Saturday, March 20, 2010

PPP Poll Indicates Palin Can Have The Nomination If She Wants It

The latest PPP poll of Republicans gives the following result
Romney 28%
Huckabee 24%
Palin 23%
Ron Paul 11%
Undecided 9%

It is perfectly logical that if Huckabee does not run-which at this point seems likely-the bulk of his support would go to Palin.He is an evangelical like her and shares many of the same values. Should Huckabee endorse his fellow Fox commentator then it is likely the absolute majority of his support would go to her.

It is well known that there is little love lost between Huckabee and Romney so it is very unlikely that Huckabee would endorse Romney.

It is also unlikely that Ron Paul would be a serious candidate for the G.O.P nomination. Palin’s endorsement of his son Rand Paul for Senator from Kentucky illustrates that Palin and Paul share some degree of similarity of views. As with Huckabee if Paul is going to endorse a candidate it is more likely to be Palin than Romney especially with Palin having supported Rand Paul.

Given that Huckabee and Paul don't seek the nomination and the bulk of their support, especially with an endorsement, goes to Palin and the 9% undecided goes to her to any degree, she would be comfortably over the 50% mark of voter support.

Significantly, Palin polled as most popular with 69% viewing her favorably compared to Romney's 57% and Huckabee's 54% favorability rating.

The primary campaigns come in to play at this point and might negate the level of party members support if things play out for Romney delegate wise. For example if he had a strong run from New Hampshire to Florida (his strong polling there is surprising given the rapturous reception Palin got in the 2008 election and her recent book tour ) to Texas and picked up the bulk of all of the New York and California delegates in winner take all elections.

It is also surprising that Texas should poll so well for Romney given Palin's strong support for Governor Perry, her huge reception at the campaign rally, and Perry doing so well in the recent primary so further polls of that state will be interesting.If Palin can take it then with the bulk of the south, the southwest and midwest she should carry enough delegates to get the nomination.

Palin's address to the upcoming Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans (April 8-11) and the straw poll might be a vital clue to how she will fare going forwards especially as both Romney and Huckabee are not scheduled to address the conference.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Moderates Striking Swing To Palin In New Poll

Sarah Palin holds her second place position, three points closer, to Huckabee in the latest PPP poll of Republican voters in North Carolina. If, as seems likely, Huckabee chooses not to run in 2012 there would be little doubt that Palin would garner the bulk of his support and win the state handily. There are minor fluctuations amongst polled Women/Men and a 5% move from Palin to Undecided voters in the conservative category.

The striking result is amongst Moderates. There is a massive swing to Palin of 14%. It appears that 9% of this came from previous Moderates who were Huckabee supporters and 5% from previously undecided moderates. This is highly significant and if a trend is being established it is the first sign of the cut through of the new image of Presidential level gravitas Palin has exhibited in her recent run of speeches, and policy postings.

These, allied with her "humanizing" appearance on Leno, which showed moderates that she is intelligent and self deprecating (and which may have caused some hesitation amongst conservatives) will in due course be reflected in a steady upward climb in more polls. This will be the end result of a fed up country looking for a move to traditional values and the person who most personifies them.

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary

•Mike Huckabee 30% (33%)
•Sarah Palin 27% (27%)
•Mitt Romney 25% (25%)
•Undecided 17% (14%)

Among Men
•Mitt Romney 30% (24%)
•Mike Huckabee 29% (35%)
•Sarah Palin 25% (27%)
•Undecided 15% (14%)

Among Women
•Mike Huckabee 31% (30%)
•Sarah Palin 30% (29%)
•Mitt Romney 20% (27%)
•Undecided 19% (15%)

Among Conservatives
•Mike Huckabee 33% (34%)
•Sarah Palin 25% (30%)
•Mitt Romney 24% (24%)
•Undecided 18% (13%)

Among Moderates
•Sarah Palin 32% (18%)
•Mitt Romney 30% (30%)
•Mike Huckabee 23% (32%)
•Undecided 15% (20%)

Survey of 311 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 12-15, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Political ideology: 74% Conservative; 23% Moderate; 3% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2010 are in parentheses.

