Friday, July 20, 2018

The Media Goes "Russia" Mad-The Voters Yawn



 Shakespeare that man for all seasons, even our politically crazed one, has the words for it “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” Sound and fury indeed as President Trump described it as “Trump derangement syndrome” reached new, mad heights during the president’s sojourn at NATO and with Putin in Helsinki.

Bizarre reactions to the Putin meeting ranged from Congressman Steve Cohen’s ambiguous tweet which some saw as a call for the armed forces to overthrow Trump’s government “Where are our military folks ? The Commander in Chief is in the hands of our enemy!” James Comey  appearing to call on the citizenry to handle the overthrow Patriots need to stand up and reject the behavior of this president.”

The Media, NeverTrumpers, disgruntled soon to be ex-GOP senators, Democratic Party leaders, raged and spluttered 24/7 that, at the very least, Putin had embarrassed America, Trump had kowtowed to the most evil man who ever lived to, Trump is a sleeper agent of Russia (and, incredibly, Putin is a sleeper agent of the C.I.A. such is the madness among us).

The voters, as measured by a series of opinion polls including daily tracking polls that would capture every expected massive drop in Trump’s approval under this onslaught (“is this the final straw when even his hard-core supporters finally desert him”? Ran the meme) apparently looked, when they weren’t getting over the World Cup and enjoying their employment opportunities, and yawned. 

From July 11th  the start of the madness at NATO “Trump is destroying our allies and cozying up to dictators” Real Clear Politics had Trump’s approval at 43.1% Disapproval 53.4% after all the Sturm und Drang had, for the most part settled down (of course the MSM’s attacks never end they just ebb and flow) on July 19th it was at 43.3% Approval and 52.6% Disapproval so approval for Trump actually ticked up a bit across all polls.

Over at Nate Silver’s 538.Com his aggregator which uses some polls RCP excludes we see July 11th Trump Approval 42.3% Disapproval 52.7%  July 19th Approval  41.8% Disapproval 52.8% effectively the slightest of movement over a period of supposed dramatic game changing developments.

Individual polls showed larger shifts e.g Rasmussen dropped from 49% Approval to 45% then back up to 46%,YouGov from 43% to 39% then back up to 42% over three two day polling periods but these are just normal “noise.”  Why then would such breathless, often bizarre and yes, even crazed media attacks have such little apparent influence on the public?


Firstly the sad lesson for the media is that they have little influence over the public anymore as the fact of Trump getting one newspaper endorsement in 2016 showed. The MSM has morphed into being a repository for partisanship with each outlet carving out its niche to which it caters blatantly. Nobody, surely, now expects to get unfiltered “news” from the networks anymore and minds that are made up for or against Trump will stay just that.

However in the real world where jobs, wages and the normal factors of day to day life impact voters’ well things look entirely different to the drama of the media. In a new Axios Poll of 2100 voters “which of the following issues affects you the most right now?”  Jobs and the economy ranked number one at 25% healthcare in second place at 19% immigration placed third at 17%. “Russia” “Mueller” appeared to have no concerns whatsoever unless buried among “foreign policy” at 7%.

Trumps approval stood at 45% down just 1 point from the previous poll taken through the brouhaha of NATO/Putin. What further stands out, perhaps a continuation of the warning signals set out in The Federalist is the politically stunning approval of Trump among Blacks (22%) and Hispanics (38%) in the same survey. 

If these figures actually turn into voting patterns the industrial Midwest will be solid red for the foreseeable future. Perhaps the recognition of this by the Dem strategists (and its ignoring by the MSM) explains the desperate partisan rage.

That these figures are tied to the fact of the lowest Black unemployment since records were kept and a near similar record for Hispanics in an economy growing for all show that “It’s the economy stupid” is still the main driver of voting sentiments and the media hysteria is just a source of page clicks from the, often sadly, TDS possessed.


