Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Updated:Donald Trump's Exceedingly Brilliant Poll Day 09/29/15

As is always the case as soon as the pundits trot out their "Trump is on the decline/finished after 1st/2nd debate' Carson/Fiorina/Rubio is threat to him" etc. articles Trump then starts to ascend in the next series of polls.

Noticeable there were fewer "Trump is finished" articles after the 2nd debate than the 1st as so many "pundits" got burned by Trump's subsequent poll rise many were scared to repeat their humiliation. But a number still had a go at it and clearly never learn (*see list below)

So, right on schedule the latest series of polls are outstanding for Trump;

NB; with these latest polls Trump's trend line has flattened out and arrested a decline. I would look to subsequent polls taken after his 60 minutes/O'Reilly interviews and tax policy release to show an upward trend or at least stay stable;

YouGov/Economist 10/01/15 Trump 25 Carson 15=10 point lead

Reuters Ipsos-Trump finishes 5 day tracking in a poll of over 500 Republicans rising to 30%-a 17 point lead

Morning Consult's latest poll gives Trump a 15 point lead at 30% (the naysayers will have trouble with two large polls having the same result)


In the new Suffolk/USA Today poll, another of these polls with a tiny number of respondents and with 18% "undecided". Trump has a 7 point lead at 23% which is 2 points above the touted by the media NBC poll which had him "finished" at 21% and 6 points higher than the last Suffolk poll.

Update;It just gets better for Trump; NB This destroys media meme "when candidates drop out trump will decline"
"Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in Wisconsin, now that Gov. Scott Walker has dropped out of the race, according to a Marquette University Law School poll.
  • GOP results:
    • Trump at 20% among registered GOP voters, followed by Ben Carson (16%), Marco Rubio (14%), Carly Fiorina (11%)
    • Jeb Bush at 7%, Ted Cruz at 5%, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, John Kasich each get 3% support
    • NOTE: Walker led Marquette’s Aug. poll with 25% support; poll shows Trump largest gainer, up from 9% last month
    • *************************************************
Leads Hillary in Louisiana

Louisiana: Trump vs. Clinton
More US Polls »

Tied with Hillary in the "rust belt' state of Michigan which Trump said he could deliver
Michigan: Trump vs. ClintonFOX 2 

Clinton 42, Trump                      42

A 13 point lead in Georgia
Georgia Republican Presidential PrimaryWSB/LandmarkTrump 31, Carson 18, Bush 8, Fiorina 13, Cruz 8, Rubio 9, Huckabee 4, Kasich 2, Paul 1, Christie, Jindal, Graham, Walker, PerryTrump +13

A 5 point lead in North Carolina
North Carolina Republican Presidential PrimaryPPP (D)Trump 26, Carson 21, Fiorina 12, Rubio 10, Cruz 9, Bush 5, Huckabee 6, Kasich 4, Christie 2, Santorum 1, Paul 0, Jindal 1, Graham 0, Walker, Perry

A 5 point lead over Hillary in North Carolina

**************************************************** * Pundits graveyard six new entries;

"The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump?"

Link> By Robert Tracinski


Donald Trump’s slide in the polls is beginning to look real


And Bump doubles down!   > Link

Sept; 27th

Donald Trump is free to cherry-pick his polls. But his decline is clear.


Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?

Trump momentum shows signs of stalling

The real estate mogul is losing steam at the polls, giving rivals hope that a Trump slump is taking hold.

Trump Change

Trump Change: Is Trump Slip Slidin’ Away?