Monday, March 15, 2010

First Glimpse Of President Palin

During her address to the "Taking Our Country Back Tour" event in Tulsa Oklahoma Saturday we saw a new, striking, Sarah Palin. We have been used to the folksy, bright, sparkly and occasionally wickedly biting and wonderfully humorous speaking style that usually comprises a Palin speech- that night something new and dramatic happened.

In a standard Palin speech there are of course the serious policy elements but it is the style and the unique Palin cadence which have defined what we have come to know and expect a Palin speech to be like. This style has, too date,  helped to define Palin, for friend and foe alike, in the public's mind.

What was on display in Tulsa was a new and hugely important element. It is clearly shown in the part of the speech where Palin talks about taking back America. There is only one word that can be used to describe this new element-it is gravitas. Palin was serious in mien, serious in intent and, certainly for the first time I have seen, this seriousness was expressed in a voice which can only be described as Presidential.

This new voice was, seemingly deeper, flatter i.e. with little emotional rise and fall cadence, yet gripping. Its very solidity compelled the listener to listen and watch intently as the tone conveyed a subtle command that attention was required. There were clearly echoes of JFK in the overall impression her voice conveyed.

Palin has gone through tempering process which most people, even experienced politicians would falter under. That she has come through the forging fire stronger than ever was transmitted in the new voice. Compare the voice of Tulsa with her VP  nomination acceptance speech, which for its time and place was uniquely compelling, it is clear there is a new, take no nonsense person on the American stage.

We have heard in Tulsa for the first time something we as a nation will get used to, will come to respect and in the fullness of time, will love-the voice of a President.

An example of this new,strong and compelling confident voice of a leader is

here  (after the Glen Beck opening.)

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Poll Of Polls Now Shows Obama Disapproval Above Approval For 1st Time

The Pollster.Com polling aggregate shows President Obama now dipping below the unfavorable level for the first time.It is heading inexorably into Bush territory, but on a much faster rate that George W. achieved. This is what you get when an empty suit with no executive experience is catapulted into the White House by a slavish media.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Sullivan-Palin's Father "I Was In The Room When He (Trig) Was Born". Apology Please

Our friends at Texas4Palin have an article about an op-ed in Esquire from a person who knows Sarah Palin's family and recollected the following discussion he had with Sarah's dad  Chuck Heath.

"After listening again to the tape of his interview with Sarah's parents, Dittrich found another unreported detail:

Chuck had just told me that he usually didn't talk with reporters — that, in fact, he'd just hung up on one fifteen minutes before I'd arrived.

"The Anchorage Daily News is doing a story," he said. "Is Trig Really Sarah's Son?"
"I am so disgusted," Sally said.

Chuck shook his head.

"I was in the room when he was born, for Chrissakes!"

Sullivan has been at the forefront of the mad "Trig Truther brigade who put about the story that Trig is not Palin's son.He even concocted a scenario where Palin named Trig after the very condtion he has which is a terribly cruel thing to say to a mother.

Well Sullivan has two choices if he is a human being 1.To call Palin's dad a liar or 2. Apologize to the Palin family. If he ignores Mr. Heath's statement then he is a coward and has lost any remaining credibilty he might still have.

Lincoln And Palin One And The Same These Lincoln Day Celebrations

Sarah Palin is to address a, no doubt excited, audience at the Orange County Republican's annual Lincoln Day celebrations in Sarasota Florida March 12th. Florida turns out in huge numbers for Palin and the attendance and media interest should be substantial.Florida would be a key state for any Republican nomination in 2012 and if Palin chooses to run it would be important for her to build on her support in this vital state with the party establishment which this address would go a long way to achieving.

There might be an opportunity to meet up with Marco Rubio who would be a perfect running mate for Palin as Florida would be absolutely crucial to the Republican electoral chances in 2012. If, early on election night Florida goes to the Democrats then Republicans should turn off their TV sets. If Palin wins it then the recovery of the lost 2004 Bush states would be underway and she would have every chance of winning in the electoral college.

These Lincoln Day celebrations give an opportune time to look at what was said about Lincoln as he set about his run for the presidency.He, like Palin, was subject to endless lies, slander, invective, personal attacks about his looks and family. There is no need to catalogue the endless list of similar contumelies directed at Palin,it is all so tedious and dreary,childish, facile and ignorant.But it is instructive to have a brief look at what was said about Lincoln and to see the echoes with Palin.

