Saturday, February 13, 2016

Five Key Moments That Shaped Trump's Dominance Of The Campaign

There will no doubt be more twists and turns in the Republican primary to come and of course no pundit/journalist/blogger has any idea what may happen. What we can say with certainty is that at this writing Donald Trump is leading a fast winnowing pack.

When the campaign commenced there were, incredibly,  seventeen candidates today there are six and it would be expected that after South Carolina and Nevada there will be a maximum of five and after Florida possibly three stalwarts.

Getting to this point has seen nine candidates drop out. Some like Scott Walker and Rick Perry left very early on when poor debates and polls showed they had no real strength and their money dried up quickly. Others like Santorum and Huckabee carried on with name recognition and shoe string campaigns till reality, in the shape of terrible performances in Iowa and New Hampshire marked their end.

The rest Christie, Jindal, Fiorina, Pataki, Paul, Graham, Gilmore stuck it out as long as they could in the hope that lightning might strike-which it didn't. But apart from their lack of funds and a solid base of support events, five key factors outside their control were the reason why their campaigns failed and why Trump is now so far in front.


1. Donald Trump's statement on Muslim immigration instantly electrified voters and transformed his campaign from what had been, right up to that moment a derisory media pile-on into a major force, although it has taken most, but still not all, of the media six months to finally acknowledge that fact.
In the New Hampshire exit polls 66% of GOP N.H. primary voters supported a ban on Muslims entering the US. 

Trump's stand on immigration was the lightning bolt that not only lit up his campaign but cast doubt on the campaign of Rubio especially, and all other candidates whose record showed some ambivalence to the immigration hard line Trump espoused.


2. The Trump/Megyn Kelly debate collision. This clearly set up situation by Fox which was intended to bring Trump down had the entirely opposite effect. Trump reinforced his persona as a man who could not be bullied and would stand up for himself even if that stance was judged, by the media, as being a mistake that would end his campaign.

Not only did that not happen but, as has happened time and again,Trump sucked all the air out out the other candidates who were ignored whilst the media went berserk over Trump. This again assisted Trump as the pile on simply reinforced in the minds of the Republican rank and file that the media is simply a hateful arm of the Establishment. Trump then built on his reinforced image to contrast himself with, especially, Jeb Bush who he mercilessly lampooned as weak in contrast.


3 Governor Palin's endorsement. Trump had taken a large lead in the national polls, but as the Iowa election drew near and Senator Cruz began his assault on the Evangelical vote Trump began a noticeable slide in the polls. At the same time the media began their pumping up of Senator Rubio as "The Sane Establishment Choice."

At this crucial time Trump produced his trump card which, possibly irreversibly, changed the race back in his favor. Governor Palin's endorsement legitimized Trump in the eyes of her millions of supporters, Evangelical conservatives and elements of the Tea Party. Although there were ridiculous claims that Trump has "bought Palin for money or office" her incorruptible Christian ethics made such assertions ludicrous.

Two things happened. Firstly there were, without exaggeration, over 10,000 articles across all media attacking Palin. That such a frenzy should take place proved beyond doubt the fear the Establishment and their media lackey's have of her and her power. Secondly, not only did Trump's
campaign right itself but he (like McCain in 2008) had an immediate rise in the polls from exactly the point of her endorsement.



4. Trump's second place finish in Iowa. The media. or at least the honest elements, now admit that Trump pulled off a near miracle by finishing second In Iowa. He represented the same East Coast New York element (that Cruz decried) as Giuliani who fared disastrously amongst the Evangelicals in the cornfields. Cruz had played the Evangelical card to its utmost whilst his team engaged in numerous dirty tricks at Carson's expense.

in Iowa, without Palin's endorsment I have little doubt his campaign would have been in serious trouble-if not damaged beyond repair. Not only would Cruz have won by a substantial margin but Rubio, with the media driving him on and into second place, would have been a major force going into New Hampshire. At that point it might have become a Cruz/Rubio battle with Trump's campaign in danger of collapsing. As it was Palin's endorsement was a game changer.


5. Marco Rubio's meltdown. If anyone was wounded coming out of Iowa it was, oddly, Senator Cruz who had one day to enjoy his win before an avalanche of charges of "dirty tricks" fell on his head. A media that has no love for trump has an even bigger antipathy to Cruz so they were happy to pile on along with Trump, Carson , and various Iowa officials and even the Governor.

