Friday, September 30, 2016

Two Days Post Debate Trump Rises To 5.6 Lead USC/LATimes Poll

The respected USC/LATimes Poll now two days post debate  and 2 of the 7 days compiled including the two days post debate has Trump showing a sharp rise to a substantial 5.6 point lead
TRUMP 47.3% CLINTON 41.7%

After an initial one day post debate rise Trump plateaued and Hillary rose slightly but this latest 09/29 poll has Trump rising again by 0.6 and Hillary with a significant drop of 1.2 points.

Nate Silver the indefatigable Dem supporter advised;

If USC/LATimes/Rasmussen/PPD and others are concerned Silver's bias will, once again lead him astray where Trump is concerned.

This is why Trump has risen-ordinary folks are fed up with the MSM/Establishment elites disdain. His lead in this category is a massive 20 points 55% to 33% and rising sharply post-debate where Hillary was the epitome of the arrogant elite.

Further analysis of the poll from
Techno at C4P

Thursday, September 29, 2016

The Debate;Sound And Fury Signifying-No Change?Two Days Of Polls Show Slight Move To Trump

For all the massive media beat-up the huge viewing audience and the post debate pontification, mostly by the pro-Hillary media who determined, based o one grossly distorted CNN poll, that Hillary "won" the quality polls show just a slight uptick for Trump.

It may well be that people have for the most part determined who they will support and nothing, short of Hillary having keeled over or Trump having blown his top, would have changed things as they stood prior to the debate.

Certainly the partisans voiced their opinions that their manor woman wiped the floor with the other but that has no bearing on the wider reality.

The first USC/LATimes showed about a half point uptick for Trump which put him around +4 where he has been hovering for weeks with his long term average about +2.2. Day two saw Trump stay at his same percentage as day one with Clinton "gaining" 0.3 of a point.

the poll by the Dem leaning firm PPP Polling has Clinton at +4 which i actually one point lower than the +5 she was weeks ago. A couple of post debate state polls from Michigan and Missouri showed small movement to Trump and one from Louisiana showed movement to Clinton but nothing outside the usual poll ups and downs.

There were some larger shifts but they were from polls from obscure outfits or ones that Real Clear Politics doesn't recognize so can be discounted.

Unless subsequent polling from reputable firms shows substantial movement for either candidate over the next few days the debate will have proven to be a wash in respect of any"game changer" drama and things will be as they were before with the battle in the few key marginal states determining who will be elected in November.

This is the Post debate USC/LaTimes graph.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Tracking Polls Update 09/27; Trump Has Lead For 19 Straight Days/Slight Post-Debate Rise

Now that UPI/C has updated their tracking data we can get a clearer picture of the head to head Trump/Clinton race.

Trump has lead for 19 consecutive days with the UPI/c poll leaning to Clinton and the USC/LATimes poll leaning to Trump with PPD mirroring USC poll but with a slightly less Trump lean.

This is what aggregation is all about and, according to experts, is the best measure of analyzing polls.

The aggregate lead for Trump over the last 19 days is +2.2 points. The first post debate polls shows a slight lift for Trump but a better measure will be apparent over the next days as the pre-debate respondents are winnowed out.

First Post Debate Poll And It's Sensational For Trump +4.1

So called "guru" Nate Silver Tweeted "Hillary won the debate and it's likely her polls will rise"

He also claimed that Hillary's win was based on the CNN poll result. He didn't advise that the CNN poll was hugely distorted to favor Democrat voters and that thirteen post debate polls showed a clear win for Trump.

The CNN poll claiming Hillary won the debate sampled 41% Democrats and only 26% Republicans. Always check polling samples and assume bias.

The respected USC/LATimes tracking poll which is included in the Real Clear Politics aggregate of acceptable polls  closed the day before the debate 09/16/17 with Trump leading Clinton by 3.5 points at 46.2% to  42.7%

Their first poll after the debate 09/27/16  shows Trump 46.7 %  and Clinton  42.6%  Trump 4.1% lead.

This is just the first indication as the poll includes votes from earlier in the week but the trendline is clear in it's implications 

Biggest jump in Trump's post debate support was among Blacks and all people aged 18-34

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Trump's Debate Ticked All the Boxes For Him

Trump did just fine.

He was forceful enough when needed and the forcefulness was manifestly justified in relation to Hillary's answers and especially her rebuttal. That is he was perceived as not flying off the handle even when he was being unfairly quoted/attacked.

