Friday, September 30, 2016

Two Days Post Debate Trump Rises To 5.6 Lead USC/LATimes Poll

The respected USC/LATimes Poll now two days post debate  and 2 of the 7 days compiled including the two days post debate has Trump showing a sharp rise to a substantial 5.6 point lead
TRUMP 47.3% CLINTON 41.7%

After an initial one day post debate rise Trump plateaued and Hillary rose slightly but this latest 09/29 poll has Trump rising again by 0.6 and Hillary with a significant drop of 1.2 points.

Nate Silver the indefatigable Dem supporter advised;

If USC/LATimes/Rasmussen/PPD and others are concerned Silver's bias will, once again lead him astray where Trump is concerned.

This is why Trump has risen-ordinary folks are fed up with the MSM/Establishment elites disdain. His lead in this category is a massive 20 points 55% to 33% and rising sharply post-debate where Hillary was the epitome of the arrogant elite.

Further analysis of the poll from
Techno at C4P

Thursday, September 29, 2016

The Debate;Sound And Fury Signifying-No Change?Two Days Of Polls Show Slight Move To Trump

For all the massive media beat-up the huge viewing audience and the post debate pontification, mostly by the pro-Hillary media who determined, based o one grossly distorted CNN poll, that Hillary "won" the quality polls show just a slight uptick for Trump.

It may well be that people have for the most part determined who they will support and nothing, short of Hillary having keeled over or Trump having blown his top, would have changed things as they stood prior to the debate.

Certainly the partisans voiced their opinions that their manor woman wiped the floor with the other but that has no bearing on the wider reality.

The first USC/LATimes showed about a half point uptick for Trump which put him around +4 where he has been hovering for weeks with his long term average about +2.2. Day two saw Trump stay at his same percentage as day one with Clinton "gaining" 0.3 of a point.

the poll by the Dem leaning firm PPP Polling has Clinton at +4 which i actually one point lower than the +5 she was weeks ago. A couple of post debate state polls from Michigan and Missouri showed small movement to Trump and one from Louisiana showed movement to Clinton but nothing outside the usual poll ups and downs.

There were some larger shifts but they were from polls from obscure outfits or ones that Real Clear Politics doesn't recognize so can be discounted.

Unless subsequent polling from reputable firms shows substantial movement for either candidate over the next few days the debate will have proven to be a wash in respect of any"game changer" drama and things will be as they were before with the battle in the few key marginal states determining who will be elected in November.

This is the Post debate USC/LaTimes graph.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Tracking Polls Update 09/27; Trump Has Lead For 19 Straight Days/Slight Post-Debate Rise

Now that UPI/C has updated their tracking data we can get a clearer picture of the head to head Trump/Clinton race.

Trump has lead for 19 consecutive days with the UPI/c poll leaning to Clinton and the USC/LATimes poll leaning to Trump with PPD mirroring USC poll but with a slightly less Trump lean.

This is what aggregation is all about and, according to experts, is the best measure of analyzing polls.

The aggregate lead for Trump over the last 19 days is +2.2 points. The first post debate polls shows a slight lift for Trump but a better measure will be apparent over the next days as the pre-debate respondents are winnowed out.

First Post Debate Poll And It's Sensational For Trump +4.1

So called "guru" Nate Silver Tweeted "Hillary won the debate and it's likely her polls will rise"

He also claimed that Hillary's win was based on the CNN poll result. He didn't advise that the CNN poll was hugely distorted to favor Democrat voters and that thirteen post debate polls showed a clear win for Trump.

The CNN poll claiming Hillary won the debate sampled 41% Democrats and only 26% Republicans. Always check polling samples and assume bias.

The respected USC/LATimes tracking poll which is included in the Real Clear Politics aggregate of acceptable polls  closed the day before the debate 09/16/17 with Trump leading Clinton by 3.5 points at 46.2% to  42.7%

Their first poll after the debate 09/27/16  shows Trump 46.7 %  and Clinton  42.6%  Trump 4.1% lead.

This is just the first indication as the poll includes votes from earlier in the week but the trendline is clear in it's implications 

Biggest jump in Trump's post debate support was among Blacks and all people aged 18-34

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Trump's Debate Ticked All the Boxes For Him

Trump did just fine.