That left Rubio, the Establishment/media darling as the threat to Trump in New Hampshire. And here the fickle finger of fate entered the scene. Rubio was polling in the mid twenties and his plan of 3/2/1 (third Iowa,second New Hampshire, first South Carolina) seemed feasible. Fate determined otherwise.

At the debate just prior to the voting Rubio was asked a question which he turned into an attack on President Obama " he knows exactly what he is doing." Then, by pure chance and disastrously for Rubio the next person to have a question was Governor Christie who tore Rubio to shreds. In what has rightly been described as the worst collapse of a candidate in any presidential campaign Rubio's robotic performance under attack was pitiable.

Exit polls showed many last minute deciders were influenced by the debate and Trump had a victory so large, winning every demographic, that the media could not find anyway of decrying it. Yes, Trump, after Palin's endorsement and his excellent Iowa showing was going to win New Hampshire, but not by such a landslide and with the added benefit of seeing off a possibly permanently damaged major rival, and having his weakest opponent Kasich come in second heading to South Carolina.

Which of the five key moments was the most important? They were all vital but, in my view, it was Palin's endorsement. I believe the massive, unprecedented ensuing media attack on her supports that view. See; "Palin's Endorsement Saved Trump's Campaign For New Hampshire"

Today's polls, both nationwide and in South Carolina show Trump with huge leads against a fractured opposition who are battling among themselves for second place. But that's where we are now and the above story is how we got here. Where we are in a few months nobody knows, but when the history of the campaign is written those will be the five key factors to just prior to the next debate and the South Carolina election.

Friday, February 12, 2016

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 And another anti-who would possibly wear it? Gilmore wrapping paper for that special gift


















Trump's Incredible Post New Hampshire Poll Day;Huge Leads Nationwide/S.Carolina/Tennessee/Mass.

The first polls after Donald Trump's triumph in New Hampshire are bad news for the establishment/media and for his campaign rivals.

Trump now starting to do well among Latino's;

"A new poll confirms it. In the national survey, which was conducted by Beck Research on behalf of the American Federation for Children, 38 percent of Latinos favor Trump. Ted Cruz got 15 percent. Jeb Bush pulled in 14 percent. And Marco Rubio, the guy who’s supposed to be the one who could unite the party and win? Just 8 percent."
Si Se Puede!
In new poll on Latino voters finds Donald Trump has more support from Republican Latino voters than Cuban-Americans Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined."


Astounding Massachusetts poll;



Trump Holds Massive 31 Point Lead Over Rubio in Massachusetts – 43-12%

MassachusettsMassachusetts


Donald Trump has a commanding lead in Massachusetts, pulling in more support than the next 4 candidates combined. He currently leads Marco Rubio by 31 points – 43-12% – about 18 days away from the election.
If you’re Donald Trump, it’s hard to get better news out of The Bay State, considering there are 39 proportionally allocated delegates up for grabs. The 5% threshold looks like it will be achievable by everyone except perhaps Ben Carson (Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie suspended their campaigns during the poll), meaning most candidates still standing for Super Tuesday will walk away with at least a couple delegates.
Super Tuesday looks like the day that could seal the nomination for Trump, especially if Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Bush are all still in the race. Several states splitting votes for second place in what increasingly looks like a “Trump vs Not-Trump” primary race could put everyone else in VP mode.
It should be interesting to see if anybody drops out after the South Carolina primary next week. A poor showing from Ben Carson or John Kasich could mean curtains for them. With the way things are playing out, it does seem like we will realistically know who the Republican candidate will be on March 16th. Either Trump will build an overwhelming delegate lead, or one of the the “Not-Trump” candidates will have consolidated the anti-Trump vote.
Results:
Donald Trump – 43%
Marco Rubio – 12%
Ted Cruz – 10%
John Kasich – 9%
Jeb Bush – 8%
Ben Carson – 6%
Chris Christie – 3%
Carly Fiorina – 2%
Other – 0%
Undecided – 7%
massrepdata1massrepdata2massrepdata3


In the vital state of South Carolina
First SCarolina poll and result exactly same as Jan 17th massive 16 point lead.




From South Carolina House Caucus Poll LINK
The South Carolina House Republican Caucus consists of all the Republican members of the State House of Representatives. Heading into the 2015-2016 session, the GOP holds 78 of the 124 House seats.





