Monday, April 23, 2018

Unprecedented Black Support For Trump A Flashing Red Light For Dem’s

The latest YouGov/Economist poll (4/15-17) which is one of a few that has a comprehensive breakdown of support by ethnicity, has, as Rev Mark Burns announces his Congressional candidacy and Kanye West to be the keynote speaker at CPAC, some surely frightening news for the Democratic Party.

While Trump holds steady among registered voters at 41% his support among blacks in this poll is striking and if it holds for 2020 it could be devastating for the Dem’s;

“ Trump Approval; Blacks: Trump Approval 17% Not Sure 9% Disapprove: 74%”
The approval figure at 17 % is 9 points higher than the 8% of black voter support Trump received on Election Day 2016 and 9 points higher than Romney received in 2012. The “Not Sure” at 15% is staggering and the 71% “disapprove’ rating is the second lowest found in any YouGov poll among this group.
The same poll (their rounding) reported in January black Trump Approval 10%  Not Sure 15%  Disapprove 74% so the numbers are not only steady but improving in Trump’s favor.

This result may actually be underreporting Trump’s black support as, unlike the registered voters numbers, the report on black voters is for “all voters” which consistently has lower figures for Trump in all categories. YouGov/Economist gives Trump a 39% all voters approval rating two points lower than their registered voters findings (Real Clear Politics favors the registered voters results across the polling companies it reports).

Of course one polling company’s report does not create an absolute. Some firms  use different methodology, some don’t break down approval ratings by ethnicity, but the bigger picture is clear. 

Marist  3/19-21 “Trump Approval Blacks” Approval 6% Unsure 17% Disapprove 77%. The consistently negative to Trump Quinnipiac Poll 3/21  Approve 11%  “Don’t Know” 4% Disapprove 84%.  Taken in the aggregate the three polls have Trump’s approval at 11%  Not Sure/Don’t Know 12% Disapprove 77%.

The threat to the Democratic Party is obvious based on these results and their trend. If Trump could win Pennsylvania despite a turnout for Hillary in Philadelphia that was only three points less than President Obama received in 2012 and “The best turnout without Obama on the ballot I’ve ever seen” then any further bleeding of black support in that state could ensure Trump’s re-election, even if he lost Florida but kept his rust belt states wins. 

If the current 11% aggregate holds and turns into actual support then the Dem’s are in profound trouble-possibly even for the mid-terms.

In Michigan and Wisconsin Hillary underperformed Obama with blacks who didn’t appear to have the same imperative to turn out for her as they did for President Obama, and Trump’s “return jobs to the rust belt” message must have resonated enough to if not actually garner votes but to overcome any perceived threat from the GOP  to make enough stay home on election day. Trump’s margin in Ohio was so high that any further slippage among blacks would lead to landslide territory.

What might be the reason for this apparent trend to Trump among black voters? Clearly the Van Jones election night “this is a whitelash” scaremongering rant has seen that apocalyptic vision evaporate. That Donald Trump, a New York City social liberal with no taint whatsoever of racism towards blacks would somehow be a vehicle for the KKK and white supremacy was and is ludicrous, which the passage of time has confirmed.

That the left has given up on this messaging is more a facing of the facts of a failed meme than any credit due for common decency from that quarter. If blacks who voted for Trump see their support not eroded by such scaremongering the 8% level might now be solidified into a new base. That alone, given the 2016 result, might be enough to ensure Trump’s next win but there may be much worse news for the Dem’s.

There are three key dates from the official black unemployment figures; February 2010 the height of the GFC 16.8% February 2016  8.7% February 2018  6.9%. The last figure is the lowest since records were kept. Certainly the lower trend began under the Obama administration but the economy is far enough along in the Trump administration for the remarkable level of employment, across all sectors, to be ascribed to Trump’s policies. This indisputable fact has led to a spin from black Dem’s “Yes black unemployment is low but blacks value other things more than just work opportunities.”

