Friday, July 29, 2016

Trump's Post Convention Week "Bounce" Was 7.2%

Using the USC/LATimes daily tracking poll which is the only poll publishing daily results the RNC results were as follows;

Republican National Convention July 18-21

Seven day post convention July 22nd to July 28th (DNC ran July 25-28)

Trump's poll July 22nd (one day post convention) was        44.2%

Trump's peak poll July 27th                                                      47.4%   +3.2 points (7.20%)

Trump's final week poll day July 28th                                    46.7%   +2.5 points (5.88%)


Thursday, July 28, 2016

After Hillary, A Reminder Of What Truly Great Acceptance Speech Looks Like

The Tragedy Of The Betrayal Of Sanders Supporters And A Trumpian Remedy

I can write of the tragedy of the betrayal of Sanders supporters with empathy as as they are now I once was as the blog title clearly advises. 

I voted for McGovern, who makes Sanders look like Reagan and Clinton twice, I edited a radical, youth orientated magazine and was decidedly socialist in outlook.

Over the years I have seen politicians, endlessly, betray the voters who elected them as they embarked on a course of policies at total divergence from those they were elected on, and which their various political parties stood for, but have never witnessed such a betrayal by a politician before they were elected which is, I believe, unprecedented.

Whilst I of course don't support all the remedies that Sanders offered for the current ills I do support his followers earnest desires to have those ills remedied. I further believe that, if they reflected, his supporters, perhaps in a large part, may come to view that Trump's basic remedy of a return to employment as the best social beneficial treatment has value and that Hillary Clinton is not the best person to redeem America.

The actions of Sanders voters both inside and outside the DNC would seem to concur with the Clinton aspect, at least, as do the many statements of support for Trump by previous Sanders voters.

For Sanders supporters who worked tirelessly and endlessly on his behalf the vision of him endorsing, nominating and utterly caving in to her and the Democratic party, whose nominee is a creature of Wall St. then driving off in his shiny new car must be galling. 

I am not going to pontificate about "putting one's faith in princes" or the naivety of youth as such "naivety" in an honestly held belief is admirable.

What is not admirable is the blatant use of such emotions and the discarding of those who hold them in a callous and self-serving manner the likes of which have never been seen before.

The energy of youth and the dedication of older folk who desire change is still there although the holders of such are, understandable, crestfallen. I would echo Trump's call of the hand of friendship to those who seek change and advise that in my opinion the Trump mechanism would not be perhaps even 50% of what they wish but change, untied to Wall St. would come.

Not voting or voting for Johnson is a vote for Hillary. A vote for Stein in a solid blue state is a vote against Hillary and a vote for Trump in a marginal state is a vote against Hillary and a remedy for the Sanders betrayal. 

If Trump is elected Sanders supporters can value the defeat of the Hillary/Sanders axis, enjoy the push back to Wall St. and the establishment and work subsequently to have their own candidate run in 2020.

Monday, July 25, 2016

Major Article By Governor Palin;"We Need To Be Better, Not Bitter"