Bill Kristol-as usual got it completely wrong with his top secret "insider poll"


In Tennessee another new poll with Trump miles ahead by 16 points

"A new poll from Middle Tennessee State University shows Donald Trump holding a strong lead over second place 
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
97%
 in Tennessee, which will be one of the states voting in the important March 1 “SEC Primary.”

Trump was in first place with 33 percent, followed by Cruz in a distant second place with 17 percent, according to the poll:
When asked to name the one person they would most like to win the 2016 presidential election, 33 percent of self-described Republican voters named Trump. Cruz came in second, chosen by a significantly smaller 17 percent of Republicans.
But 28 percent of GOP voters said they did not know who they would like to see win.
Ben Carson, who led the presidential field among Tennessee voters in the October 2015 MTSU Poll, drew just 7 percent of Republican voters in the latest sample. The remaining Republican candidates also registered in the single digits at best.
The poll was conducted of 600 registered voters, not likely primary voters, between January 15 and January 20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent."


Nationwide "Morning Consult" finds a massive 27 point lead for "The Donald"





After winning New Hampshire’s presidential primaries by wide margins, New York real estate magnate Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders are soaring to new heights among their respective party’s voters, a new Morning Consult poll finds, signaling momentum as voters in new states prepare to weigh in.
Trump, who doubled his nearest rival in Tuesday’s vote, attracts 44 percent of the vote among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, the highest level of support he has achieved in a Morning Consult survey.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who won the Iowa caucuses and finished third in New Hampshire, clocks in second with 17 percent of the vote, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, both at 10 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush takes 8 percent, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich wins 4 percent.
February 10-11, 2016February 3-7, 2016February 2-3, 2016
Donald Trump44%38%38%
Ted Cruz17%17%14%
Ben Carson10%9%9%
Marco Rubio10%15%12%
Jeb Bush8%6%5%
John Kasich4%2%2%
Someone Else1%6%12%
Don't Know/No Opinion6%8%8%



"Those are registered, not likely, voters, but if you’re looking for evidence that Trump’s big win in New Hampshire is building momentum for him in other states, here’s some. The fact that he’s blasted through 40 percent, even temporarily, also seems significant in that the mid- to high 30s have been his ceiling in most national polls until now. In fact, not only is 44 percent his best take ever in a national poll, it’s only the third time he’s cracked the 40-point ceiling. He reached 41 percent a few weeks ago in a CNN survey and 41 again in a Monmouth survey in early December. (Both also polls of registered voters, it should be noted.) The idea that the field will winnow and the anti-Trump faction will carry someone else to victory continues to seem plausible-ish to lots of righty commentators, but I wonder how many Republicans out there who like Trump and know him much better than the other candidates by dint of his celebrity are newly open to him as nominee now that he’s scored a major win (and may be on the brink of another). One of the key “arguments” against Trump for some undecideds, I think, is “c’mon, we’re not gonna nominate Trump.” The weaker that argument seems, the more undecideds it may shake loose."

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Links To Recent, Far Sighted, Popular Columns

Cruz Sold His Soul For A Mess Of Iowa Pottage LINK



Palin's Endorsement Saved Trump's Campaign For New Hampshire LINK



If Christie Had Not Run For Second Term He'd Be Nominee  LINK



Kasich Coming 2nd In New Hampshire Ideal Result For Trump LINK



Palin's Endorsement Of Trump Also About Kasich As Well As Cruz LINK   JAN 19TH



Chaos Theory; Bloomberg, Sanders And Trump 3rd Parties?  LINK


The Outlines Of A Bloomberg/Bush Ticket Take Shape LINK


If Bloomberg Runs-Who Wins Trump Or Hillary? (Hint "Run Mike Run") LINK



Complete Humiliation Of Politico's Roger Simon And Beltway "Elite" By Trump And Palin LINK



'FiveThirtyEight's' Nate Silver's Reputation Utterly Destroyed By Trump In "3rd Stage Of Doom"

LINK

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Complete Humiliation Of Politico's Roger Simon And Beltway "Elite" By Trump And Palin

First there's this loser which typifies the arrogant media who just won't let go of their preconceptions right till the last moment; THE WEEK
You can tweet him at @pegobry
OPINION
Iowa is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump

Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry

Iowa: Ted Cruz first, Marco Rubio second, and Donald Trump third.
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There have been countless Beltway pundits who have come crashing to earth with the elitist denigration of Donald Trump and Sarah Palin-just a few (23 actually) with their arrogant comments are HERE

But the ones who stand about above all are the "analysts" like Philip Bump, Dana Milbank, of The 'Washington Post' and Nate Silver and Harry Enten of  'FiveThirtyEight' and Charlie Cook ('Cook Report')
This crew have purveyed charts and graphs and lines and squiggles circles and squares which have one message in common. "Trump can't win."