Another way of looking at that might view might be that historically blacks have valued aspects of society differently at different times. From full enfranchisement in 1870 to 1936 black voters were a rock solid core of the Republican Party, especially in Philadelphia. This support was based on the GOP’s platform of ensuring their rights and, until Federal troops were withdrawn from the South, their protection at the ballot box.

In the presidential election of 1936 black voters deserted the Republican Party in droves to join millions of other voters to ensure a landslide for Franklin D. Roosevelt and the prospect of work during the height of the depression. That the Democratic Party was the party of segregation, poll taxes voter intimidation was a bitter pill to be swallowed when for many it was their only escape from abject poverty. The “Dixiecrat” split in 1948 which saw the southern wing of the Dem’s break away (to return in the next election) helped ensure the ongoing support of blacks to the “Roosevelt coalition.”

The return of prosperity did not cause blacks to waver In their Democratic support as their focus shifted to civil rights with President Johnson ( a noted racist) solidifying their support via the two Civil Rights acts of 1964/5.

Once again, due to economic considerations in 2016, and in the absence of any overt racism (and of course under a black president) black voters hesitatingly moved to Trump and his promise of jobs. That their try it and see, or as Trump put it “what have you got to lose” chance taking has been well rewarded, and Trump has shown no indications of any anti-black policies whatsoever, the first hesitant steps appear to be starting to move into a trot.

If black support for Trump gets into double figures the Democratic Party will have to look for different themes than “Russia” or Stormy Daniels and other such nonsense. It was their failure to present an economic focus in 2016 which contributed greatly to Hillary’s loss. To do so again, especially with black voters could end in utter disaster and a permanent realignment of the Electoral College map to their detriment.

The *complete selected monthly figures give a picture that confirms the aggregate support for Trump at 13%, well above the 8% on election day The combined “Favorable/Don’t Know” aggregate of 25% allows for an even higher  potential voting support on the supposition, which surely must be a possibility, of  “shy Trump” voters from that group.

There is a further flashing red light for the Dem’s in that Trump was at 17% favorability at the commencement of polling and collapsed to 5% in the aftermath of the Charlottesvile events. As the memory has receded and nothing further of that sort eventuated and job prospects are rising polling shows blacks are once again moving to Trump. If the two aberrant “Charlottesville months” are stripped out the flashing red light at 15% aggregate approval looks more a bonfire than beacon

*YouGov/Economist President Trump Approval Rating With Blacks

                             FAVORABLE            DON’T KNOW         UNFAVORABLE
           May ‘17             17%                            5%                                   78%
           June                  17%                          11%                                    71%
           July                   21%                            9%                                   69%
           August               7%                           18%                                   75%
          September         5%                           16%                                   79%
          October            13%                           10%                                   77%
          November        17%                             7%                                   73%
          December        11%                           20%                                   69%
         January ’18      10%                           15%                                    74%
         February           15%                           10%                                   73%
         March                15%                           15%                                   71%
             April              17%                      9%                           74%

         AGGREGATE           14%                                   12%                                           74%      
         Ex-Charlottesville   15%                                   11%                                            73%


Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Tax Cuts The Day After; Dem's Just Made Massive Mistake As Corporate America Passes On Huge Bonuses To Staff

 Nancy Pelosi, bless her heart, tried her best at a rant worthy of Pravda circa 1957:

"Nancy Pelosi: GOP Tax Plan Is "Simply Theft," Unrepentant Greed Of "Permanent Plutocracy" Is A Moral Obscenity"

Rep; Steve Israel "The GOP Just Bet Their Majority on a Tax Bill No One Likes"  

What no MSM/Dem's foresaw; Corporate America passing on their Trump tax cuts to employees. This on top of their direct tax cuts to come early next year.

Here is the immediate result of the "plutocrats" in action;

AT&T; Following tax reform passage AT&T said that it would give more than 200,000 U.S. union members a special bonus of $1,000

Wells Fargo & Company  said it would raise the minimum wage for its team members to $15 per hour and earmark $400 million for philanthropic initiatives in 2018. Some $100 million of that total will be committed to boosting small businesses, while $75 million will support neighborhood revitalization efforts.