From a New York newspaper "He is not known except as a slang-whanging stump speaker of which all parties are ashamed" and from another newspaper "They (the Republicans) pass over statesmen and able men and take up with a fourth rate lecturer who cannot speak good grammer (sic),and who, to raise the wind, delivers his hackneyed, illiterate compositions at $200 apiece" return for the most unmitigated trash, interlarded with coarse and clumsy jokes, he filled his empty pockets with dollars coined out of Republican fanatics." Where have we heard this lately-allowing for $200 in today's money !

Moving on to appearance, this from a Charleston newspaper. "Sooty and scoundrelly in aspect, a creature fit evidently for petty treason, small stratagems and all sorts of spoils.He is lank sided of the uncomeliest visage, and of the dirtiest complexion. And from Houston " The leanest lankest mass of arms and legs and hatchet face ever strung out on a single frame". And as for family "He  had a child he could not acknowledge which his wife knew all about which is why she was sometimes unstable"

The parallels are clear, the same sort fanatical oppostion to Lincoln is directed at Palin.One must conclude that greatness elicits an equal and opposite level of small mindedness. That the level of hate directed at Palin is at the same level as directed at Lincoln shows the true measure of her potential greatness once in office.

HillBuzz Does The Funniest One Liners On Romney

This from the clever and witty HillBuzz folks who I admire for their clear sightedness about Palin throughout all the mud slinging at her from left (and sadly ) right. I also agree with them 100% about Hillary and admire their same loyalty to Palin.

I also admire their sense of humor of which these Romney zingers are an illustration !

"Romney could hold a dozen nuns hostage at knife point in the middle of a crowded shopping mall and hardly anyone would notice. MAYBE the media would report on it, if a semi-famous rapper happened to be nearby, like with Romney’s recent altercation on an airplane.

Romney could set himself on fire and perform nude Cirque du Soleit acrobatics on live television and most of the country would still not pay any attention to him."

Go guys.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Sarah Palin And The Buddhist Busboy

I work three days a week for a charity which creates long-term development projects in third world countries by having children sponsored. It is hugely rewarding on so many levels. Seeing whole communities transformed through the provision of clean water, sanitation, schoolhouses, education in animal husbandry and crop optimization is a delight. Seeing the very real pleasure that sponsors get by communicating with their sponsored child and seeing the growth in opportunities for that child whilst the sponsors children have a pen pal to grow up with whilst learning valuable life lessons is an honor really.

I was a guest of some quite wealthy community leaders at a dinner function in a top quality Thai restaurant recently. Of course the conversation came round to my work and I advised of the various opportunities for support of our projects- they were receptive nothing came of these discussions.

A few days later I received an email from a young man who described himself as a Buddhist and a Thai immigrant who although poor wanted to do something for charity and world peace as part of his spiritual path. He thought our charity, which is well known for total honesty and the fact that 100% of dispersed aid money goes only to projects and is third party audited, would be the best for him to work with.

I suggested he come in so we could discuss what role he might play-possibly as a volunteer. He turned out to be a poor, slightly shy but earnest young man who is genuinely committed to charity amongst those overseas worse off than he is. He advised that he talked to the organizers of the forthcoming Thai National Day celebrations, which thousands will attend, and they agreed he could set up a fundraising stall so he is underway.

It turns out that this young man is a kitchen hand in the same Thai restaurant I dined in with the leading lights just a few days before and, whilst he has nothing and they everything, he will be the one to change lives amongst the poor.

I reflected how much this is like the current political scene is, where the established elites mock and ridicule Sarah Palin and the millions of ordinary folks who support her. It is these people, categorized as trailer park trash, hicks, ignoramuses, who are the heart and soul of America. Their generosity, no matter their personal circumstances is boundless. The American spirit in the maligned, by the east and west coast elite, “fly over country” is one of love of family, country and God.