Saturday, July 7, 2018

Recent Published Writings 2017-2018

If links don't connect cut and paste;
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"The Federalist" September 13 2017

The Virginia Governor’s Race May Decide The 2020 Presidential Election

http://thefederalist.com/2017/09/13/virginia-governors-race-may-decide-2020-presidential-election/


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 "The Other McCain" January 1 2018

Sheppard’s Long Night’s Journey




______________________________________________________________________

"American Greatness"March 8th 2018 

Written in conjunction with Larry Schweikart

"Trump is Reviving American Republicanism"

https://amgreatness.com/author/michael-sheppard/


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"American Greatness" March 16 2018

Biggest Loser in Pennsylvania? Polling

https://amgreatness.com/2018/03/16/biggest-loser-in-pennsylvania-polling/


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"The Federalist" May 11 2018 

Black Support For Trump Is Rising Into The Danger Zone For Democrats

http://thefederalist.com/2018/05/11/black-support-trump-rising-danger-zone-democrats/

Thursday, April 26, 2018

Reform, Orthodox, Atheist-You Can Be Any Sort Of Jew Except A Democratic Party One





Keith Ellison the DNC's Deputy Chair as street salesperson for Farrakhan's Nation of Islam newspaper



For a religion with a tiny 6.4 million adherents, or “identifiers”,  just 2.1% of America’s population America’s Jews have managed to split themselves into (at least) ten different groupings or “branches.” Anyone with even a passing understanding of Jewish cultural tradition (or being part of a large Jewish family) and in particular the Yeshiva school system of adversarial argument would be surprised at only ten branches.

And yes, “Jewish Atheist” fits right in with this mishegoss, a quick Google search will turn up “Why I’m a Ranting Atheist…And a Jew” among many similar. This division, down to splinter of splinters in the Marxist strata carries over into politics of course, how could it not? Conservative Jews will be found, especially in the neo-conservative ranks among the Kristol, Frum Brooks contingent, a scattering among the new Trumpian GOP and of course the Socialist rebirth with Senator Sanders.

On the traditional left the Democratic Party saw its huge Jewish adherence during the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt. The appeal of reform, government intervention in the economy, opposition to Hitler and a perceived path out of poverty saw 90% of Jewish voters cast their ballots for FDR in 1940 when just a generation previously 45% had supported the Republican Charles Evans Hughes against Woodrow Wilson in 1916.

Since 1952 Jewish support for the GOP has been as high as 36% (Reagan) and as low as 9% (Goldwater whose ancestry was Jewish). In recent elections there has been a decline in Democratic support, from 75% for Obama in 2008 to 68% for Hillary Clinton. Trump received 26% (same as Romney) three points more than McCain.

 These voting shifts among 2-4% of the voting population would be of little note, especially with such a concentration in safe Democratic states but in the real world the Jewish voter, or more importantly the opinions and influence of  the Jewish media person is of great significance.
In an analysis of leftist Ezra Klein’s Obama 2008 candidacy support “JournOlist” group, of the 151 members a striking number of well know names are Jews. Dana Milbank advised then candidate Trump; “gai kaken oifen yam” (go defecate in the ocean). Nothing has changed since then among the various high profile Jewish pundits except now the y are joined by Republican “NeverTumpers” like Podhortz, Ben Shapiro etc.

That was until Jews in media, of whatever  tradition or sect and frankly in the Democratic Party, are faced with not just a political question, not just a moral one, but an existential one that strikes at the core of Jewishness in a “it can’t happen here” way. In fact not only can it happen here in America but the enemy is at the gate and Jake Tapper is sounding the alarm feverishly.
Quite simply the Democratic Party has as its Vice-Chair a former member of  the rabidly anti-Semitic Louis Farrakhan’s “Nation of Islam”

Farrakhan has been back in the news with a fiery, anti-Semitic speech on Feb. 25 that included a knock on Ellison for having distanced himself from the group when he ran for Congress. “Let me tell you something, when you want something in this world, the Jew holds the door,” Farrakhan said. During his speech, he displayed a photo of Ellison selling the Nation of Islam newspaper in 1998 Ellison, implied he had had no association with Farrakhan since 2006. His spokesman flatly said he had “no additional involvement.” But new evidence suggests these statements are false.”
Jake Tapper has  issued Tweet after Tweet highlighting this issue, among many are these ;”DC Councilman Trayon White Sr. (D. Ward 8) responded to a brief snowfall by publishing a video in which he espoused the conspiracy theory that Jews control the weather.” And “The Nation of Islam preaches the theology of innate black superiority over whites and the deeply racist anti-Semitic rhetoric of its leaders…”

The Republican’s have, rightly, and in the face of being accused of being anti-black (which the issue is patently not) have raised their concerns. Members of the Congressional Black Caucus and Women’s March co-President Tamika D. Mallory have come under fire this month for failing to condemn Louis Farrakhan after revelations that they met with or appeared at events with the notorious anti-Semite.