Comcast The Philadelphia-based telecom corporation said it would award $1,000 bonuses to more than 100,000 non-executive employees. In addition, Comcast NBC Universal Chairman and CEO Brian L. Roberts said the company plans to spend more than $50 billion in the next five years on infrastructure investments that are expected to create "thousands of new direct and indirect jobs."
In a press release, Comcast said the initiatives were "based on the passage of tax reform and the FCC's action on broadband."

Thus, in the immediate reaction, 313,000 employees, "union employees" being given a $1000 bonus each and at least 13,500 having their minimum wage raise to $15 per hour. And there's more;

Boeing;The aerospace and defense company immediately announced $300 million in investments after the bill passed, with $100 million toward corporate giving including employee gift-match programs, $100 million toward workforce development, training and education and $100 million toward enhancing Boeing’s workplaces.

Every single Democratic Congressman, in the House and Senate voted against this happening.All the Democratic Party leadership's anti-Trump/tax cuts was destroyed within hours of the bill passing.
All the pundit's messaging that the 2018 mid-terms "will be a disaster for the GOP" is out the window.


Tuesday, December 12, 2017

The Top Ten Takeaways From the Alabama Election

1.President Trump's instincts, in supporting Luther Strange, were absolutely right. He had no choice, to defend his senate majority, but to endorse Moore. President Obama suffered massive Congressional defeats but still enacted his progressive agenda via his “pen and phone.” He was of course re-elected so 2020 is not a given for the Dem’s either.

2. The Dem's won with filthiest election tactics and masses of out of state money. The seat is of course on loan but the GOP’s senate majority is now infinitesimal with Collins/Flake/McCain etc.  holding the party hostage.

3. Well the MSM "If Dem's lose they will win, if Moore wins GOP will lose" now has to be rewritten “Dem's win and lose GOP loses and wins."

4. All those "progressives'” @wonkette @dailykos etc who call Alabamans "buck toothed inbred morons" now find they deeply love their fellow Americans from wonderful Alabama

5. The political atmosphere can't change because the entire MSM is dedicated to bringing down Trump. This is a war to the finish with no holds barred. The base must Fight fight and fight again

6. Hopefully Jones win will encourage Hillary to revenge herself for the 2016 stolen election and run again in 2020

7. @foxnewspoll "Jones +10" must be the stupidest last minute poll ever run, Fox Polling Zero credibility from now on. The entire polling industry failed yet again. Not a single poll had Jones winning except Fox which spoiled their prediction by making Jones potential win a ludicrous figure.

 8. Steve Bannon is done. Out of the administration and will never be sought for advice, and his endorsements will not be sought either. Sarah Palin lives to fight another day. Although she endorsed Moore early she did not campaign for him once the mass of harassment attacks commenced.
9. Black women Dem's having a field day "We are the heart of the base we have the power etc. This is most certainly true and may affect 2020 in Florida/North Carolina but Black vote which was  at its height in Pennsylvania can still see the GOP win the state and the Electoral College with massive Republican turnout in rural areas.

10. The GOP Establishment from McConnell to, Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, who refused to support Moore and put the GOP’s agenda in great peril, were instrumental in Moore’s loss. The day of reckoning is coming either for the Establishment or the base.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Under The Radar A Disastrous Poll for Dem's (A Wave Is Not a'Comin')

The Cook Report's Amy Walter produced a breathless article "A Wave Is a Comin' setting out how current polling shows the strong possibility of the Dem's retaking the House in the 2018 mid-terms

"This week, we’ve seen two polls — one by Quinnipiac and one by Marist — that show Democrats with a congressional ballot advantage of +13 to +15 is that kind of margin even big enough to net 24 seats to surf into the majority? The short answer: they need to see a generic ballot advantage of +8 or more, which roughly translates to getting at least 54 percent or more of the national House vote in 2018."
Walters then advises that on top of the Dem's polling advantage;

 "Getting a tax bill across the finish line isn’t going to be enough to change the mood of the country. A good economy is helpful to the GOP as it can cut down on some of the headwinds coming at them right now. But, it’s not clear to me that it’s enough to fundamentally alter the way voters see Congress, the GOP and the President.  But, there is precedent for Democrats winning the House vote by double digits in mid-term years."
The precedent is of course the fact that in the absolute majority of cases the mid-terms go against the party that has won the presidency prior to the mid-terms.

