomberg putting Florida, the most important state into Trump's camp. Clearly Trump's incredible hard work in the state is bearing fruit as Clinton rests on her media supported laurels. 

Don't need to be a weatherman

Watch the media narrative change to "it's a horse race' or other such nonsense if the trend to Trump continues.

10/24 Five Honest Tracking Polls Aggregate Update; Clinton +0.3

UPI/C has finally updated it's polling after nothing since 10/15. The poll leans Clinton and today's result of Clinton +3.0 a drop of 3.5 points for her since their last poll report.

The last two days polls have been sub-optimal for Trump as he declined in PPD from +1.4 to +0.6, a sharp drop in USC/LATimes from +0.3 to minus 1.3 and a two point drop in IBD to a tie.

USC has shown these sharp fluctuations before and the next few polls across these five trackers will be instructive. 

IBD is a concern as it is rated the most accurate and whilst Rasmussen has held up at Trump +2 the general trend over the last few days has been negative. That said the aggregate is still basically a tie with Clinton at a tiny 
+0.3 point lead.

Over time Clinton has declined in the aggregate of the four original polls excluding IBD from her high on 10/11 of +3.7 to +0.4 today

Where Will Bulk Of Johnson's 6% And Stein's 2.2% Support Go On Election Day?

In the 2012 election Gary Johnson got less than 1% of the national vote 0.99% to be exact. The Greens Jill Stein got 0.36% for a combined total of 1.35%

As of today's Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls Johnson is on 6.0% and Stein 2.20% an increase of +5.0 for Johnson and +1.84 for Stein. Their combined total increase is +6.84.

Johnson peaked at 9.2% in mid-September and has slowly been declining, as would be expected, from 9% to 8% to 7% and now 6%. Stein peaked at 4% in August and has also been declining slowly, but has been around the 2.0% to 2.60% since mid-September.

It would appear that Stein has picked up some of the ex-Sanders supporters and it may be that, as in many countries world-wide, the Greens have a support base which grows slowly but does grow.

Gary Johnson on the other hand at his 9.2% peak was clearly a vehicle for the "Never Trump's" and "Never Hillary" voters as it is doubtful in the extreme that 8% more voters had become entranced with Libertarian-ism over the last four years. I would further venture that many of those 8% would struggle to advise anything about Johnson or his platform.

In the majority  of cases where a protest party has an upsurge in poll support during a campaign, it melts like the snow when election day arrives, and the "never whomever" people are faced with the prospect of the opposition party actually winning and hold their collective noses. Ross Perot is of course an obvious exception but with respect to Johnson he is no Perot in profile or resources.

I would not be surprised in the least if Johnson doesn't even get a 100% increase from 2012 to 2% which leaves around 4% of his current polling available. At this point I enter into the world of conjecture, but I venture to say that it is conjecture based on years of watching elections and in-depth reading, so here goes.

I believe that the majority of Johnson's support over 2012 are Republicans who have not been able to bring themselves to support Trump. These voters would include utterly unhappy Cruz, Jeb and supporters of the other 10-12 of Trumps primary opponents (a few like Carson have come on board). I believe that the majority of them will, facing the prospect of four years of Hillary, a leftist Supreme Court and who knows what foreign policy entanglements, will bite the bullet and vote Trump in the privacy of the polling booth.

What Johnson gets in his native New Mexico is of no interest, but in the must win states for Trump the pressure on Republicans who stated they were going to vote Johnson, will be enormous.

In Florida, Trump's most vital state, Johnson is averaging 3.4% and Stein 1.4. Clinton's poll lead average is +3.4 so the pressure on their currently declared supporters is massive.

North Carolina (Stein not on the ballot) Clinton leads by 2.5 points Johnson has 5.7%

Ohio Trump leads by 0.6 points while Johnson has 5.6% and Stein 2.0%

Nevada Clinton +4.2 points Johnson 5.5% (Stein not on ballot)

Pennsylvania Clinton +6.2  Johnson 4.8% Stein 2.6%

If in the final days Trump's polling has moved closer to Clinton both nationally and in these key states, the signal to the voters who have inflated both Johnson and Stein's number will be clear. 

That is, they may well hold the absolute key to who will be elected on November 8th. They know it won't be either of Johnson or Stein but it may well be their alternate, final, choice.

Massive Positive Reaction Even From MSM To Trump's "CONTRACT WITH THE AMERICAN VOTER"

- OCTOBER 22, 2016 -

​WHAT THEY ARE SAYING ABOUT TRUMP’S GROUNDBREAKING CONTRACT WITH THE AMERICAN VOTER
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/p...