The Republican Jewish Coalition has called on eight black lawmakers to resign over their Farrakhan association. Not all have commented, but those doing so have been careful to denounce anti-Semitism without condemning the Nation of Islam leader himself.”
“One veteran CBC member, Illinois Rep. Danny Davis, praised and defended Farrakhan in a phone interview with The DC. Davis described Farrakhan as “an outstanding human being.”

In the campaign of his life seven term Chicago Democratic Congressman Dan Lipinski won the narrowest of  primary victories against his “progressive” challenger Marie Newman on March 20th by just over 2000 votes.

“A weird feature about this race? Jews keep coming up in a primary in a district comprising parts of Chicago and its suburbs where there are virtually no Jews.Still, the primary is another indication that when the Democratic left and the Democratic establishment do battle, Israel inevitably comes up.
So why does the Jewish issue keep coming up?

Lipinski’s opponent,  marketing executive and political neophyte Marie Newman, is seen as the more progressive candidate. She is pro-choice, a champion of lesbian, gay and transgender rights, and a supporter of universal health care.More recently, Arab-American voters in the district have asserted themselves. Newman wooed them in a web ad that initially ran 3 minutes, 25 seconds.
 Much of the ad refers to past controversies including efforts to block the establishment of a mosque in the district and includes footage of Arab-American shops and businesses.

The campaign has excised eight seconds from the ad, including a segment calling out Lipinski for supporting a law that would criminalize some kinds of support for the movement to boycott Israel. Also altered: A supporter says of Newman: “She doesn’t pander to special interest groups, like AIPAC.” The last two words are cut from the version currently online.That led Bob Asher, a former president of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, to blast out a fundraising email for Lipinski urging the maximum $2,700 donation.”

Surely this must go beyond a tocsin to the breaking point for anyone of Jewish descent. It is one thing for a Democratic Party caucus to make a stand of non-condemnation but quite another for the leadership of the party to accept Ellison and his equivocal past, and a caucus adamant in their non-condemnation.

With the Democratic Party and the media, if the GOP had caucus members who met with and refused to condemn the Klu Klux Klan and it’s Deputy Chair was a former KKK activist whose background is still in question, one cannot imagine the headlines and endless media coverage. The hypocrisy is rank.

For Jews to vote for and remain in a party that stands aloof from the sort of language that was used in 1930’s Germany is a terrible head in the sand position. To allow anti-Trump vehemence to cloud their judgement of the verdict of history is the sorrow and the pity writ large once again.
In the campaign of his life seven term Chicago Democratic Congressman Dan Lipinski won the narrowest of  primary victories against his “progressive” challenger Marie Newman on March 20th by just over 2000 votes.


Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Tax Cuts The Day After; Dem's Just Made Massive Mistake As Corporate America Passes On Huge Bonuses To Staff

 Nancy Pelosi, bless her heart, tried her best at a rant worthy of Pravda circa 1957:

"Nancy Pelosi: GOP Tax Plan Is "Simply Theft," Unrepentant Greed Of "Permanent Plutocracy" Is A Moral Obscenity"

Rep; Steve Israel "The GOP Just Bet Their Majority on a Tax Bill No One Likes"  

What no MSM/Dem's foresaw; Corporate America passing on their Trump tax cuts to employees. This on top of their direct tax cuts to come early next year.

Here is the immediate result of the "plutocrats" in action;



AT&T; Following tax reform passage AT&T said that it would give more than 200,000 U.S. union members a special bonus of $1,000

Wells Fargo & Company  said it would raise the minimum wage for its team members to $15 per hour and earmark $400 million for philanthropic initiatives in 2018. Some $100 million of that total will be committed to boosting small businesses, while $75 million will support neighborhood revitalization efforts.

Comcast The Philadelphia-based telecom corporation said it would award $1,000 bonuses to more than 100,000 non-executive employees. In addition, Comcast NBC Universal Chairman and CEO Brian L. Roberts said the company plans to spend more than $50 billion in the next five years on infrastructure investments that are expected to create "thousands of new direct and indirect jobs."
In a press release, Comcast said the initiatives were "based on the passage of tax reform and the FCC's action on broadband."

 
Thus, in the immediate reaction, 313,000 employees, "union employees" being given a $1000 bonus each and at least 13,500 having their minimum wage raise to $15 per hour. And there's more;


Boeing;The aerospace and defense company immediately announced $300 million in investments after the bill passed, with $100 million toward corporate giving including employee gift-match programs, $100 million toward workforce development, training and education and $100 million toward enhancing Boeing’s workplaces.


