2020 election average Dem poll advantage was D+7.62. This was either utter incompetence or deliberate bias or bothPollsters had good kick in ass. Dramatic change now; Reuters IPSO R+3 Fox R+2 HillHarrisX D+1 Gallup D+1 Harvard Harris D+1 Quinnipac (no demographics stated but Biden 47% Appro) Morning Consult D+4
Thursday, August 12, 2021
A New Dawn For The Polling Industry?
Wednesday, August 11, 2021
President Biden's Aggregate approval 49.7% 2nd Fastest Fall In History
President Biden's aggregate of all polls approval at Real Clear Politics is 49.7%
Saturday, August 7, 2021
Bad, Bad Trends In Public Opinion Polling For Dems
Quinnipiac Polling < at this link, which in 2020 had the largest pro-Dem polling errors across a multitude of their Federal/state polls produced the following in their August 4th 2021 polling which included President Biden's approval at 47%, the lowest of all Registered Voters polls in the Real Clear Politics listing too date.
These are not looking good for the Dem's with the Midterms in view. Nota Bene-none of the following will be addressed on MSNBC CNN NBC ABC CBS.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?
REP DEM DON'T KNOW
Aug 04, 2021 44 45 10
May 26, 2021 41 50 9
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the response to the coronavirus?
App Dis DK/NA
Aug 04, 2021 53 41 6
May 26, 2021 66 31 3
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the economy?
App Dis DK/NA
Aug 04, 2021 45 50 5
May 26, 2021 47 45 8
Apr 14, 2021 50 44 7
If Joe Biden runs for president in 2024, do you think that would be good for the country or bad for the country?
Good Bad DK/NA
Aug 04, 2021 37 49 13
In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Very Somewhat Somewhat Very DK/NA
sat sat dis dis
Aug 04, 2021 6 30 22 40 2
Some people have suggested eliminating the filibuster procedure in the U.S. Senate so that all that would be needed to pass legislation would be a simple majority of votes; for example, 51 votes out of 100. Do you think that is a good idea or a bad idea?
Good idea Bad Idea DK/NA
Aug 04, 2021 39 50 11
Jan 13, 2011 42 45 13
Friday, August 6, 2021
Quinnipiac "Biden Apro 47%" Has The Worst 2020 Pollster Had An Epiphany After Humiliation?
Quinnipiac the "Nate Silver A rated gold standard" was the worst poll of 2020 and the most Dem leaning poll.
After all these years of being biased, incompetent and blatantly Dem centered have they found God? Seems so, although whether that will hold in 2022 and more importantly 2024 is to be seen, but for the moment it appears the light of common sense has pierced their thinking.
In the latest polling aggregate report from Real Clear Politics Quinnipiac has Biden at only 47% approval. This is the lowest RV rating for Biden from any on the RCP list since polling began.
Not only is this remarkable given Quinnipiac's sorry history but it is below Rasmussen which is chided by the left as being in the GOP's pocket (which they are not of course).
In all Quinnipiac's Biden polling they have never had him above 52%, and just once at that figure, in contrast to ludicrous "polls" from the likes of The Hill/HarrisX who had Biden at 61%.
Clearly Quinnipiac have made an attempt to get their act together and slough off their incompetence and bias-will this continue, let's hope so, but I don't see their demographic D-R numbers which if hidden is a bad sign.
Let's take a look at the 2020 history which will not be far from their previous years except in the level of how bad they were.
I wrote a seminal anlysis of Dem polling distortion which showed an average Dem lean of 7.2% with Quinnipiac using a D+10 demographic which is ridiculous. Rasmussen a supposed "GOP pollster" uses D+4 and 2020 exit polls were D+1
"Yes, The Quinnipiac Poll Likely Is Biased Against Trump"
refuses to say he'll resign after botching 2020 election polls"
Final Quinnipiac poll Biden 50% Trump 39% BIDEN +11
Actual result Biden 51.2 Trump 46.7 BIDEN +4.5
Fourteen polls got the Maine Senate race wrong. One Quinnipiac poll gave Democrat Sara Gideon a 12-point lead over incumbent Republican Susan Collins. Collins won the race by 8.6 points
Quinnipiac poll: 11/3/20 Florida: Likely voters Biden 47% Trump 42% they were off by 8.4 points Ohio: Likely voters Biden 47% Trump 43% National: Likely voters Biden 50% Trump 39%
BIDEN WIDENS LEAD OVER TRUMP TO 15 POINTS IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; TRUMP JOB APPROVAL RATING DROPS TO 36 PERCENT
In South Carolina, Quinnipiac predicted Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison were tied 48 – 48 percent multiple times, but Graham won by approximately 11 percentage points.
Quinnipiac’s prediction for the Maine Senate seat was also off after the organization predicted that incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins would lose to her Democratic challenger Sara Gideon by 12 percentage points. Collins, however, won the race by approximately 8 percentage points.
Thursday, August 5, 2021
Back On Twitter
I have gone back on twitter, this time for my enjoyment without bothering with any interactions-people can take it or leave it, it's just my observations and ramblings fwiw.
Wednesday, August 4, 2021
Henry Olsen @henryolsenEPPC Washington Post "another Trump-endorsed candidate may lose. That could be a huge blow" (He Won)
Election Day votes so far mirror the early votes from OH 15, so I'm calling the race for Mike Carey. Big win for him, bigger win for Trump."
And then this garbage