Video: Donald Trump On O'Reilly 09/29/16 "Putin/Russia In Syria

Bill O'Reilly asked Donald Trump tonight about his policy positions, including how he would deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia's growing presence in Syria. Trump said that in terms of leadership, he would give Putin an 'A,' while President Obama isn't doing nearly as well. He said that the U.S. has invested trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives in the Middle East, and Putin is now taking over what we started. "He, frankly, wants to fight ISIS, and I think that's a wonderful thing," Trump said. "If he wants to fight ISIS, let him fight ISIS. Why do we always have to do everything?" O'Reilly said that the downside of Putin fighting ISIS is that Russia will keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power and then effectively control Syria. "We have given the Middle East to Putin and Iran, and they will run it for the foreseeable future," O'Reilly stated. "I believe that's true," Trump said, pointing to incompetent U.S. leadership. Watch more from the "Factor" interview above.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Video:Donald Trump On 60 Minutes Detailed Policy; Leadership on Display

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Major Statement From Trump "Willing To break NAFTA;" Trump Puts USA First

Trump: NAFTA trade deal a `disaster'

Posted: Sep 27, 2015 12:22 AMUpdated: Sep 27, 2015 12:22 AM
WASHINGTON (AP) _ Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump says he wants to be able to slap tariffs on U.S. companies that choose to make their products overseas, and he's willing to violate existing trade deals to do it.

``I like free trade,'' Trump told people at an Oklahoma City rally Friday night. ``The problem with free trade is you need smart negotiators on your side. When you have stupid people like we do, free trade's no good.''

In an interview with CBS' ``60 Minutes'' that will be broadcast Sunday, the billionaire businessman says he won't be stopped by deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement if elected president.

``We will either renegotiate it or we will break it,'' Trump said of the landmark free trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico, panning it as ``a disaster.''

``Every agreement has an end,'' he said. ``Every agreement has to be fair.''

Friday, September 25, 2015

New Video; Donald Trump's Speech At Oklahoma State Fair And Local TV Coverage (8 clips)

Speech: Donald Trump addresses supporters at Oklahoma State Fair POSTED 7:56 PM, SEPTEMBER 25, 2015, BY KFOR-TV & K. QUERRY OKLAHOMA CITY – 

On Friday evening, presidential hopeful Donald Trump addressed a massive crowd at the Oklahoma State Fair. During his speech, he spoke about why he should be the Republican nominee for president. Currently, Trump says politicians are “all talk and no action.”

He says America's immigration policy needs to be stricter, adding that a wall needs to be built on the border of Mexico so that only legal immigrants can enter the United States.
He also took shots at the media, saying, "They don't tell the truth."Trump says that despite reports across the country, he is leading all polls.
He also spoke about how being an expert negotiator would play a big role during his presidency, adding that he wouldn't be in the pockets of Super PACs.
He also gave reasons why the other candidates couldn't do the job, saying they are "lightweights."
Trump also discussed the treatment of veterans and military strategy regarding the Middle East.
Calls out media "They are horrible people"

Oklahoma TV Video Report 'Trump At State Fair 112,000 To Potentially See Him

OKLAHOMA CITY - Thousands of Oklahomans are expected to be at the Oklahoma State Fair Friday night.
On a normal weekend, fair officials say they can expect anywhere between 80,000 and 100,000 people.
This Friday, even more crowds are expected.
Fair officials estimated that around 12,000 additional people would show up to greet presidential hopeful Donald Trump.
On Friday evening, Trump was greeted by several fans at Wiley Post Airport after landing around 4 p.m.
"I just love it, I mean there's so many people out here. I hear we have a big crowd. How many people are over there?" Donald Trump asked NewsChannel 4's Scott Hines at Wiley Post Airport.
"Thousands," Hines replied.
"That's what I hear, thousands," Trump replied. "We're having a lot of fun."
Trump is expected to take the stage at the fair around 6:30 p.m.
We will have live coverage of the speech on NewsChannel 4.
!2 images at THIS LINK

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Updated:Trump's Magnificent Poll Day One In The Eye For Cillizza Rove And Huffington

After the obligatory "after the debate Trump is on the decline"  comments from the likes of variously Karl Rove,  Megyn Kelly Arianna Huffington and the hapless Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, Donald Trump does what he usually does-goes up in the polls.

Five out of six polls which included post debate polling had Trump on an average of 32% which is higher than his Real Clear Politics aggregate. These were all summarily dismissed by Megyn Kelly, who seems Trump obsessed as being"not valid because they have an online component". 

