Monday, March 14, 2022

Analysis of 26 Current Polling Shows Shift From Aggregate D+7 In 2020 To D+2

 In June 2020 I did a comprehensive, ground breaking analysis of all available polls from Real Clear Politics and Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.

The result were staggering, the aggregate, which included a few low bias polls,  to the Democratic Party was +7.6 with some polls being as high a D+13!

After the pollster humiliating disasters  in 2016 and 2020 the message appears to have sunk in that if they continued with their obvious biased polling they would lose what little credibility they had left. Thus there has been a noticeable shift in a more balanced polling since the 2020 election.

For example Quinnipiac, which used the be at the forefront of some preposterous Dem leaning polls, has now become one of the most conservative pollster usually reporting President Biden's approval numbers well below even the Republican orientated polls.

The fact that prior to 2021 most such polling outfits had their "weightings" wrong i.e. they failed to include enough rural voters, the propensity for Republicans not to participate in polls in their analysis and didn't allow for the Republican turnout differential. Given the marked drop in polls giving Biden a substantial higher rating over Rasmussen/Trafalgar (both of which have been "upgraded" in their respective ratings by FiveThirtyEight it appears these lessons have been taken on board to one degree or another.

I have done a further comprehensive analysis of  26 available pollsters and the bias difference is remarkable, From D+7 to now D+2 (rounded and including consensus) a shift of 5 points and now near exact the CNN exit poll result from 2020

I have, as previously, included links to every poll that includes their Dem/Rep/Ind demographics. Unfortunately a small number, some with high profiles, do not indicate such data or "hide" it in their questionnaires. Where such obscured data is available I have indicted that the ratio are the result of outside, assisted, analysis but the data is still linked.

Here are the most current polls with their demographics, Dem or GOP lean, and their poll links. Any errors of tabulation would be minor and given the large sample would have minimal affect of the aggregate of all polls. It may be necessary to cut and paste some links, all links are active as of this writing.

 For reference;

"CNN's 2020 exit poll data indicates voter party splits at Dems 37%, GOP 36% & Unaffiliated Voters at 27% D+1"

NPR/PBS/Marist D+6       33/27/38   RV


Tarrance Group  RV Even

30% Rep, 40% Ind, 30%


McLaughlin D+1   LV



Reuters/IPSOS D+7     46/39/15    AV

Reuters/IPSOS D+8.8

D+8.8    The Reuters/Ipsos poll is conducted online in English throughout the United States. The latest poll gathered responses from 1,005 adults in total including 439 Democrats and 351 Republicans. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 4 percentage points.


Rasmussen D+2    LV    

D35, R33, IND32


IBD/TIPP   Not Available 2020; 

  2020 (Not Included)

IBD: 1413 Registered Voters weighted D40, R30, Ind30 - 


CBS D+6  AV (Consensus analysis)

35.9/29.6/34.4  D/R/I

"The breakdown for each question reveals the answer: 52.3/47.7 Biden v Trump (665/606, so way less than overall sample, and slight Biden oversample) and 35.9D/29.6R/34.4I (701/578/672 - most of the sample). D+6.3 seems overweighted D.

Based on


SELZER/GRINNELL   AV      Even           34/34/27/5


 SCR The Hill        R+3    LV

·       Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?








Some other political party




Economist/YouGov  Economist/YouGov  D+3   38/35/21  AV

 Quinnipiac         RV   N/A

 Harvard/Harris D+2    38/36/24/2      RV         




Democrat Republican Independent Other (vol.) No opinion

 27/26/ 40/ 4/ 3


Associated Press NORC  D+8



FOX NEWS  Varies between D+5 and GOP +3 Aggregate D+0.2    RV


 EMERSON   D+1.5              37.4/35.9/26.7               RV



USA TODAY/SUFFOLK     D+1.8    32.7 /30.9/31.5   RV



 POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT                  D+6     40/34/36      RV    


GALLUP  D+3   RV   29/27/42      AV


TRAFALGAR    D +3.7     39.3/35.6/25.1                    LV


 FEDERALIST/SUSQUEHANA   R+2     39/41/15     LV


 CNN  R+1     30/31/39         RV


MONMOUTH   R+5       26/31/33     January 2020             RV

March 2022 +1        29% Republican 43% Independent 28% Democrat RV




 THE HILL HARRIS X    D+1              37/36/25     RV


NBC NEWS  41/39/13/7   D+2            RV



 Bullfinch Group D+1        31/30/38/1  RV



 WALL STREET JOURNAL D+2  Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research 

            42/40/13/5               RV


Not Included

Jan 20, 2021

Pew: 4040 "2020 Voters" weighted D57, R39, Ind4 - 


News Nation Decision Desk R+2.84

 PEW POLL  D+8.8   AV

"Orig. poll show 47.7% R, 49.9% D & assume 2.3% Ind. But weighted to 42% R & 51% D.