Trump was manifestly in control of his statistics and major points without giving the impression of a stilted rehearsed set of answers.

Trump stayed true to his base on climate control,guns and law and order when he might have compromised or watered down these elements in a (mistaken) attempt to broaden his support, which would not have happened and which woudl have led to a substantial loss of support and justifiable cries of hypocrisy.

Trump didn't take the bait from Hillary when she goaded him on women's issues whilst hinting at dark events relating to the Clinton's he said he woudl hold his tongue-well done.

Trump showed a firm but fair temperament which was an absolute must for him.

In the end however the crisis of the middle class, race-relations in crisis,the mess in the mid-east/ISIS and America carrying an unfair share of world peacekeeping whilst being subjected to unfair trade practices and the disaster of FTA were all matters Hillary could not justify and make rational the promise to clean them up after eight years of causing them.

With immigration up next, surely, and this one under his belt, Trump can only move into a commanding position.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Outer Limits Of Trump Electoral College Blowout Takes Shape

Head to head polls, which lag the tracking polls are showing the Trump/Clinton race at a near tie while the tracking polls consistently have Trump ahead in the aggregate for 22 straight days.

The state polls which trail both the head to head and the tracking polls have had Trump close an enormous gap in the Electoral college, which is what counts in the end, to the point where he is one state from being above the 270 votes required to be elected. 

If current polling trends continue, where Trump leads in a number of the key contested states in the aggregate i.e Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and one CD district in Maine, and leads in current polls in North Carolina, then the prospect of a Trump blow-out comes into view for the first time. 

Here is the Real Clear Politics analysis of the electoral College situation as of today based on current latest polling which shows a Clinton 272 to Trump 266 split (270 being the winning number) and again it only takes one further state to fall into Trump's column for him to win.

New polling from Pennsylvania puts Trump within two of Clinton and he is within or just outside the margin of error (MOE) in Wisconsin, Colorado (where he leads in one poll) and Michigan in some older polls. 

If these four states move into Trump's column his realistic Electoral College number would be a massive 323 to 215 margin. 

New Hampshire is currently significantly outside the MOE but if Trump's trending accelerates it is conceivable that the states 4 votes as well as two further from Maine (Clinton would win the states 4th vote) would stretch Trump's margin to 327 to 211 almost equal to President Obama's 332 to 206 against Romney in 2012.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Nate Cohn "Nobody Could Reasonably Have Anticipated Trump's Victory" (Except These 7 For Starters)

New York Times leftist "pundit' Nate Cohn wrote regarding Donald Trump's nomination that it 

"came together in unexpected ways to produce a result that no one could have reasonably anticipated?"

He wrote this is a long somewhat explanatory column about his predictive failures "What I got wrong about Donald Trump

Typically the emphasis was not so much on Cohn's individual failure but on the collective "we" with one "I" emphasis;

"We will never know just how wrong we were about Donald Trump"

It is unfair to all those who actually did predict Trump's triumph (linked below) to let Cohn's universal "nobody" pass by uncorrected. Here are just some of those who were not blinded by leftist bias. Most certainly Governor Sarah Palin who was the first major endorser of Trump, and yours truly who blogged for Trump from the start can be added to the list.

Video;Rep. Keith Ellison Predicts Trump as Nominee In July 2015; Panel Laughs Hysterically

As Trump Coasts to the Nomination, Remember That the Cartoonist Behind Dilbert Saw It All Coming.

Scott Adams also predicts Trump will beat Hillary Clinton in "a landslide."


Michael Moore Predicts Donald Trump Will ‘Absolutely’ Win GOP Nomination


Last year, I predicted the GOP would nominate Trump" 


Man Who Predicted Trump Would Win the GOP Nomination

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Palin;Living In Obama's "Hopey Changey" Head Since 2010

First report of Governor Palin's "Hopey Changey" comment about President Obama
read the full article at  LINK) From February 2010!

And seven year s and seven months later President Obama references it-clearly she's living in his head

And Governor Palin's witty response;(From C4P LINK)

Governor @SarahPalinUSA’s "Hopey Changey" Mocking Of @BarackObama Still Works

Hillary's Strange 19th Century "Front Porch" Campaign; Post Election Update

Update post election; Never again will a candidate so insult voters and give their supporters so little enthusiasm by running small venue "events." 

It could not be clearer that now president-Elect Donald Trump's massively attended and constant run of public meetings showed to his rural base supporters that he had enough respect for them to give them a voice in his campaign. The enthusiasm generated must have had a considerable spin-ff effect for him in the communities when attendees went back to their homes.