As I discussed in the link above no less than the polling guru Nate Silver of 538dotcom advised in the New York Times that these are absolutely valid in his aggregation analysis.

Non-internet polls have varied between a 3 point drop in Quinnipiac, a rise in Fox, and no change in Bloomberg. These are remarkable results given the massive media hate campaign run against Trump.
New New Hampshire poll

"Trump is now seen as both the candidate most likely to win the New Hampshire primary early next year -- with 40% saying so, up from 25% in July -- and as the one with the best chance to win next November's general election, as 27% say he's best positioned to carry the electoral college."
Trump leads with 26% support among those who say they plan to vote in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, about the same as in a July WMUR/UNH poll in the state. Second place now goes to businesswoman Carly Fiorina with 16%, third to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with 9% and fourth to retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 8%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who held second place in the July poll, stands at 7% now, and the candidate who previously held third place, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, has dropped out of the race entirely.

A newly posted poll for Oklahama gives Trump a massive above 30% result which is in line with so many other state and national polls:

"The latest quarterly poll from  SoonerPoll,Oklahoma’s only non-partisan polling firm, has Donald Trump leading in the state with just under one-third of the Republican primary vote at 30.8 percent."

*********************************************************** Now, subsequent to these previous 6 polls linked above we have  a poll in Florida which shows Trump not only leading but, incredibly having a higher poll number than the former governor and the sitting senator messrs. Bush and Rubio-COMBINED.Trump also leads Hillary Clinton in this vital state which is of major significance.

I'n the Republican sample, which has a 5.2 percent margin of error, Trump leads with 31.5 percent, followed by Rubio at 19.2 percent, Bush at 11.3 percent, Carson at 10.3 percent and Fiorina at 8.3 percent.
Part-time Palm Beacher Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican presidential field in Florida and Sen.Marco Rubio has moved ahead of former Gov. Jeb Bush into second place in a Florida Atlantic University poll conducted after last week’s GOP debate.
Trump gets 45.9 percent to 44.5 percent for Clinton — essentially  a tie given the poll’s 3.4 percent margin of error.
FAU’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative surveyed 801 likely voters Thursday through Sunday — immediately after last Wednesday’s GOP debate. "

Reuters Ipsos  5 day tracking poll post 2nd debate has Trump at 30% amongst GOP voters


Then the new nationwide Fox poll (no lovers of Trump there) have him not only in the lead but actually having increased his standing from before the debate. And he is just outside the margin of error in head to head with Hillary Clinton 46% to 42%.This is not an online poll so Megyn Kelly is in some difficulty

The respected Quinnipiac Poll has Trump at 25%-also above the touted CNN poll

The Bloomberg Poll with it's very high (5%) margin of error has Trump still leading and-unchanged from their previous poll at 21%


From Breitbart

A post-debate poll from Citizens United — provided exclusively to Breitbart News — finds that GOP frontrunner Donald Trump remains the clear favorite in the field, with almost 31 percent of the vote.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
 gets 18.5 percent, Dr. Ben Carson earns 17.4 percent, and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina takes 11.3 percent. Combined, that’s 78 percent for the four consummate political outsiders in the race. Washington establishment candidates, including
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
 and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, trail badly.

“Seventy eight percent of our respondents have with their vote voiced their frustration with the Washington establishment, and have cast their ballot with outsiders,” Citizens United president Dave Bossie told Breitbart News. “For the other dozen candidates to split up the other 20 plus percent is very stunning. Then if you look at the first and second choice, you have Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in a virtual tie.”
The poll of Citizens United members, over several days ending Wednesday, surveyed 4,913 of the group’s members nationwide online.
“I’m pleasantly surprised with over 4,900 respond

Media Grudgingly Admits "Trump Wins Stephen Colbert’s Show"

Yahoo grudgingly and with as much "snark" as the could muster  admitted that Donald Trump was excellent on Steven Colbert's show-blaming Colbert for denying them their attack article by calling it a "love fest"

To be fair Colbert most certainly did his best to get Trump cornered but Trump played the dignified 'presidential" candidate and left no room for fireworks-a most impressive display;


