Monday, October 24, 2016

10/24 Five Honest Tracking Polls Aggregate Update; Clinton +0.3

UPI/C has finally updated it's polling after nothing since 10/15. The poll leans Clinton and today's result of Clinton +3.0 a drop of 3.5 points for her since their last poll report.

The last two days polls have been sub-optimal for Trump as he declined in PPD from +1.4 to +0.6, a sharp drop in USC/LATimes from +0.3 to minus 1.3 and a two point drop in IBD to a tie.

USC has shown these sharp fluctuations before and the next few polls across these five trackers will be instructive. 

IBD is a concern as it is rated the most accurate and whilst Rasmussen has held up at Trump +2 the general trend over the last few days has been negative. That said the aggregate is still basically a tie with Clinton at a tiny 
+0.3 point lead.

Over time Clinton has declined in the aggregate of the four original polls excluding IBD from her high on 10/11 of +3.7 to +0.4 today

Where Will Bulk Of Johnson's 6% And Stein's 2.2% Support Go On Election Day?

In the 2012 election Gary Johnson got less than 1% of the national vote 0.99% to be exact. The Greens Jill Stein got 0.36% for a combined total of 1.35%

As of today's Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls Johnson is on 6.0% and Stein 2.20% an increase of +5.0 for Johnson and +1.84 for Stein. Their combined total increase is +6.84.

Johnson peaked at 9.2% in mid-September and has slowly been declining, as would be expected, from 9% to 8% to 7% and now 6%. Stein peaked at 4% in August and has also been declining slowly, but has been around the 2.0% to 2.60% since mid-September.

It would appear that Stein has picked up some of the ex-Sanders supporters and it may be that, as in many countries world-wide, the Greens have a support base which grows slowly but does grow.

Gary Johnson on the other hand at his 9.2% peak was clearly a vehicle for the "Never Trump's" and "Never Hillary" voters as it is doubtful in the extreme that 8% more voters had become entranced with Libertarian-ism over the last four years. I would further venture that many of those 8% would struggle to advise anything about Johnson or his platform.

In the majority  of cases where a protest party has an upsurge in poll support during a campaign, it melts like the snow when election day arrives, and the "never whomever" people are faced with the prospect of the opposition party actually winning and hold their collective noses. Ross Perot is of course an obvious exception but with respect to Johnson he is no Perot in profile or resources.

I would not be surprised in the least if Johnson doesn't even get a 100% increase from 2012 to 2% which leaves around 4% of his current polling available. At this point I enter into the world of conjecture, but I venture to say that it is conjecture based on years of watching elections and in-depth reading, so here goes.

I believe that the majority of Johnson's support over 2012 are Republicans who have not been able to bring themselves to support Trump. These voters would include utterly unhappy Cruz, Jeb and supporters of the other 10-12 of Trumps primary opponents (a few like Carson have come on board). I believe that the majority of them will, facing the prospect of four years of Hillary, a leftist Supreme Court and who knows what foreign policy entanglements, will bite the bullet and vote Trump in the privacy of the polling booth.

What Johnson gets in his native New Mexico is of no interest, but in the must win states for Trump the pressure on Republicans who stated they were going to vote Johnson, will be enormous.

In Florida, Trump's most vital state, Johnson is averaging 3.4% and Stein 1.4. Clinton's poll lead average is +3.4 so the pressure on their currently declared supporters is massive.

North Carolina (Stein not on the ballot) Clinton leads by 2.5 points Johnson has 5.7%

Ohio Trump leads by 0.6 points while Johnson has 5.6% and Stein 2.0%

Nevada Clinton +4.2 points Johnson 5.5% (Stein not on ballot)

Pennsylvania Clinton +6.2  Johnson 4.8% Stein 2.6%

If in the final days Trump's polling has moved closer to Clinton both nationally and in these key states, the signal to the voters who have inflated both Johnson and Stein's number will be clear. 