WSJ: “He set a newly serious tone…His agenda for his first 100 days echoed proposals he has been touting on the campaign trail for months—tax cuts, a crackdown on illegal immigration and renegotiation of trade deals.” (WSJ, 10/22/16)

Washington Times' SA Miller: "Trump closing argument is battle cry against Clinton corruption" "Donald Trump called on voters Saturday to help him defeat a “totally rigged system,” delivering a speech billed as the closing argument for his presidential campaign that became a battle cry against the forces that he said conspire against him and the American people." (Washington Times, 10/22/16)

The Hill: “Trump outlines first 100 days” (The Hill, 10/22/16)

Newsmax’s Sandy Fitzgerald: “GOP nominee Donald Trump Saturday outlined an ambitious plan for his first 100 days in office, saying on the first day alone he has several steps he plans to take to end Washington's corruption.” (Newsmax, 10/22/16)

Washington Post: “In his speech on Saturday, Trump listed more than two dozen things that he wants to do, including amending the Constitution to create term limits in Congress, renegotiating NAFTA and other trade deals, overwriting “every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama,” and suspending immigration from “terror-prone regions.” (WaPo, 10/22/16)

Washington Examiner: “Donald Trump's first 100 days in office will include orders to suspend immigration from terror-prone countries, roll back President Obama's executive orders and cancel federal funding to sanctuary cities.” (Washington Examiner, 10/22/16)

Dailymail's David Martosko: “Trump's 'Gettysburg address' makes closing argument for choosing him and unveils first-100-days agenda as he promises 'the kind of change that only arrives once in a lifetime'” (DailyMail, 10/22/16)

CNN’s Alice Stewart: “This @realDonaldTrump 100 day action plan is strong.” (Twitter, 10/22/16)

Daily Caller’s Matt Lewis: “Trump is hitting a populist message about the rules being rigged in the US economy. "Change has to come from outside..." (Twitter, 10/22/16)

Lifezette’s Kozak: “Speaking in Gettysburg, PA, the site of the bloodiest battle ever fought on American soil and the location where President Abraham Lincoln delivered the eternal Gettysburg Address, Trump pledged to bring change to Washington and unity to a broken nation.” (Lifezette, 10/22/16)

Dean Cain: “I'm liking the Trump address at #Gettysburg right now... term limits!!” (Twitter, 10/22/16)

Fox News’ Laura Ingraham: “This is the best speech of the campaign -- SUBSTANTIVE, CLEAR, pro-American workers and he is not shouting. @realDonaldTrump” (Twitter, 10/22/16)

Fox News’ KT MacFarland: “@realDonaldTrump is giving a FANTASTIC speech #Gettysburg - A new Reagan Rev to repair economy, peace through strength, restore patriotism” (Twitter, 10/22/16)

Fox News’ Gina Gentry Louden: “Reform candidate, @realDonaldTrump gives speech of the election cycle: Eliminates regs, corruption, & creates #JOBS! #DrainTheSwamp#maga!” (Twitter, 10/22/16)

Cox Radio’s Jamie Dupree: “Trump says his "100 day action plan" is a contract between him and the American voter.” (Twitter, 10/22/16)

Breitbart’s Swoyer: “Donald Trump Promises Change in Gettysburg Speech: ‘Has to Come from Outside Our Very Broken System’” “Donald Trump addressed the nation from Gettysburg, Pennsylvania — not far from where President Lincoln delivered his famous address in 1863 — on Saturday afternoon, where he laid out his closing arguments ahead of the election in 17 days.” (Breitbart, 10/22/16)

Tracking Polls 21/10 Bring Clinton's Aggregate Lead Down From +7.1 To +5.3

A striking turnaround for Donald Trump in the tracking polls and very interesting developments in the "one off" polls

In five days Clinton has gone from being +2 to being -2, a fall of four points as Trump leads in the Rasmussen poll by +2

In the PPD tracker Clinton fell from 1.7 to a Trump lead of +1.4 a 3.1 turnaround

And in the USC/LATimes poll Trump increased from -0.6 to +0.2

I have added IBD Polling in to the trackers list and to the aggregation in place of UPI/C which is too erratic i nits publishing

Eric Dondero R. ‏@DonderolibtR  8 hours ago

Eric Dondero R. Retweeted Bill Mitchell

Whoa! Did you guys see this? IBD has Trump ahead by 2 but has a +8 Dem sample.

An aggregate figure can't be done with UPI/C  holding back its results but on current polling with IBD Trump is back in the lead in the aggregate a +1.4

If we look at ten days ago, Clinton's height in the tracking polls on 10/11, she has declined sharply in all four.

USC/LATimes -3.2 Rasmussen -5.7 PPD -4.4 UPI/C -1.6 for an aggregate drop of -3.7

Trump's lead in Tracking polls starts to bring Clinton's aggregate lead down.

All polls 10/18 46.2% +7.1 10/21 44.8 +5.3

AGGREGATE OF FOUR ONE OFF POLLS 10/20 Clinton +6.25

AGGREGATE OF FOUR TRACKING POLLS

10/21 Trump +1.4

Trackers Rasmussen/IBD/USLATimes/PPD

One off polls Quinnipiac/YOUGOV-Economist/Fox/ Bloomberg