"Opposition parties, by contrast, find the odds forever in their favor. In the last 20 midterm elections, the president’s party has picked up seats only twice: in 2002, when Republicans gained eight right after 9/11, and in 1998, when Democrats gained five thanks to House Republicans’ obsession with impeachment."
All that being said however gaining seats and winning a majority are two different things altogether;

"In the last 60 years, control of the U.S. House of Representatives has changed hands just three times, always in midterm elections"
Another rule of punditry, perhaps one of the few to survive the disastrous prediction of 2015/6 is "a week in politics is a long time." 
Walters herself was not immune to this history of punditry failure by her own admission that she got the 2006 mid-terms and Trump wrong (she was not alone, her boss Charlie Cook consistently underestimated Trump "his ceiling is 19%)
Just after her Cook Report analysis this poll (page 8) appeared

2018 Generic Congressional Vote   NPR/PBS/Marist     Democrats 43, Republicans 40     Democrats +3

How does that relate to the possibility of Nancy Pelosi receiving the Speakers gavel from Paul Ryan? Not very well according to Nate Silver's view, written when the Democrat's had a 7 point Congressional vote lead  in June, of what is required for the handover.

The true margin of error for generic ballot polls is about +/- 5 percentage points, even for those done at the end of the campaign. So that 7-point advantage we see for the Democrats could indicate a national House win of only 2 points, which would fall far short of what the Democrats need to regain control of the chamber. (Or Democrats could win by as many as 12 points.)
 In the end, a final generic-ballot average showing the Democrats up 7 points would suggest that they’d be about a 50-50 proposition to take back the House."
Both Walter and Silver equivocate, as would be expected after the disastrous punditry before Trump's election, advising, rightly, that events can markedly change the picture as we get closer to the elections.

However, taking Silver's advice of a +/- 5 percentage point margin of error, the NPR/PBSMarist poll shows the GOP could actually increase their control of the House. 
But the historical reality leans to a swing against the Republicans. Even so it would have to be at the absolute top of the polls margin in favor of the Dem's  (+8) and even then the chances of a turnover are 50/50.
Walters concluded; "But, do not ignore what’s right in front of us. A wave is building."

Perhaps so, but the wave may be in the opposite direction to what Walters/Cook perceive. So many have made the mistake of underestimating Trump and the tsunami of 2016 may yet have some further surge power.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Hillary; The Sorrow And The Pity; "Depart In The Name of God Go"

It's like watching the end career Whitney Houston stumbling through 'I will always love you' or tragic Muhammad Ali in the early stages of Parkinson's versus Larry Holmes when Larry backed off in pity and Ali sat, head bowed, on his stool unable to continue.

It's sad to watch the descent of a fellow human being no matter how hideous they were in their prime. But now it's time to turn eyes away. I've reached a point where anger has now turned to a genuine sadness for, yes I'll say, it Hillary Clinton (and similarly the tragic stick figure of Kathy Griffin).
Watching Hillary hobble in a moon boot, flogging books in Walmart, railing endlessly about a stolen election "a dictatorship" if there is a hint of legal action against her, while her erstwhile defenders in the liberal media turn on her and Bill, would have previously brought emotions of glee, exhilaration and notions of "karma" but, frankly, all that arises are feelings of not caring at all.
Colleagues round on me with exhortations about her long career of various degrees of purported malfeasance, lying, enabling, rages, money grubbing and worse in fact the endless gamut of charges conservatives have railed about  for decades and of course they have a point. It is perfectly natural to seek political revenge against a hated figure who has stood in the way of ones partisan beliefs and electoral wins but I just don't have it in me anymore.
It may eventuate that Hillary has just commenced her decline and if what is being described as "The crime of the century" the uranium to Russia scandal with its purported pay to play Clinton involvement, actually entails malfeasance then even the most revengeful will at some point remove themselves from the ensuing denouement.
American political history has shown that the voters nearly always make the right presidential choice no matter how puzzling such choices are to the pundit class.