That is, they may well hold the absolute key to who will be elected on November 8th. They know it won't be either of Johnson or Stein but it may well be their alternate, final, choice.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Massive Positive Reaction Even From MSM To Trump's "CONTRACT WITH THE AMERICAN VOTER"

- OCTOBER 22, 2016 -
WSJ: “He set a newly serious tone…His agenda for his first 100 days echoed proposals he has been touting on the campaign trail for months—tax cuts, a crackdown on illegal immigration and renegotiation of trade deals.” (WSJ, 10/22/16)
Washington Times' SA Miller: "Trump closing argument is battle cry against Clinton corruption" "Donald Trump called on voters Saturday to help him defeat a “totally rigged system,” delivering a speech billed as the closing argument for his presidential campaign that became a battle cry against the forces that he said conspire against him and the American people." (Washington Times, 10/22/16)
The Hill: “Trump outlines first 100 days” (The Hill, 10/22/16)
Newsmax’s Sandy Fitzgerald: “GOP nominee Donald Trump Saturday outlined an ambitious plan for his first 100 days in office, saying on the first day alone he has several steps he plans to take to end Washington's corruption.” (Newsmax, 10/22/16)
Washington Post: “In his speech on Saturday, Trump listed more than two dozen things that he wants to do, including amending the Constitution to create term limits in Congress, renegotiating NAFTA and other trade deals, overwriting “every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama,” and suspending immigration from “terror-prone regions.” (WaPo, 10/22/16)
Washington Examiner: “Donald Trump's first 100 days in office will include orders to suspend immigration from terror-prone countries, roll back President Obama's executive orders and cancel federal funding to sanctuary cities.” (Washington Examiner, 10/22/16)
Dailymail's David Martosko: “Trump's 'Gettysburg address' makes closing argument for choosing him and unveils first-100-days agenda as he promises 'the kind of change that only arrives once in a lifetime'” (DailyMail, 10/22/16)
CNN’s Alice Stewart: “This @realDonaldTrump 100 day action plan is strong.” (Twitter, 10/22/16)
Daily Caller’s Matt Lewis: “Trump is hitting a populist message about the rules being rigged in the US economy. "Change has to come from outside..." (Twitter, 10/22/16)
Lifezette’s Kozak: “Speaking in Gettysburg, PA, the site of the bloodiest battle ever fought on American soil and the location where President Abraham Lincoln delivered the eternal Gettysburg Address, Trump pledged to bring change to Washington and unity to a broken nation.” (Lifezette, 10/22/16)
Dean Cain: “I'm liking the Trump address at #Gettysburg right now... term limits!!” (Twitter, 10/22/16)
Fox News’ Laura Ingraham: “This is the best speech of the campaign -- SUBSTANTIVE, CLEAR, pro-American workers and he is not shouting. @realDonaldTrump” (Twitter, 10/22/16)
Fox News’ KT MacFarland: “@realDonaldTrump is giving a FANTASTIC speech #Gettysburg - A new Reagan Rev to repair economy, peace through strength, restore patriotism” (Twitter, 10/22/16)
Fox News’ Gina Gentry Louden: “Reform candidate, @realDonaldTrump gives speech of the election cycle: Eliminates regs, corruption, & creates #JOBS! #DrainTheSwamp#maga!” (Twitter, 10/22/16)
Cox Radio’s Jamie Dupree: “Trump says his "100 day action plan" is a contract between him and the American voter.” (Twitter, 10/22/16)
Breitbart’s Swoyer: “Donald Trump Promises Change in Gettysburg Speech: ‘Has to Come from Outside Our Very Broken System’” “Donald Trump addressed the nation from Gettysburg, Pennsylvania — not far from where President Lincoln delivered his famous address in 1863 — on Saturday afternoon, where he laid out his closing arguments ahead of the election in 17 days.” (Breitbart, 10/22/16)

Tracking Polls 21/10 Bring Clinton's Aggregate Lead Down From +7.1 To +5.3

A striking turnaround for Donald Trump in the tracking polls and very interesting developments in the "one off" polls

In five days Clinton has gone from being +2 to being -2, a fall of four points as Trump leads in the Rasmussen poll by +2

In the PPD tracker Clinton fell from 1.7 to a Trump lead of +1.4 a 3.1 turnaround

And in the USC/LATimes poll Trump increased from -0.6 to +0.2

I have added IBD Polling in to the trackers list and to the aggregation in place of UPI/C which is too erratic i nits publishing

Whoa! Did you guys see this? IBD has Trump ahead by 2 but has a +8 Dem sample.