Every single Democratic Congressman, in the House and Senate voted against this happening.All the Democratic Party leadership's anti-Trump/tax cuts was destroyed within hours of the bill passing.
All the pundit's messaging that the 2018 mid-terms "will be a disaster for the GOP" is out the window.





 

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

The Top Ten Takeaways From the Alabama Election




1.President Trump's instincts, in supporting Luther Strange, were absolutely right. He had no choice, to defend his senate majority, but to endorse Moore. President Obama suffered massive Congressional defeats but still enacted his progressive agenda via his “pen and phone.” He was of course re-elected so 2020 is not a given for the Dem’s either.

2. The Dem's won with filthiest election tactics and masses of out of state money. The seat is of course on loan but the GOP’s senate majority is now infinitesimal with Collins/Flake/McCain etc.  holding the party hostage.

3. Well the MSM "If Dem's lose they will win, if Moore wins GOP will lose" now has to be rewritten “Dem's win and lose GOP loses and wins."

4. All those "progressives'” @wonkette @dailykos etc who call Alabamans "buck toothed inbred morons" now find they deeply love their fellow Americans from wonderful Alabama

5. The political atmosphere can't change because the entire MSM is dedicated to bringing down Trump. This is a war to the finish with no holds barred. The base must Fight fight and fight again

6. Hopefully Jones win will encourage Hillary to revenge herself for the 2016 stolen election and run again in 2020

7. @foxnewspoll "Jones +10" must be the stupidest last minute poll ever run, Fox Polling Zero credibility from now on. The entire polling industry failed yet again. Not a single poll had Jones winning except Fox which spoiled their prediction by making Jones potential win a ludicrous figure.

 8. Steve Bannon is done. Out of the administration and will never be sought for advice, and his endorsements will not be sought either. Sarah Palin lives to fight another day. Although she endorsed Moore early she did not campaign for him once the mass of harassment attacks commenced.
 
9. Black women Dem's having a field day "We are the heart of the base we have the power etc. This is most certainly true and may affect 2020 in Florida/North Carolina but Black vote which was  at its height in Pennsylvania can still see the GOP win the state and the Electoral College with massive Republican turnout in rural areas.

10. The GOP Establishment from McConnell to, Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, who refused to support Moore and put the GOP’s agenda in great peril, were instrumental in Moore’s loss. The day of reckoning is coming either for the Establishment or the base.


Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Under The Radar A Disastrous Poll for Dem's (A Wave Is Not a'Comin')


The Cook Report's Amy Walter produced a breathless article "A Wave Is a Comin' setting out how current polling shows the strong possibility of the Dem's retaking the House in the 2018 mid-terms

"This week, we’ve seen two polls — one by Quinnipiac and one by Marist — that show Democrats with a congressional ballot advantage of +13 to +15 is that kind of margin even big enough to net 24 seats to surf into the majority? The short answer: they need to see a generic ballot advantage of +8 or more, which roughly translates to getting at least 54 percent or more of the national House vote in 2018."
 
Walters then advises that on top of the Dem's polling advantage;

 "Getting a tax bill across the finish line isn’t going to be enough to change the mood of the country. A good economy is helpful to the GOP as it can cut down on some of the headwinds coming at them right now. But, it’s not clear to me that it’s enough to fundamentally alter the way voters see Congress, the GOP and the President.  But, there is precedent for Democrats winning the House vote by double digits in mid-term years."
 
The precedent is of course the fact that in the absolute majority of cases the mid-terms go against the party that has won the presidency prior to the mid-terms.

"Opposition parties, by contrast, find the odds forever in their favor. In the last 20 midterm elections, the president’s party has picked up seats only twice: in 2002, when Republicans gained eight right after 9/11, and in 1998, when Democrats gained five thanks to House Republicans’ obsession with impeachment."
 
All that being said however gaining seats and winning a majority are two different things altogether;

"In the last 60 years, control of the U.S. House of Representatives has changed hands just three times, always in midterm elections"
 
Another rule of punditry, perhaps one of the few to survive the disastrous prediction of 2015/6 is "a week in politics is a long time." 
 