These elites had their day in November 2008 and it has been downhill all the way ever since. The generous spirited poor, like the kitchen hand, have had enough (as the Tea party shows) and the anger-from Virginia to New Jersey to Massachusetts and in this November across the country will be the next step in taking America back. The final step will be the swearing in of an (extraordinary ordinary !) Christian patriot in 2012.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Time For Palin's Grand World Tour

One by one the leftist media's "Sarah Palin" who bears no resemblance in reality to the real Sarah Palin, is being whittled down and will shortly have no substance in the alternative reality they have fashioned for their Pygmalion (perhaps Golem might be a better description as the creature they have fashioned is mud splattered.)

A few perspicacious commentators on the left (tellingly not in the traditional MSM) have woken up to this fact and are putting out warning signals to the broader left that they too had better wake up and start dealing with the "Genius of Palin" as Jon Stewart describes her, or stand by and watch her sworn in in 2012.

It is nothing short of amazing-genius is indeed the only applicable word to describe it-that a person who was written off completely by the MSM when she resigned as Governor has, entirely by her own innate wisdom, incredible energy (Truman in 1948, also against all the odds, is an apt comparison) and political skills (so much for the McCain advisors who ridiculed her-where are they now?) become the highest profile politician in America after the President.

One by one the negative aspects the media have created for her have been destroyed. Dumb? Not this multi-million book sales author, spellbinding public speaker.

Not ready for the big time-avoiding the tough interviewers? The grillings by King/Wallace (I gave her as tough a time as I could)/Blitzer/ O'Reilly/Walters passed without negative comment on her grasp of issues. Vacuous beauty queen? Not the person who could hold an audience " in the palm of her hand" (and laugh at herself) on Conan/ Oprah (twice)/Leno.

Sensing the scales were falling from the public’s eyes the MSM and radical blogs shifted tack. Stupidly, instead of challenging what the public could clearly see is a person of intellect, they became even more shrill and vicious. A brief campaign of implying she was a racist by association fell flat when there was not the slightest evidence to back it up (and of course her mixed marriage basically insulates her against that slur).

Then came the attacks on her children, her marriage, and the latest (and most ludicrous) that she is now some sort of elitist, Hollywood money grubbing type divorced from the commonfolks she has risen above (whilst managing at the same time to be "trailer park trash"-quite a feat).

It's all so sad and so tawdry and thankfully is coming to an end. There is however one area which is open to valid criticism and that is Palin's lack of a substantial body of foreign experience at the level the public might expect in a candidate for higher office. She has addressed this to a degree with her speech to business people in Hong Kong and at a major rally in Canada where her special topic, energy, was canvassed. To this can be added her troop visits to Kosovo (where she met the Lithuanian Minister of Defense) and Iraq when Governor.

What would, I suggest, be helpful in filling this gap in her CV and removing one further impediment/MSM attack point, would be to arrange for a "grand tour" of the major European capitals in the not too distant future. There is a good base for this as Palin met with a number of world leaders at the U.N. during the 2008 campaign and some sort of follow up structure in Europe might be put in place. I have no doubt she would be received by huge crowds wherever she went and world leaders (Berlusconi particularly one would imagine) would no doubt appreciate the photo op.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Palin Leads Romney in Mormon State Poll

In the latest, presumed, Magellan poll of Republican voters, this time in Arizona, Sarah Palin has a one point lead over Mitt Romney. But a note of caution, Magellan is presumed-the site doesn't advise who did the polling and there are no crosstabs yet on this poll- but previous polls on the Republican Rankings blog have been from Magellan and the format looks similar.

This is significant poll as Arizona is one of the states in the "Mormon Corridor" that is states with a Mormon population above, sometimes significantly so, the usual population numbers. Arizona has a Mormon population of 6% the 5th highest in America.

One would assume that the overwhelming number of Arizona's Mormons would be Republican voters.That being the case for Palin to have any lead over Romney is highly significant and augers well for her for any future run at the G.O.P. nomination.

Interestingly this may be balanced out to a degree by Idaho which has a Mormon population of 14% but is Palin's birth state and will present an interesting battle .