He was forceful enough when needed and the forcefulness was manifestly justified in relation to Hillary's answers and especially her rebuttal. That is he was perceived as not flying off the handle even when he was being unfairly quoted/attacked.

Trump was manifestly in control of his statistics and major points without giving the impression of a stilted rehearsed set of answers.

Trump stayed true to his base on climate control,guns and law and order when he might have compromised or watered down these elements in a (mistaken) attempt to broaden his support, which would not have happened and which woudl have led to a substantial loss of support and justifiable cries of hypocrisy.

Trump didn't take the bait from Hillary when she goaded him on women's issues whilst hinting at dark events relating to the Clinton's he said he woudl hold his tongue-well done.

Trump showed a firm but fair temperament which was an absolute must for him.

In the end however the crisis of the middle class, race-relations in crisis,the mess in the mid-east/ISIS and America carrying an unfair share of world peacekeeping whilst being subjected to unfair trade practices and the disaster of FTA were all matters Hillary could not justify and make rational the promise to clean them up after eight years of causing them.

With immigration up next, surely, and this one under his belt, Trump can only move into a commanding position.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Outer Limits Of Trump Electoral College Blowout Takes Shape

Head to head polls, which lag the tracking polls are showing the Trump/Clinton race at a near tie while the tracking polls consistently have Trump ahead in the aggregate for 22 straight days.

The state polls which trail both the head to head and the tracking polls have had Trump close an enormous gap in the Electoral college, which is what counts in the end, to the point where he is one state from being above the 270 votes required to be elected. 

If current polling trends continue, where Trump leads in a number of the key contested states in the aggregate i.e Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and one CD district in Maine, and leads in current polls in North Carolina, then the prospect of a Trump blow-out comes into view for the first time. 

Here is the Real Clear Politics analysis of the electoral College situation as of today based on current latest polling which shows a Clinton 272 to Trump 266 split (270 being the winning number) and again it only takes one further state to fall into Trump's column for him to win.

New polling from Pennsylvania puts Trump within two of Clinton and he is within or just outside the margin of error (MOE) in Wisconsin, Colorado (where he leads in one poll) and Michigan in some older polls. 

If these four states move into Trump's column his realistic Electoral College number would be a massive 323 to 215 margin. 

New Hampshire is currently significantly outside the MOE but if Trump's trending accelerates it is conceivable that the states 4 votes as well as two further from Maine (Clinton would win the states 4th vote) would stretch Trump's margin to 327 to 211 almost equal to President Obama's 332 to 206 against Romney in 2012.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Nate Cohn "Nobody Could Reasonably Have Anticipated Trump's Victory" (Except These 7 For Starters)

New York Times leftist "pundit' Nate Cohn wrote regarding Donald Trump's nomination that it 

"came together in unexpected ways to produce a result that no one could have reasonably anticipated?"

He wrote this is a long somewhat explanatory column about his predictive failures "What I got wrong about Donald Trump

Typically the emphasis was not so much on Cohn's individual failure but on the collective "we" with one "I" emphasis;

"We will never know just how wrong we were about Donald Trump"

It is unfair to all those who actually did predict Trump's triumph (linked below) to let Cohn's universal "nobody" pass by uncorrected. Here are just some of those who were not blinded by leftist bias. Most certainly Governor Sarah Palin who was the first major endorser of Trump, and yours truly who blogged for Trump from the start can be added to the list.

Video;Rep. Keith Ellison Predicts Trump as Nominee In July 2015; Panel Laughs Hysterically

As Trump Coasts to the Nomination, Remember That the Cartoonist Behind Dilbert Saw It All Coming.

Scott Adams also predicts Trump will beat Hillary Clinton in "a landslide."


Michael Moore Predicts Donald Trump Will ‘Absolutely’ Win GOP Nomination


Last year, I predicted the GOP would nominate Trump" 


Man Who Predicted Trump Would Win the GOP Nomination

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Palin;Living In Obama's "Hopey Changey" Head Since 2010

First report of Governor Palin's "Hopey Changey" comment about President Obama
read the full article at  LINK) From February 2010!

And seven year s and seven months later President Obama references it-clearly she's living in his head

And Governor Palin's witty response;(From C4P LINK)

Governor @SarahPalinUSA’s "Hopey Changey" Mocking Of @BarackObama Still Works