Via Lisa De Moraes at Yahoo

"Donald Trump Wins Stephen Colbert’s Show"

“I want to thank you, not only for being here, but for running for president, ” Stephen Colbert told Donald Trump on The Late Showtonight.  “I’m not going to say this stuff writes itself, but you certainly do deliver it on time every day,” added Colbert, who has been feasting on Trump’s candidacy since debuting as host of CBS’s late night show early this month.
Colbert didn’t so much interview Trump as perform WWE Theatre with the reality TV star turned GOP front-runner.  You know, pretends he’s thwapping the guy, but it’s all for fun  – and ratings. Not coincidentally, about a week earlier, Trump visited NBC’s late-night rival, Tonight Showand pounded Colbert in the ratings that night.
“Donald Trump is here…Finally a place on TV to hear about Donald Trump,” Colbert said by way of opening the highly anticipated showdown.  “He is the GOP front-runner. Who knows, one day I might be able to tell my kids I interviewed the last President of the United States.”
The night’s music guest, Raury, has declared himself The Future of Hip Hop, Colbert said, “which would sound egotistical on any show that did not have Donald Trump on tonight.”
Once out on stage, Trump was challenged to play a game in which he tried to determine which quote he had said, and which had been said by Colbert’s Comedy Central show faux-bloviator character. Trump  was game – and got them all right.  The last statement – “The real strong have no need to prove it to the phonies” – stumped him somewhat; he knew it wasn’t his, but he didn’t think it sounded Faux-Colbert-ish either. Trump was right again: The line was Charles Manson’s.
“I want to apologize to you, because I’ve said a few things about you, over the years, that, in polite company, perhaps are unforgivable,” Colbert said at another point in the interview.
“And, some nice things,” Trump insisted, adding,  “apology accepted.”
You know where this is going, as did Trump.
“Is there anybody you would like to apologize to right now?” Colbert asked.
“No – maybe the audience,” Trump quipped.
The interview threatened to turn into a love fest when Colbert asked Trump if he was shocked at the enormous response he’s been getting around the country since announcing his candidacy, “because you shocked Republicans.” Colbert cited a recent Zogby poll showing Trump at 33% , adding “I’m not surprised at all.” Trump smiles at the audience and said, “I’m liking him a lot!”
“I’m liking you too,” Colbert responded, saying the GOP position has been that “money is speech and you’re a 10 billion dollar mouth.”
“You’re their worst nightmare. The really want to stop you,” the late-night host continued.
The GOP “establishment… is not that thrilled,” Trump simpered, noting he’s spending his own money.
Colbert also pretended he seriously thought he could  get Trump to answer a “big fat meatball” of a question:
“Barack Obama, born in the United States?”
Because, of course, Trump’s been taking a lot of heat in the media for failing to shut down someone at one of his recent rallies who, during a Q&A period, said the country had a Muslim “problem” that included President Obama, who he also said was not a U.S. citizen.
“I don’t talk about that anymore,” Trump responded, of course.
As part of the show’s fun and games, Colbert also invited Secretary of Energy Dr. Ernest Moniz as his guest; Moniz is credited with being the architect of the Iran nuclear deal. Trump, like other GOP candidates, has criticized the deal. But, unlike other GOP hopefuls, Trump has not vowed to rip up the deal if elected, rather saying, “I’ve taken over some bad contracts. I buy contracts where people screwed up…But I’m really good at looking at a contract and finding things within a contract that, even if they’re bad, I would police that contract so tough that they don’t have a chance. As bad as the contract is, I will be so tough on that contract.”
So, Colbert had Trump sign a copy of Trump’s book, “The Art of the Deal”, for Moniz and suggested Trump sign: “Better luck next time.”
“I was just going to say that, but I don’t want to be a wiseguy,” Trump shot back. “I want to be a nice guy,” winning that round too.
And yet, one night earlier, Colbert had demonstrated how to do a tough interview with a presidential candidate, giving no quarter to Sen. Ted Cruz.