Looking in detail at the Arizona results Palin has 28% Romney 27%/Huckabee 13%. If we presume that Huckabee will not run and the bulk of his supporters would go to Palin she would have a signficant lead in a two person race. Amongst conservative voters the split is 30/23/14. Romney has a signficant lead amongst self deemed moderate Republicans 32% to Palin's 18% and Huckabee's 17% but again, if we assume Huckabees supporters would go to Palin the two person split is about even.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Surprise! Palin Audience Finds Her "Neither Dope Nor Trigger Happy Hick"

A man who attended Sarah Palin's address at the BMO Centre in Calgary posted a blog report which he titled "An Uneventful Evening with Sarah Palin:" and commenced his report thusly;

"One thing can be put to rest: Sarah Palin is no more or less than what she appears to be. Earnest? Absolutely. Witty in her own way? Kind of. Folksy? You betcha. But she is neither the dope nor the trigger happy hick as portrayed by the largely liberal media in the U.S., and she makes good common sense on many fronts, especially in her suspicions of politicians — of any stripe".

He advises that he does not take the political positions necessarily that Palin does but it is clear he came away respecting her as a person. What this shows, and he clearly alludes to it, is that the U.S. left-wing liberal media have so distorted the real Palin through an unending cascade of vilification that they have created a she devil who bears no resemblance to the living person.

Cleary the blogger was taken aback to find the character was not as characterised. The end result of this will be the same sort of backlash that is hitting the Democratic party and Obama but in reverse.

The public have well woken up to the fact they were sold a bill of goods by the liberal media. The bill of lading should have been "One empty suit, only slightly used" (Caveat Emptor).

But it was packaged as "New, improved hope and change" Now that the public have found that the goods are not as labelled and they have to wait three years before being able to trade the model in they have reacted in the only way they can by dumping all products associated with the non-returnable one as soon as their use- by period expires (a mass dumping is coming in November).

As Palin is seen by more and more people and they find she is, as this gentleman finds,
(in fact he goes on to describe her, quite perspicaciously, as "comfortingly slightly boring") there will be a similar backlash against the MSM which has done all it can to try and fool the public about the real Palin

Finally The Left Starts To take Palin Seriously

After doing all they could to destroy the unique phenomenon that is Sarah Palin it appears that some on the thinking left have realized that she has taken all their best shots, is a powerful force in political life, and is not going away. Most certainly the rabid left, the mad 'Trig Truthers" and the juvenile "Daily Kos" so called progressive wing will continue to react to all things Palin-whether true or not- with their continuous knee jerk venom but clearer minds have appeared.

Jon Stewart, whilst continuing to poke good natured fun at Palin, analysed her performance on Leno's show and, apart from giving her comedy routine a "not bad' mark, said her appearing "showed the genius of Palin who can do anything" Further, he contrasted her showing very positively with that of Romney who was on Letterman at the same time. He concluded that it would be a "mistake to underestimate" her ( a theme which has gained traction in a number of quarters recently).

However the most serious analysis from a leftist point of view has come from Lee Seigel, an award winning respected author and senior columnist at The Daily Beast. Siegel's column differs from the standard view of Palin from the political scientist type of analysis "Can Palin win the Iowa caucus?" or Palin as a feminist (or not) phenomenon, Palin and the Tea Party etc, in that he takes her deadly seriously as a political/cultural threat to the liberal left.

What makes his column almost unique is that he does it without the snarkiness, dismissiveness and downright contumaciousness that usually accompanies such articles. That leftist thinking is only at the commencement stage of taking Palin seriously is, to give him his due, shown by his, probably unconscious, condescension ("Scott Brown's daughter running the (presidential) campaign along American Idol lines") which the establishment left often shows (particularly noticeable with the female writers) to this outsider and representative of the flyover country they do not understand.

Siegel presents two main themes. Firstly, one might conclude that by (apparently) "cheapening herself and making herself look ridiculous as an entertainer" Palin is destroying any political future she might aspire to. This in respect of her Leno/Conan performances and the possible Alaska documentary series currently being touted.