As each month passes from President Trump's election and unemployment reaches lows never seen in state after state, consumer confidence rebounds, blue collar wages show a sharp increase and the share market booms.
Hillary thus becomes more and more an afterthought as Trump voters are justified in their choice-most especially in the "rust belt' states where Trump overcame massive Democratic majorities and whose voters are being repaid for their faith in his MAGA promises.

Hillary's seeming pathetic end game role is to be thrown under the bus by erstwhile colleagues Like Donna Brazile, the 'Morning Joe team who, after decades now have seen the light that Bill (and by implication Hillary) where not the shining lights the left held them up to be and a whipping girl for radical feminist frustration;

"Hollywood celebrities, liberal journalists and Democrat politicians are being destroyed by this feminist war of vengeance, and why? Because Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, that’s why." 
Oliver Cromwell's exhortation to the similarly sad, well past its use by date and functionless Rump Parliament
You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

Might, with unexpected but needed introspection (and perhaps intervention by well meaning friends) commend itself to Hillary, in the end if not for her possibly incorrigible sake, then for ours.

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Redux; "The Kids Are Not Alright"

From 2013. the more things change the more they stay the same (or get worse)
Once again the denizens of Hollywood are using their unique propaganda tool, the Academy Awards, in the aid of their warped social philosophy.

It is a fair assumption, one only has to peruse the cover of  a gossip magazine, that a higher proportion of neurotics, drug users, out and out societal misfits, and the just plain mad who compose a proportion of the entertainment industry in numbers well  above the national average will be gathered together on awards night.

On top of their collective neuroses, and surely actors by their very profession are subject to various manifestations of eccentricity, they have, through the massive reach of their medium, enormous power, wealth and great influence on the average person.

Thus what just a few years ago would have been considered a gross perversion, if not illegal and generally not even possible, same sex couples adopting, or creating via the loving mechanics of a turkey baster, babies.

High profile entertainment industry types, can, through their wealth and media power, undertake actions which if a normal person attempted it they would be castigated or even arrested for breaking societies taboos. Over the years we have seen these structures of society attacked and then broken and then made commonplace by actors.

"Shock horror" newspaper headlines follow, then the glossies started to make it "interesting' and shortly after it became "normal" irrespective of what example it set for society and the effect it would have on children of such relationships. Of course such unstable relationships composed of unstable people break up one after another with untold harm on the innocents who are caught up in such horrors.

That aspect of normal society undermined, the next attack, Gay and lesbian same sex relationships adopting children hove into view. Again, the unthinkable becomes, via the wealth,"prestige", and power of entertainment types, perfectly acceptable to society. Elton John and partner adopts, how is it possible for men of their age in the first place to adopt an infant? Cynthia Nixon's "fiancee' gives birth amongst recent examples.

There are no long term studies on how children who grow up in these unnatural parenting relationships adjust in society.What sort of difficulties to they encounter at school amongst their peers? Do the have trouble establishing an heterosexual relationship? 

What effect will this have on population trends amongst Western nations and if they decline what will be the economic effects and the social effects as more third world labor is needed to take up the slack?

Hollywood doesn't care-all the denizens care about is satisfying their ego's, carnal nature and their hedonism "Cocaine is God's way of telling you you have too much money" Robin Williams is quoted as saying, Lohan, Sheen-well the list of examples is endless. Now having children has become their latest status symbol. It started with the adopting out of Africa craze and now has spread to same sex couples.