They've advised Trump has a 1% chance, We've seen this scenario before with "Cain, Gingrich who briefly led then collapsed in the polls" "Trump's ceiling is 10% or 15% or 20% or 25% or 30%" Trump has "stalled, is in decline has hit his ceiling. lost momentum "the trend is your friend."

So many memories! The meme's carried on when even Blind Bob could see that Trump was ascending. "Carson will pass him, Cruz will pass him, When the field thins Trump will go down." "Trump crowds are only attending for the entertainment (people standing freezing cold for hours for entertainment is a novel concept). "Trump supporters haven't' caucused before and are not likely to show up"
My favorite, well one of them there are so many, was "Trump won't even win one state."

What is the most delightful thing to reflect on is that all these pundits have been beaten by a housewife from rural Alaska-it is really amusing, and by a sharp New York City tycoon who has run rings around them and their whole clique and cabal!

If these gentlemen were actually productively employed,say they worked for Trump, and produced failure after failure the message to them would be clear "Your fired." Unfortunately they will blithely carry on tossing red meat to their clearly blank minded audience as if nothing they said previously ever took place. Oh, except for Milbank who ever so cleverly announced he would eat his column if Trump were the nominee. I hope he is marinating it in Tabasco-enjoy!

Charles C.W. Cooke continues a long unhappy line of Englishmen who deep down don't understand the American political system and psyche. His elitism to Trump and Palin knows no bounds and perhaps he might think of taking a sober look at his prejudices-but alas in fear it is a quixotic thought. On the other hand hopefully he will follow his predecessor back to Blighty.

There's J D Rucker at Redstate

Donald Trump is Setting Up Fox News to be the Scapegoat for an ‘Unfair’ Iowa Loss We are about to witness bankruptcy #5 for a Trump-related entity. This time, he’s filing a strategic bankruptcy on behalf of his campaign to establish protection against the blow back from his upcoming loss in Iowa

********************************************************************
At The Washington Post
Here's more of Philip Bump's graph's and charts and maybe this and maybe that and perhaps Trump's supporters won't turn out
********************************************************************
Maxwell Tani at Business Insider

Fascinating variable shows how Donald Trump's lead over Ted Cruz could melt away in Iowa

********************************************************************
Then there's the king of elitism David Brooks;

"David Brooks: "It's Going To Be Rubio! I'm Telling You It's Going To Be Rubio!"

*************************************************************************
Hate witch Kathleen Parker who has a weird obsession with Palin looks an utter fool (or even more foolish) now;

Trump is listening hard and trying figure out what this strange creature from Alaska is talking about. Trying to gauge damage. Oh dear."

For pure Palin hate the Macbeth witches cauldron biggest losers from the distaff side are Gail Collins
Peggy Noonan Robin Abcarian Maureen Dowd Joan Walsh Kaili Joy Gray and of course Rebecca Schoenkopf



**********************************************************************
But for pure snide vindictiveness Politico's Roger Simon takes the cake and his fall is all the more delightful for it.

After Governor Palin addressed CPAC a whole rat pack of elitist snobs led by Politico's Roger Simon not only wrote her obituary but they planted her coffin 20 feet down.

"The GOP angel of death." "In any case, she has now gone from a hopeless candidate to a laughably hopeless candidate. The media will never take her seriously again. The Grim Reaper has done its job

Simon declared ex-cathedra and that was supposed to be that. The only possible reduction in Simon's humiliation by a housewife from rural Alaska is that he is not alone a whole stable of Beltway elitists have come tumbling down with him as they cascade into the dustbin of history.

Politico under Simon's control the "brightest and the best" scenario, has run an endless campaign of denigration against Palin. How could this backwater woman possibly compete against the Establishment elite?