An aggregate figure can't be done with UPI/C  holding back its results but on current polling with IBD Trump is back in the lead in the aggregate a +1.4

If we look at ten days ago, Clinton's height in the tracking polls on 10/11, she has declined sharply in all four.
USC/LATimes -3.2 Rasmussen -5.7 PPD -4.4 UPI/C -1.6 for an aggregate drop of -3.7

Trump's lead in Tracking polls starts to bring Clinton's aggregate lead down.
All polls 10/18 46.2% +7.1 10/21 44.8 +5.3


10/21 Trump +1.4

Trackers Rasmussen/IBD/USLATimes/PPD
One off polls Quinnipiac/YOUGOV-Economist/Fox/ Bloomberg

Friday, October 21, 2016

Gov.Palin Rips Into Hillary In FaceBook Storm Of Posts (Links)

Even Democrats Were Cringing When Hillary Gave Her 'Late Term Abortion' Answers
During the final presidential debate on Wednesday, moderator Chris Wallace (“Fox News Sunday”) asked both candidates whether they would overturn Roe vs. Wade.
Donald Trump's response steered the conversation to late-term abortions, and Clinton was forced to defend the practice:
Rest of article and video clip at LINK
'WTF' Moment at 3rd Presidential Debate: Hillary Gives Away Time it Takes for US Nuclear Response

No one caught that Crooked Hillary stated on LIVE TV what our NUKE RESPONSE TIME IS 4 MIN??@FoxNews @DRUDGE 
Why is Hillary talking about the time it takes the U.S. to launch a nuclear strike against its enemies?
Sure, we get that you don't like The Donald, and Democrats and some moderates are petrified that Trump will get his hands on the nuclear football, but you're talking aboutthe time it takes the US to launch a nuclear strike against its enemies.
The “four-minute warning” has a history going back to the Cold War and describes the approximate time it took for the Soviet Union (they were communists, and were bad) to launch nuclear weapons at Great Britain. That time is around what it would take Putin to launch nukes: two to four minutes. But the U.S. launch response time?
Rest of article at LINK
Confession: I'm an Obama Admirer (Malik LOL) It was nice to shake Obama's hand the other night and whisper a belated "thank...
Hillary 'Horrified' Trump Might Not 'Accept' Election Results -- She Sang a Different Tune in 2000
Near the end of the third and final presidential debate, moderator Chris Wallace asked Donald Trump for clarification on one issue: concession. He asked if, after complaining about a “rigged election,” Trump would be able to accept the results of the election no matter which way things go.
Although his vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence said that they “would absolutely” accept the outcome of the November 8th election, Trump held Wallace off. He said that he would make that decision when he saw the results, promising “to keep everyone in suspense.”
That was when Hillary Clinton spoke up:
Rest of article and video at LINK

Hillary Clinton Just Kickstarted a Debate about 'Dozens of Toddlers' Who Kill People with Guns

Getty - Chip Somodevilla
As the final presidential debate began in Las Vegas, moderator Chris Wallace opened with a question about the Supreme Court and interpretation of the Constitution.
Republican nominee Donald Trump centered his answer on the 2nd Amendment because, as he explained, “the 2nd Amendment is the one that is under siege.”

The 2nd Amendment is under siege. We need SCOTUS judges who will uphold the US Constitution. ~ Donald Trump
Wallace followed up by asking Clinton about her plans for defending the 2nd Amendment.

Wow, Chris Wallace actually mentioned Hillary saying "The Supreme Court is wrong on the 2nd Amendment" 
Jake Tapper Stuns Twitter by Dropping Results of CNN Focus Group on Last Night's Debate Winner
First, the 'shocking news.' A CNN focus group of 21 undecided voters said Donald Trump won Wednesday night's final presidential debate — by a margin of 10-5, with 6 undecided.
Rest of article and video at LINK