There are no barriers to satisfying their needs for those in the entertainment industry. Same sex parenting a no no? The propaganda machine starts. The first foray was The Birdcage with lovable characters, then "The kids are all right" whose premise is " look we lesbian parent couples are not weird, we have all the "normal" family problems and squabbles just like everyone else so our parenting is "normal"-just like everyone else

PC History Revision; Not 45 Presidents But 25 (Perhaps Only 1)

It was of course inevitable that the progression would go from removing Confederate statues to red painting or torching Christopher Columbus, Teddy Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln's ! Thus nothing was more certain, given this sometimes odd trajectory, that the "Father of The Nation" George Washington would be sent to the outer darkness.

That our first president has had his memorial plaque removed (as was Robert E.Lee's) from the church he bought pew number 5 in and attended for over twenty  years "because some people are offended" is hardly to be wondered at, but viewed with a terrible sadness as something inevitable but tragic.

"While acknowledging “friction” over the decision, the church’s leadership said the twin memorials, which are attached to the wall on either side of the altar, are relics of another era and have no business in a church that proclaims its motto as “All are welcome — no exceptions.”

“The plaques in our sanctuary make some in our presence feel unsafe or unwelcome. Some visitors and guests who worship with us choose not to return because they receive an unintended message from the prominent presence of the plaques,” the church leaders said."

 This is of course the worst of sophistry, a whitewashed wall of political correctness and 'white guilt" gone mad.

However we must bow to the inevitable, in at least the East and West Coast liberal redoubts diktats and take the next step and renumber the list of American presidents to reflect the new values and history.

There are, or rather were 45 presidents of the United States, but to prevent further white guilt, citizens being so offended that they leave the country and civil dislocation, this list must  and should be purged forthwith along these lines.

Firstly and obviously the 12 presidents who were slaveholders have to be removed from the lists and all statues, postage stamps, school/bridges named after or picturing them have to be similarly expunged.

Farewell to Washington/Jefferson/Madison/Monroe/Jackson/Van Buren/W.H. Harrison/Tyler/Taylor/A. Johnson/Grant. This takes us to 33. But we are hardly done yet as there are many more persons who will be offended by the majority of the remaining so on we push.

James Buchanan "a reluctant slaveholder" might be given a pass but his  "if you emancipate your slaves, they will become masters "Is there any man in this Union who could, for a  moment, indulge in the horrible idea of abolishing slavery by the massacre of the high-minded, and the chivalrous race  of men in the South?" puts him well beyond the pale
Down to 32 with work to do still.

Rutherford B. Hayes was elected via the 'stolen election' on the promise of removing federal troops from the former Confederate states which made for the introduction of segregation and Black voter suppression. 31

Democrat Grover Cleveland was twice elected non-consecutively, as the 22nd and 24th president with the support of the entire segregationist South-down to 29.

Democratic president Woodrow Wilson was a notorious racist and Princeton's 2016 decision to keep his name on one of  their schools will surely be rescinded shortly. 28

Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected four times with the support of the segregated south, a vital part of the Democratic party's coalition. His successor, Harry S. Truman was alleged to have been a KKK member as was Lyndon Johnson in the just released JFK assassination files. But doubt is enough in these querulous times to expunge. Down to 26.

Whatever can be said about Warren Harding, John F. Kennedy, Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Clinton we know they either fathered children out of wedlock or had affairs in the White House itself so in today's moral climate they are solidly entrenched in the up to date list of suitable presidents.

The current occupant President Trump, regardless of the fact that his own Daughter and Grandchildren are Jewish has come under attack for supposed "racism" so to be safe even though he is in office he shouldn't be counted as one of the presidents. 

Thus we arrive at 25 presidents who, on current sensibilities, can be allowed to be considered as presidents of the United States including especially the East and West Coast states.

However it may be considered best to have completely new start, after all, up until the Civil Rights Act every president presided over either slavery or segregation, and make what was president number 44, Barack Obama, the actually first president displacing most certainly the unlamented George Washington.