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Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Video;Full Interview Donald Trump With Colbert (Where Colbert Apologizes-A First) 9/22/15

Post 2nd Debate Aggregate Polls;Despite Media Hysteria Trump 20 Points Ahead

Update 2:

Chris Cillizza's article at Washington Post

 "Trump's act is starting to wear thin"

The act is his constant denigrating of Donald Trump for leftist Washington Post-he even admits he got in wrong in the past and blithely continues on the same path-paymasters must be satisfied I guess.
Cillizza uses the CNN POLL which has Trump still in the lead but down 8 points. What he doesn't say is that the poll has been the subject of many raised eyebrows because of its incredibly low number of people polled and wide margin of error.


He also totally ignores the 5 other polls which have come out since the second debate all of which have Trump in a significant lead at an average of 32%. See the facts below.

Meanwhile Megyn Kelly at Fox continues to use the CNN poll exclusivity to bash Trump whilst dismissing all the others as "computer polls and thus invalid." No less a guru than leftist Nate Silver accepts computer polls and only the most blinkered would say that 5 polls in a row are all wrong

Update1 ; New Morning Consult Poll; Has Fiorina's decline commenced already? Trump 20 points ahead holds above 30% from previous MC poll whilst Fiorina drops from 10% to 6%


Just as after the first debate the Trump hating media-which is 95% and the GOP Establishment went into the dance of frenzy.  "Trump is done", Trump has "peaked" and (insert name) "      " will now overtake him.

Bill Kristol wins the ever hopeful award for stating, for the 10th time! that "Trump has peaked" but Karl Rove is a runner up (on 'Fox on Sunday' 9/10) with 'Trumped peaked 2 weeks ago now is in decline and starting to fade'.  As a matter of fact Trump is now higher in the RCP aggregate then he was two weeks ago

Washington Post's Charles Lane then crowned not Fiorina, but Rubio as the eventual "Establishment" Trump killer.'

All this is very sad as is the current meme that  "although Trump is in the lead it is early days and come (unspecified) date surely the not'outsider' candidates will take over. Politico's Rick Wilson took this to its ultimate in elitist condescension;
"The (Trump) circus is nearly over-don't be the last clown out of the tent"

What is also so very sad about this is the blatant promoting of whomever the establishment and their media lap dogs think will bring Trump down (only to dump them of course if they ever succeeded with this silly plan.) 

Perry and now Walker have bit the dust and the main "weapon" Dr. Carson seems to be in a descent. The Establishment pushed Carson after the first debate, but since his traction has slowed they launched a blatant and sorrowful spectacle of making Carly Fiorina their "Queen for a day'. Has anyone ever had such a massive media push for no discernible reason?

As with the first debate the media seized on a immediate post debate poll which gave Fiorina a ridiculous bump and pretended she was the new anti-Trump major force. A "snap poll" of new Hampshire from a polling outfit nobody has heard of  "Voter Gravity touchtone poll" had "Warrior Princess" Fiorina leading Trump at 22% to 18%.

Then Gravis Marketing had Fiorina tied with Trump on 9/17 nationwide at 22% each with Fiorina going from 2.7% ! 

After the media feasted on this nonsense a degree of sanity returned, much to their chagrin, as the later polls appeared. Viewing aggregate average across these five polls we find

Trump 32%     Carson 13.2%     Fiorina 9.4%

Thus Trump is actually above his highest point in the (much more limited Real Clear Politics aggregate



Morning Consult;        Trump (Blue) 36%   Carson (Yellow) 12%   Fiorina (Blue) 10%        

Zogby at Forbes;

"Real estate mogul Trump has widened his lead to 20 points in a brand new Zogby Analytics poll taken after the second Republican presidential debate. The new poll of 405 likely Republican primary/caucus voters nationwide with a margin of sampling error of +/- 5.0 percentage points, conducted September 18-19, shows Mr. Trump with 33% (up 2 points from his pre-debate 31%). In second place is neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson who actually dropped 3 points to 13%. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina,  7%"

 Reuters Ipsos 5 day tracking  poll to September 18th