Hillary's (and Kaine's pathetic attempts) simply further illustrated the elitism which lost her the election/

William McKinley campaigning from his front porch in 1896 (The railways offered excursion tickets to assist getting crowds to his Ohio home)

"A front porch campaign is a low-key electoral campaign used in American politics in which the candidate remains close to or at home to make speeches to supporters who come to visit. The candidate largely does not travel around or otherwise actively campaign.[1] The successful presidential campaigns of James A. Garfield in 1880, Benjamin Harrison in 1888 andWilliam McKinley in 1896 are perhaps the best-known front porch campaigns.

McKinley's opposing candidate, William Jennings Bryan, gave over 600 speeches and traveled many miles all over the United States to campaign, but McKinley outdid this by spending about twice as much money campaigning. While McKinley was at his Canton, Ohio, home conducting his "front-porch campaign", Mark Hanna was out raising millions to help with the campaign."

Up until at least 1860 when Stephen Douglas made a long trip "to see my mother" stopping off at various locations to make (much ridiculed) speeches" it was considered "unseemly to actively campaign for the presidency "let the office and the high honor seek the man."

In 1896 William Jennings Bryan broke the mold (with the exception of Warren Harding's 1920 somewhat front porch campaign) with a cross country barnstorm the likes of which were not seen until Harry Truman's "back of the train" campaign. But, in general, presidential campaigners have used the mass meeting.

A huge stadium filled with raucous supporters was a time honored method of showing the media the strength of your support, getting your message out and energizing voters, particularly the base who would be most likely to turn out for such events.

Barack Obama was a master at this outreach especially to his young supporters who were so crucial to his Electoral College majorities which were run up in the heavily populous states of Florida,New York, California and Ohio.

There can be little doubt the optics of Donald Trump's mass rallies during the primary campaign did much to persuade Republican rank and file voters that the likes of Jeb Bush, whose event attendance was embarrassing, lacked the mass appeal that would be needed to take of Hillary Clinton and the Democratic machine.

But, surprisingly and uniquely in modern presidential campaign history, Clinton has eschewed even one attempt at a mass rally. Further, her campaign events have been, again remarkably, comparatively sparsely attended. There must be a Clinton team strategy behind this but whatever it is it seems, at  least optics wise, to be of little value.

As a negative the contrast between Trump's massive rallies and Clinton's must signal to voters that the enthusiasm for her is, to say the least, lacking. It shows, unless they have been deliberately excluded, that young people have little interest in supporting her, at least as activists

.Further it at least raises the question as to whether she could fill a stadium and if her health and energy are up to make a filled stadium event work.

It may well be that 2016 marks a new watershed where  all the fundraising for television advertising turns out to have been a waste of time and money. It may turn out that mass rallies are a thing of the past. But while Trump "free media" campaign appears to be working as the polls get closer Hillary's low profile campaigning appears to have no positives. 

The media has completely ignored the contrast between Trump's meeting turnout and Clinton's, maybe they, and she will be proven right, but it might also turn out to be a disastrous mistake.

Hillary's Crucial Mistake; Not Having Warren or Sanders as VP?


Can Clinton Win the Kids?

Millennials really don't like Hillary Clinton. Many of them say she is a corporate stooge and (almost) as bad as Donald Trump. If they stay home on Election Day, or vote for Jill Stein or Gary Johnson, she has a very big problem. Two recent polls show that 30% of voters under thirty plan to vote for either Johnson or Stein. The ones who love Sanders' proposal for a $15/hr minimum wage would probably be quite surprised to learn that Libertarians want to repeal the minimum wage law and let the free market determine what people are paid, not the government.
So, how is the 68-year-old Clinton trying to win the kids back? She is sending in their favorites, the 67-year-old Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and the 74-year-old Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The duo are being sent on a tour of college campuses in Ohio to pitch Clinton's plan of making community college free and providing scholarships for needy students so no one graduates with debt. She doesn't want to have tuition at state schools be zero, because she thinks that Donald Trump's kids ought to be paying their own way.

The nationwide polls have tightened from the Democratic Convention mass hubris (some say hysteria) where the pundits anointed Hillary and assigned Trump to the losers lowest circle of Hell.

Such idiocy seems remarkable as even the most casual follower of presidential election is aware of the "convention bounce effect but the media is incorrigible both in their Clinton support and their disdain for the intelligence of the voting public.