Not only has Simon and his ilk utterly misjudged Donald Trump, another humiliation for them, but a simple reading of Palin's history of being underestimated and then pulling off a "surprise" win would have been obvious. But so enveloped in their smug cocoons the blindingly obvious escaped them.

Palin has continued to populate Congress with candidates she endorses, 21 of 23 such were elected in the 2014 mid-terms including some who owe their primary campaign wins to her. She was the driving force behind the Tea Party triumphs of 2012 and has, obviously, been working with Donald Trump for some time to assist with his presidential run.

Only a fool would deny that Palin's endorsement of Trump in Iowa had an immediate effect on his come from behind poll numbers. The movement of women and Tea Party supporters in Iowa was dramatic and outlined even by the leftist media



Nicolle Wallace in The New York Times summed it up in one sentence "(Donald Trump)  Should he come out on top in Iowa, he has her to thank.

If Palin had endorsed Ted Cruz, whose career she made possible in the first place. he would have won Iowa and would be the nominee. She didn't, she endorsed Trump and he will now be the nominee and very possibly president. Simon's screed and pompous dismissal is the smallest footnote in history. Palin's role in the elections of 2012/2104/2016 are for the history books and 'serious journalists in which which Roger Simon is not included.

Here's proof from, of all people, Morning Joe;




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Nate Silver's Reputation Utterly Destroyed By Trump In "3rd Stage Of Doom"

Hillaryis44 summed it up concisely showing Silver is all over the place as Trump wins handily in New Hampshire.
Speaking of liars and cowards, Nate Silver. Silver is the “numbers guru” who used to write for the DailyKooks website and trash us. Silver, in his subsequent books and writings never disclosed he got campaign data from Obama in 2008. Silver lied his way to a top column at the New York Times and now has his own website. For months Silver gave Trump single digit (2%) chances to get the nomination. Unlike our on target analysis, Silver did not think Trump would win Iowa, let alone the nomination. Now, Nate Silver is backtracking.

Nate Silver, like many pollsters are running away from their lies now that Iowa votes in a few days. Silver and his lying friends are at this late hour, after their lies and stupid “analysis” have failed, busy rewriting. Today, Nate Silver tweeted a picture with the caption: “Just hanging out by the White House.” The picture is of Trump Tower.

****************************************

Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom
Nate Silver





Stage 1: Free-for-all (August 2015)

When it happens: This is the stage we’re in now; it will continue through the next couple of months.
Potential threat to Trump: Increased attention to other GOP candidates

Stage 2: Heightened scrutiny

When it happens: Mid-November or thereabouts, as voters up their level of attention to the campaign
Potential threat to Trump: Polling support doesn’t translate to likely, more-informed voters.

Stage 3: Iowa and New Hampshire

When it happens: Feb. 1 and Feb. 9, based on the provisional calendar.
Potential threat to Trump: Middling performance in one or both states, either in an absolute sense or relative to polls.
given his tendency to trumpet every favorable poll, he could also set himself up for a fall. A Trump who finishes in third place with 14 percent of the vote in Iowa won’t have much to brag about."
As you can see Silver is half way through his own 6 stages of doom
Trump's performance in Iowa was hardly middling, the second highest vote ever received in the caucus and more than Huckabee received in winning and who knows he might have won if not for the Cruz team's shenanigans.It is hardly to be believed Silver conceived a far right conservative winning Iowa against Trump instead of some Establishment pick.

As for "finishing third in Iowa with 14% of the vote" again, utter fail.
And, just to show more of this failure here's the FiveThirtyEight Team in (befuddled further  Trump fail dialogue) doubling down on their October "predictions" Silver actually had the nerve to revisit his original article in December without commenting on Trump not being "doomed"

natesilver: Well, I put his chances at 2 percent in that “stages of doom” article, which lays out a procedure for how you’d calculate them. If he has cleared Stage 1, his chances would double, to 4 percent."





Fair use notice: This website contains copyrighted material, the use of which may or may not have been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Excerpts of such material is made available for educational purposes, and as such this constitutes ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Act. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this website is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. Original material published on this website may be excerpted and the excerpt reproduced for the purpose of critical reviews. However, such original material may not be reproduced in full on another website or in any manner without prior approval from this website’s owner. In all cases when material from this website is reproduced in full or in part, the author and website must be credited by name and a hyperlink provided to this website