In June 2020 I did a comprehensive, ground breaking analysis of all available polls from Real Clear Politics and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.
The result were staggering, the aggregate, which included a few low bias polls, to the Democratic Party was +7.6 with some polls being as high a D+13!
After the pollster humiliating disasters in 2016 and 2020 the message appears to have sunk in that if they continued with their obvious biased polling they would lose what little credibility they had left. Thus there has been a noticeable shift in a more balanced polling since the 2020 election.
For example Quinnipiac, which used the be at the forefront of some preposterous Dem leaning polls, has now become one of the most conservative pollster usually reporting President Biden's approval numbers well below even the Republican orientated polls.
The fact that prior to 2021 most such polling outfits had their "weightings" wrong i.e. they failed to include enough rural voters, the propensity for Republicans not to participate in polls in their analysis and didn't allow for the Republican turnout differential. Given the marked drop in polls giving Biden a substantial higher rating over Rasmussen/Trafalgar (both of which have been "upgraded" in their respective ratings by FiveThirtyEight it appears these lessons have been taken on board to one degree or another.
I have done a further comprehensive analysis of 26 available pollsters and the bias difference is remarkable, From D+7 to now D+2 (rounded and including consensus) a shift of 5 points and now near exact the CNN exit poll result from 2020
I have, as previously, included links to every poll that includes their Dem/Rep/Ind demographics. Unfortunately a small number, some with high profiles, do not indicate such data or "hide" it in their questionnaires. Where such obscured data is available I have indicted that the ratio are the result of outside, assisted, analysis but the data is still linked.
Here are the most current polls with their demographics, Dem or GOP lean, and their poll links. Any errors of tabulation would be minor and given the large sample would have minimal affect of the aggregate of all polls. It may be necessary to cut and paste some links, all links are active as of this writing.
NPR/PBS/Marist D+6 33/27/38 RV
Tarrance Group RV Even
30% Rep, 40% Ind, 30%
https://prod-static.gop.com/media/documents/RNC_Data_Survey_Executive_Summary_1_1646064029.pdf
McLaughlin D+1 LV
37/36/27
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/National-Monthly-February-2022-Release.pdf
Reuters/IPSOS D+7 46/39/15
AV
Reuters/IPSOS D+8.8
D+8.8 The Reuters/Ipsos poll is
conducted online in English throughout the United States. The latest poll
gathered responses from 1,005 adults in total including 439 Democrats and 351
Republicans. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 4 percentage
points.
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/index.html
Rasmussen D+2 LV
D35, R33, IND32
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1503408115672363016/photo/1
IBD/TIPP Not Available 2020;
2020 (Not Included)
IBD: 1413 Registered Voters weighted D40, R30, Ind30 -
CBS D+6 AV (Consensus analysis)
35.9/29.6/34.4
D/R/I
"The breakdown for each question reveals the answer: 52.3/47.7 Biden v Trump (665/606, so way less than overall sample, and slight Biden oversample) and 35.9D/29.6R/34.4I (701/578/672 - most of the sample). D+6.3 seems overweighted D.
Based on
https://drive.google.com/file/d/16Y21kBKAQnfc-MVyhlYNIMWD8iGjU_Nk/view
SELZER/GRINNELL AV Even 34/34/27/5
https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2021-03/GCNP%20Methodology%2003-31-21_1.pdf
· Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican,
or an Independent?
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yTbbk7etuyPVr7Id_QlKPKl_BbUGC6MN/edit
|
Democrat |
33% |
|
Republican |
36% |
|
Independent |
28% |
|
Some other political party |
3% |
Economist/YouGov Economist/YouGov D+3 38/35/21 AV
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/2g5l01eto4/econToplines.pdf
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/January-2022_HHP_Crosstab.pdf
Democrat Republican Independent Other (vol.) No opinion
27/26/ 40/ 4/ 3
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21282643-2022-02-24-trend-for-release
Associated Press NORC
D+8
https://apnorc.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/SCOTUS-topline-2_22-2.pdf
FOX NEWS Varies between
D+5 and GOP +3 Aggregate D+0.2 RV
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/february-2022-national-poll-inflation-tops-nation-s-concerns-perception-of-covid-s-public-health-threat-drops
USA TODAY/SUFFOLK D+1.8 32.7 /30.9/31.5 RV
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/02_28_2022_complete_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=6644AE77129EC0F4D711EB83D90CBC0E683DA658
https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/03/08120211/2203034_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v3_SH.pdf
GALLUP D+3 RV
29/27/42 AV
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
TRAFALGAR D +3.7 39.3/35.6/25.1 LV
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/TRF-Biden-Approval-0217-Poll-Report.pdf
MONMOUTH R+5
26/31/33 January 2020 RV
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_012622/
March 2022 +1 29% Republican 43%
Independent 28% Democrat RV
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_031722/
INSIDER ADVANTAGE LV N/A
NBC NEWS 41/39/13/7 D+2 RV
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21182470-220027-survey-1-20-22-release
file:///C:/Users/mjshe/OneDrive/Documents/Sound%20recordings/Q1%202022%20Bullfinch%20Nationwide
42/40/13/5 RV
https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJPOLL032022.pdf
Not Included
Pew: 4040 "2020 Voters" weighted D57, R39, Ind4 -
News Nation Decision Desk R+2.84
- Republican Party: 35.48%
- Democratic Party: 32.64%
- Independent: 24.6%
- Another party: 7.28%
- https://www.newsnationnow.com/polls/full-report-results-of-newsnations-state-of-the-union-poll/
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