Via Independent Journal
Getty - Aaron P. Bernstein
Independent Journal Opinion is an opinion platform and any opinions or information put forth by contributors are exclusive to them and do not represent Independent Journal.
With Donald Trump securing the presidential nomination, the political narrative is shifting rapidly and revealingly. As you watch former haters hop aboard the Trump Train, it’s important to connect dots and understand my concern about a bunch of belated mea culpas with which we’ll now be inundated.
It’s important because time is short and lessons must be learned to avoid future catastrophic capture by status quo politicos.
Friends, my concern here is all about the attempted destruction of Trump SUPPORTERS over all these months. I’ve zipped my lips long enough; it’s time to call out those who’ve tried to destroy you.
Personally, since endorsing Trump, my family and I haven’t seen the level of hate and vitriol spewed our way since the 2008 McCain/Palin campaign. It’s been hellish. (Forgive my preaching to the choir though, as so many Trump supporters – and of course Trump himself – have been put through hell as well. And he ain’t seen ‘nuthin yet.)
From fair-weather friends and “supporters” turning decisively away in the meanest of ways, to me losing jobs – literally – the moment my support for Trump was made public, we sucked it up and hung on to hope that vindication was around the corner. I was told – for the umpteenth time – my career was over for “going rogue” this election cycle.
But the more people realize dirtiness on both sides of the aisle won’t be sanitized by today’s typical politicians, and the clearer voters see the ONLY candidate necessarily enlarging the tent with previously ignored patriots, and the smarter everyone gets about how to restore American exceptionalism, well…the more obvious the reason for sticking the ol’ neck out again early on.
Exposing political games and connections that hurt the innocent was the early battle. Now we move down the battlefield to hold culprits accountable so they won’t be rewarded with opportunity to keep screwing you, America. It’s how we win the war for our nation’s solvency, sovereignty and security.
I’ve said for years that nefarious politicos and their media lapdogs don’t really care which party wins elections – to them this is all just a money-making scheme. Politics are just business. As long as they get to keep their titles, ratings, power, and purses full, they ignore the will of the people by unemploying commonsense solutions to America’s challenges. I thank God enough primary election voters screamed, “Enough! The status quo has got to go!” and took up proverbial arms to throw the bums out. And the revolution has just begun.
Conveniently, oppressors of this nationalist revolution found a way to save face. The obvious wall-writing told them they’d lose money and influence if they continued fighting AGAINST the majority, so the donor classscattered from their polarizing candidate when Ted Cruz’s suicide vest detonated at the GOP convention.
The collateral damage is too much for them to survive; it’s shaking hell right out of their piggy banks. It wasn’t cool then to wage war against the permanent political class that’s essentially throwing in for Hillary Clinton, but after the Cruz implosion they have an excuse to come around.
They’ll never give you credit for being right, Trump Train engineers, because we’re still just peon passengers to them, but they’d like to join you now at the cool kids table. Just remember it’s YOUR table, patriots. YOU set it. They’d better behave as your guests.
I’ve been asked all year questions like why it seems I’m “relegated” to outsider status of current political machines; why there’s no longer a seat at the talking heads TV table; why’d previous “friends” commence public condemnation of me despite me never changing my values, priorities or loyalties to the right causes. The question is suggested, “Don’t you know if you just go along to get along you’d be in the big shots’ good graces?”
The answer is obvious as more dots get connected during this election season’s fall out.
The shifting and sifting you’ll see explains what goes on inside their grimy games. What’s left intact are lessons in how to survive, not how to make friends. For me, it’s all continued confirmation to never put my hope and faith in the political arena; instead I’ll be productive by choosing God and family to give me validation, definition and joy.
A significant exposition is the billionaire Mercer family’s financial ties to Cruz, his SuperPACs, think tanks, media outlets, and donor class hanger-oners like Glenn Beck, which will explain why guys (like Mercer-affiliated Beck) did a 180 on me – and you – with inexplicable personal attacks to invalidate us. The inconsistencies and random attacks they engaged in have been so, well, RANDOM that was hard not to giggle publicly at their bizarreness.
Beck and his ilk showed they don’t oppose politics of personal destruction they used to rail against with lip service. They actually participate in Alinsky-like tactics that make the rest of us gag at typical political shenanigans.
So now we must rise to the challenge of becoming better, not bitter, in the midst of what the obstructionists tried to do. You who knew we needed a revolution ignored the haters to find a revolutionary, and we nominated him to help make America great again. Now, validated, productive, joyful people will get our messenger over the finish line so we can begin the fight to restore America.

Saturday, July 23, 2016

Trump/Clinton Convention "Bounces" USC/LATimes 7/28 Hillary Up Only 1/2 Point


After the Obama/Bill Clinton/Kaine DNC Speeches
Hillary rises by only 0.5 points in new USC/LATimes Poll 7/28/16
Trump leads by 6.1 points 46.7% to 40.6%

REUTERS JULY 14th Clinton 46.5% Trump 31.5% Clinton +15 points

                      REUTERS JULY 26th Trump 40.2% Clinton      38.5%  Trump +1.7 points

The African American Trump support in the Reuter's Poll on July 24th was 12% which is double Romney's in 2012

 Five out of seven ain't bad 

New Gravis poll taken July 21/22 which would not reflect the end of convention Trump speech fully
Trump 51% Clinton 49%

As always, a single poll means little and the aggregate is what counts but once in a while it is OK to have fun especially when a poll gives ones side the advantage.

The trend is, after allowing for the polling adjustment, probably correct. 

How the Dem's convention goes will determine Clinton's "bounce" and after a further two weeks a clearer picture will emerge.

12% Support from Black voters in this poll-double that received by Romney in 2012 

Friday, July 22, 2016

Unmissable New Book "Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race"

Don Surber advised me that this book was coming and I have been checking Amazon with hope that the day would be "Der Tag"
and now it is here. For all who suffered the insufferable like Nate Silver, Harry "forecaster" Enten at Fivethirtyeight, Philip Bump,Chris Cillizza,Dana "I'll eat my column if Trump is the nominee" Milbank, in fact the entire Washington Post "press" and all the egg on their faces MSM who got Trump 100% wrong may they enjoy their permanence in history with such as "Dewey Defeats Truman". This is a delight to savor

Comments from LINK  (buy the book)