The truth is that, as of this writing Trump is within two points in the head to head polling, and in the ascendancy, but, more importantly, he has passed Clinton in the Electoral College based on the most recent state polls.

All of this polling may have a major distortion the "enthusiasm effect" which most recently manifested itself in the "Brexit" election. In the U.K. referendum the pollsters had "Remain" winning and winning in part through the poll support of young voters. 

One politician commented "anyone who relies on the turnout of young voters is a dead man" and he was correct, not only for Brexit but for the previous U.K. general election.

Young voters, when they are enthused and turn that enthusiasm into showing up at the polling booth can make a huge, winning difference as President Obama's elections proved. 

It seems clear that millennials have little love and even less enthusiasm for Hillary. If the USC/LATimes tracking poll and even worse omen for Clinton is Trump actually leading her at his highest level among the 18-24 age group demographic;

If her polling support is based in any large part on these same people showing up Trump may win in an Electoral College landslide.

There can be little doubt that if the legion of Sanders supporters could have had their enthusiasm for him transferred to Hillary the votes which appear to be going to Johnson and Stein would be, perhaps in near entirely, be hers and consequently an easy run to election. 

Sanders, and probably only slightly less, Senator Warren as her VP running mate would have seen an entirely different campaign with mass meetings, feet on the ground and mass enthusiasm.

Would either Sanders or Warren have accepted the VP slot? there is no way of knowing but if Clinton had pressed the matter hard and rallied Sanders or Warren's supporters to pressure them they may have succumbed. 

Instead Clinton went for a staid "safe pair of hands" with Kaine which appears to have brought her nothing but just may have cost her the election. 

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Peak Trump?Tracking Polls Show +4 Aggregate High Top-Where To from Here?

Update September 20th; I asked 'where to from here" after the tracking polls showed a substantial rise for Trump post 9/11 "pneumonia & deplorables" the answer is, so far, a slow decline in Trump's aggregate lead but not the quick return to the norm of Trump and Clinton being 1-2 points apart and changing lead from time to time.

This is positive for Trump as if he can sustain an aggregate lead he will be well placed for the more important state polls to catch up to this "new normal" if that is what it is.

The picture is not entirely clear as UPI/C is lagging even further behind than normal. Give UPI/C's Clinton bent it is reasonable to expect they will have her 1-2 points ahead by their 9/20 poll but that will not drop the aggregate of the three polls below around +3 for Trump.

Although Trump peaked in the aggregate on 9/14 PPD and USC/LATimes are merging into the same at around +5  with his aggregate of the two polls running from +5.2 to +6.1. If Trump holds at that level it looks very good for him


The three tracking polls showed Trump's sharp rise post Hillary's "deplorables/9/11 "pneumonia" terrible media optics commenced on 9/12 as would be expected.

For the first time Trump led Clinton in all three polls, including a sharp jump in the UPI/C poll which has been the friendliest to Clinton. Trump's aggregate (in green) of 3.1 on the 12th was his highest since these polls commenced.

Trump reached +4 in the aggregate on the 14th and may exceed that for the 15th once UPI/C catches up (they run a day behind the other polls) but +4 to say +5 might be Trump's highest aggregate in this current cycle.

These tracking polls always lead the "one off" polls. Real Clear Politics aggregate average also shows a striking shift to Trump in the last week but just not enough to give him a lead-he is behind by 1 point. 

The state polls lag even further behind but there too, where the left was crowing about a "Hillary electoral College landslide" weeks ago Trump can be shown to have actually not only passed Clinton but to have enough Electoral College votes to be elected president.

But where to from here? UPI/C has clearly dropped substantially but not quite yet enough to give Hillary her lead again ( Trump from +3.2 to +1.0) Trump's best pollster USC/LATimes has ticked down  0.2 and Clinton up 0.2 since yesterday. 

These next few day will show, fascinatingly, whether Trump in an aggregate lead of around three points is the new norm, or the race will move back to where it has been since Hillary's post DNC euphoria faded-with both fluctuating within a point or so.

If Trump can sustain this current margin, more or less, then he stands to be considered the front-runner in the popular vote and if the state votes confirm it then he will be heavily favored to be president

Senate Races; Hidden Harbinger of A Trump Landslide?

Recent state polls in the crucial, for Trump, "Non-Romney states' i.e. those competitive states Trump needs to win to ensure an Electoral College victory give him just enough  to pass the required 270 mark.

However only in some states is Trump ahead of Clinton in the aggregate of polls which is the best guarantee, if there be such a thing, of his winning the state. In the other states where he is ahead it is in a very recent poll and then by a small margin, usually inside the margin of error.