Walters herself was not immune to this history of punditry failure by her own admission that she got the 2006 mid-terms and Trump wrong (she was not alone, her boss Charlie Cook consistently underestimated Trump "his ceiling is 19%)
Just after her Cook Report analysis this poll (page 8) appeared

2018 Generic Congressional Vote   NPR/PBS/Marist     Democrats 43, Republicans 40     Democrats +3

How does that relate to the possibility of Nancy Pelosi receiving the Speakers gavel from Paul Ryan? Not very well according to Nate Silver's view, written when the Democrat's had a 7 point Congressional vote lead  in June, of what is required for the handover.

"
The true margin of error for generic ballot polls is about +/- 5 percentage points, even for those done at the end of the campaign. So that 7-point advantage we see for the Democrats could indicate a national House win of only 2 points, which would fall far short of what the Democrats need to regain control of the chamber. (Or Democrats could win by as many as 12 points.)
 
 In the end, a final generic-ballot average showing the Democrats up 7 points would suggest that they’d be about a 50-50 proposition to take back the House."
 
Both Walter and Silver equivocate, as would be expected after the disastrous punditry before Trump's election, advising, rightly, that events can markedly change the picture as we get closer to the elections.

However, taking Silver's advice of a +/- 5 percentage point margin of error, the NPR/PBSMarist poll shows the GOP could actually increase their control of the House. 
 
But the historical reality leans to a swing against the Republicans. Even so it would have to be at the absolute top of the polls margin in favor of the Dem's  (+8) and even then the chances of a turnover are 50/50.
Walters concluded; "But, do not ignore what’s right in front of us. A wave is building."

Perhaps so, but the wave may be in the opposite direction to what Walters/Cook perceive. So many have made the mistake of underestimating Trump and the tsunami of 2016 may yet have some further surge power.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Hillary; The Sorrow And The Pity; "Depart In The Name of God Go"


It's like watching the end career Whitney Houston stumbling through 'I will always love you' or tragic Muhammad Ali in the early stages of Parkinson's versus Larry Holmes when Larry backed off in pity and Ali sat, head bowed, on his stool unable to continue.

It's sad to watch the descent of a fellow human being no matter how hideous they were in their prime. But now it's time to turn eyes away. I've reached a point where anger has now turned to a genuine sadness for, yes I'll say, it Hillary Clinton (and similarly the tragic stick figure of Kathy Griffin).
 
Watching Hillary hobble in a moon boot, flogging books in Walmart, railing endlessly about a stolen election "a dictatorship" if there is a hint of legal action against her, while her erstwhile defenders in the liberal media turn on her and Bill, would have previously brought emotions of glee, exhilaration and notions of "karma" but, frankly, all that arises are feelings of not caring at all.
 
Colleagues round on me with exhortations about her long career of various degrees of purported malfeasance, lying, enabling, rages, money grubbing and worse in fact the endless gamut of charges conservatives have railed about  for decades and of course they have a point. It is perfectly natural to seek political revenge against a hated figure who has stood in the way of ones partisan beliefs and electoral wins but I just don't have it in me anymore.
 
It may eventuate that Hillary has just commenced her decline and if what is being described as "The crime of the century" the uranium to Russia scandal with its purported pay to play Clinton involvement, actually entails malfeasance then even the most revengeful will at some point remove themselves from the ensuing denouement.
 
American political history has shown that the voters nearly always make the right presidential choice no matter how puzzling such choices are to the pundit class.

 
As each month passes from President Trump's election and unemployment reaches lows never seen in state after state, consumer confidence rebounds, blue collar wages show a sharp increase and the share market booms.
 
 
Hillary thus becomes more and more an afterthought as Trump voters are justified in their choice-most especially in the "rust belt' states where Trump overcame massive Democratic majorities and whose voters are being repaid for their faith in his MAGA promises.


Hillary's seeming pathetic end game role is to be thrown under the bus by erstwhile colleagues Like Donna Brazile, the 'Morning Joe team who, after decades now have seen the light that Bill (and by implication Hillary) where not the shining lights the left held them up to be and a whipping girl for radical feminist frustration;
 

"Hollywood celebrities, liberal journalists and Democrat politicians are being destroyed by this feminist war of vengeance, and why? Because Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, that’s why." 
   
Oliver Cromwell's exhortation to the similarly sad, well past its use by date and functionless Rump Parliament
"
You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"
 

Might, with unexpected but needed introspection (and perhaps intervention by well meaning friends) commend itself to Hillary, in the end if not for her possibly incorrigible sake, then for ours.