He advises that this is absolutely not the case-rather by making herself "ridiculous" Palin has destroyed the sword of her enemies who can't ridicule her in the same way they did in the 2008 election. This is spot on-one wonders how Tina Fey will, if she does now go ahead with her planned SNL appearance, lampoon someone who has lampooned herself-certainly another example of Stewarts "The genius of Palin"

The second, more subtle theme, is that through all the projects that Palin has undertaken, Seigal enumerates the projected documentary, her Fox contract and the Leno/Conan shows (add in her books, Tea Party interaction, right to life meetings, parade for the mentally handicapped and numerous other public showings) she has "built up a narrative"

What this means is that the public will take Palin into their own lives as a part of their own persona. Just as this persona would protect their view of themselves in the event of an untoward incident-the equivalent of a "scandal" in a public persons life e.g. a divorce or infidelity, so it would shield Palin from any scandal, unless so large it would penetrate through the layers of narrative. Siegel posits this would have to be at a level of being caught in flagrante but Clinton has shown that even at a higher level than that a mutual narrative between leader and follower can trump the greatest indiscretions!

Siegel concludes that Palin's mastery will lead to "the joke being on us" (the left) as she ascends the podium at the 2012 Republican Convention" The only thing that might prevent this is others on the thinking left waking up to the very real threat Palin poses to them and instead of continuing down the same, aloof, strident, attack path recognise that they have, in no small part, created a rod for their own back and create a real opposition to her (which oddly has only come from the, condescending, intellectuals on the right). If they don't, then they should sit back at enjoy her ascent from a purely social observer vantage and wonder at the blindness of their colleagues.

Friday, March 5, 2010

$arah Palin$ Di$appearing $100,000 $peaking Fee

The person the left calls "venal, a grifter only in it for the money" and other seemingly endless descriptions of veniality fit only for Croesus has "Stunned the crowd" at the Ohio Right To Life fundraiser event when she announced her speaking fee (usually in the region of $100,000 would be donated back to the Foundation.

This,after Palin donated $1,700 at the Silver Spoon Oscar Gifting Suite to the earthquake victims of Haiti and Chile.

Is there no end to what this person will do to show her true nature?? 

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Letterman And Palin-Dave Still Doesn't Get It

I wrote in January that given Letterman had stopped running his "Things more fun than reading Sarah Palin's book" nightly slot and had toned down his anti-Palin remarks in his monologue that perhaps it was time for Palin to consider appearing on his show. He had apologized three times for the particularly offensive remarks about her daughter and, given Palin's forgiving Christian nature, perhaps the time had come for a new start between them.

There would be considerable advantages to both as well I posited. The audience for Palin’s guest spot would break all records and both would benefit from the exposure.

Since the article was written Leno has replaced Conan in the late night slot and has, with much wisdom, had Sarah as an opening week guest. All that would have happened for Letterman has happened for Leno with the resulting massive audience uptake. Palin, on top of bringing eyeballs, gave an outstanding bravura performance mixing self deprecating humor with common sense politics. Her spot left arch critics like Behar flailing and more cerebral critics like Jon Stewart being positive-even the mad anti-Palinites struggled to find anything deprecating to say.

Letterman chose to have Romney as his guest at the same time Palin was on Leno-with the, as expected, ratings result being hugely in Leno's favor. Jon Stewart mercilessly compared the two Republicans and his analysis was not kind to Mitt. You would think that someone of Letterman's intelligence and years of experience would look at the situation (if not him then at least is advisors) and surmise that if he made an heartfelt outreach, on a personal level, to Palin that a genuine, person to person dialogue might smooth things over and bring her to his show.

But no, his response on his next show was to go straight back into the attack mode ( and on such a petty level) "New York Gov. David Paterson said he will not run for election but he will serve his full term. He's going to finish his term. He's going to keep being governor till the very end. Did you hear that, Sarah? Till the end. He's going to continue to be the governor till the very end." As if the two situations are remotely comparable-Paterson did not have a bunch of Democratic operatives doing all they could to bankrupt him and disrupt the legislative process in New York.

It seems that Letterman has let his ego get the better of him and he can't admit to himself that he was wrong about Palin. He is not used to someone getting the better of him (did his beating down McCain after McCain stood him up during the election campaign make Letterman believe no one will cross him again?).This short-sightedness has made him blow a fantastic opportunity to get massive ratings and show a better character. He can go all anti-Palin he wants but it will have no effect as the public recognises the reason for his comments and have seen the true side of her character on Leno's show.

There is only one winner in this situation and it isn't Letterman-how's that attack Palin thing working out for ya ratings wise Dave?