Normally pundits talk about a "coattail" effect" i.e. a popular presidential candidate assisting down ballot candidates to get over the finish line in the polling booth. 2016 appears to be standing that historical truth on its head.

Judging by almost all polls both Trump and Clinton have "unfavorables' of unique and historic proportions.Trump can take some solace perhaps in that this are actually improving whilst Hillary's worsen. 

This and the perhaps unexpected strength of Republican senate candidates and the "enthusiasm gap" may actually improve Trumps chances of winning margins in the key states.

Here is how Republican senate candidates are faring compared to Trump's lead margins (or deficits)

North Carolina Burr +6        Trump + 3
Iowa Grassley + 17              Trump +8
Ohio Portman + 21              Trump +5
Georgia Isakson + 16           Trump +6
Florida Rubio + 11               Trump +3
Nevada Heck +3                  Trump +2
Arizona McCain +19            Trump +4
New Hampshire Ayotte + 8   Trump -2
Pennsylvania Toomey +1      Trump -5

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Palin's Gracious, Winning "Campaign " Of Abnegation For Trump

In typical gracious fashion 

Governor Palin offered her congratulations to Indiana governor Mike Pence on being chosen as Donald Trump’s running mate.
CONGRATULATIONS PENCE FAMILY; Illegitimi non carborundum
In this clash of civilizations, the courageous, unrelenting fight for America’s future is beyond paramount. If eyes are not open to this after the latest Islamic attack, then one may be hopelessly lost in the fake utopian world into which the Left sucks the gullible.
Congratulations to Gov. Mike Pence on being chosen to run for Vice President. Pence is an accomplished Indiana politician with decades of politics under his belt. He is a devoted family man, and he is a gentleman. He will serve well as Trump’s partner; Trump’s second in command.
Commonsense, independent patriots must now be wholly united and involved in this election process. Recognizing the nation’s enemies hellbent on decimating us militarily and economically, it’s wise to insist gentlemanly politics to take a back seat to the fighting Warrior spirit that must drive all our leaders in this upcoming epic battle for America’s security, solvency and sovereignty. A GOP team is now set to win that battle through strengthening our military, our Supreme Court, our balance sheet, and our common resolve to finally put America first.
Congratulations to the Pence family: stand your ground and fight alongside your dad through the coming months and years of scrutiny. Illegitimi non carborundum.
– Sarah Palin
If Palin was disappointed in not being chosen clearly had not the slightest effect on her desire for the best for Pence and especially for her chosen candidate Donald Trump. She knew that the slightest indication of dissent on her part would be blown up by the media and distract/detract from Trump's choice.

This consideration for Trump, and the GOP's chances in this desperate time to ensure the Clinton's don't get their tainted hands on the levers of power again, is clearly Palin's first considerations.

Palin has not made any public appearances since her two endorsements of Trump in Iowa and Utah and a campaign stop in Florida (cut short by her husband Todd's serious accident) and, tellingly in a challenging situations where she went in to a "lions den' for Trump.

In the primary campaign Palin faced very hostile to Trump GOP insider meetings in Wisconsin and Colorado. Only Palin, an irrefutable conservative, could have been Trump's stand in in Wisconsin and have received a polite reception and 
standing ovation

Since then Palin has let Trump have all the limelight and running in the sure and certain knowledge that any public meeting she attended would meet with a mass of media and leftist blog attacks. That her Tweet timeline is still constantly under attack by the haters is a clear indication of this. Trump needs all positive attention on him and no distractions.

Palin's supporters know this and will vote for Trump because of her support. There is no discernible resentment among her supporters over her quietude because they understand her self-effacing abnegation in the greater cause.

There can be no greater example of the sacrifice Palin has made than her non-attendance at the funeral of her hero 
(who loved her back) and example Phyllis Schlafly.

I have no doubt whatsoever that under normal circumstances Palin would have not only attended the funeral but addressed it. But Trump did instead and, again, if she had also addressed it there would have been a substantial media distraction from Trump's clear message to Schlafly's supporters that he is on their side.

On a positive note I am sure that Governor Palin is enjoying the campaign immensely, especially in these latter days as Hillary self-destructs and Trump rises. Being in the comfort of her family, under no pressure whatsoever sending out her thoughts to her legions of supporters in social media are all, hopefully, more than adequate compensation for not being in the hurly burly.

But by her very negation of personal interest in the greater cause Palin is cementing her legacy.