Top Customer Reviews

Format: Paperback
I do not believe any book like this has ever existed in the literature of politics or its history, certainly not of the press per se. It is written with an easy style, deceptive in its seeming simplicity and innocent humor, devoid as it is of the sneering hostility common to its protagonists, the pundit press, that renders it hard to put down as a book, all the more admirable in its message that truth is more than a match for the arrogance of the false prophet unfairly ordained. Surber has mined and quoted, without truncating in the least, the extensive column footage of political "experts" predicting the fall and humiliation of Donald Trump, often for years prior to his nomination bid. Whether you love, fear, or hate Trump, there is much to learn and even enjoy for all sides in this smoothly written and often delightful little book. The Chapter "Peak Trump" is worth the price of the book by itself and someday it will be considered a required classic for the educated journalist or connoisseur of political satire. The press itself and its monolithic motivation to rule popular opinion is examined in some detail, not in a polemic by the author, but by the press itself in its own indelible words.
Surber is a blogger now but was the political analyst of a small town newspaper for decades. He correctly called several National elections, missed others. He has the humility that gives power to his views, never blatant, always informative, always surprising. This book is a masterpiece.
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Interesting word.

On the one hand it describes well the targets here, the "press". So dense that no amount of "obvious" can penetrate.

On the other hand, it describes the book itself, where every word on every page conveys the story to the reader.

Another reviewer describes it as "a new political classic" -- I think it may be a new genre -- one that not only explains what happened, but also provides the whole back drop so the reader can see WHY it happened.

The whole book is important and should be read in-sequence, but be prepared for some chapters to hit harder than others, I think there were a half dozen like that--particularly 34, 41 and 44.

These special chapters triggered Aha! moments for me, where with great clarity I saw for the first time things I should have seen before.
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A new political classic!

This delightful book contains hundreds of quotes from the pundits, opinion 'leaders' and political 'experts' who all failed to comprehend the rise of Trump. "What fools these mortals be" was the Bard's line, but it also applies here.

But it's not just quotes; Surber's acerbic wit and analysis are also present, as in this passage:

"Only someone as entrenched in the federal government (as Witcover became after decades of covering Washington) would dismiss Trump's forty years as a chief executive officer as making him "conspicuously unqualified" to be president, especially while a community organizer with less than a term in the Senate sat at the Resolute desk in the Oval Office."

This volume should be required reading for all those studying political 'science' or journalism. Great fun!
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I haven't enjoyed a book quite like this one EVER. In punchy, tightly written chapters, Don Surber reviews the GOP primary process, from announcements, to primaries, to majority delegate position for Donald Trump, and has a blast with the conventional wisdom of the press and the pundits (who in general performed abysmally) who got to see their predictions fail in a short time, again and again. For those of us whose humor revolves around a line that gets more meaningful over time (think of Marc Anthony's "honorable men"), this is a collection of essays and chapters not to be missed.

You want it. This is worth buying.
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This is first rate writing. I consider Don a friend (and fellow Mountaineer!) but even if he wasn't, there is no doubt about his literary skills. The man knows how to make a case for his beliefs without being preachy or overbearing. WHEN - not if - Trump wins, this book will be looked at as one of the most sagely and prescient books in modern presidential political history.

Re; My Decision To Quit Twitter; Ace's Post Gives Reinforcement

I feel so much cleaner and better-should have done it a long time ago.
NB;When it comes to Trump's first post convention poll bounce & Don Surber's book on the MSM "pundit"fail I'll pass on the good news-but no interacting with haters.


From Ace of Spades HQ;

"Twitter's Stock Downgraded from "Hold" to "Sell"


That's because it's essentially a petri dish for stupidity, cowardice, cruelty, andimpotent hatred, and we already have plenty of that without it.
Posted by Ace at 12:28 PM Comments

New Poll;Hillary 35.7% Trump 34.9% Trump 12% Black Support

Spoiler alert it's Reuters. They rejigged their voter screen which was +10 Dem so for the first time this year they are coming into balance with most other polls. 

But they still have distortions as they show Hillary  winning white males which is just silly (as is Trump with their 12% Black support)

This poll concluded on the 21st while the RNC convention was still on and does not take full allowance for Trump's closing address so a Trump lead might be expected from their next poll.

As always, a single poll means little and the aggregate is what counts but once in a while it is OK to have fun especially when a poll gives ones side the advantage.

The trend is, after allowing for the polling adjustment, probably correct. 

How the Dem's convention goes will determine Clinton's "bounce" and after a further two weeks a clearer picture will emerge.

NB;The Reuters "likely voters" result, which polling is considered 'most accurate" has Hillary 40.8% and Trump 37.8% with a similar ascending trendline for Trump as the 'all voters" graph below.

The only other likely voters polls at RCP have Trump in the lead (slightly in the USC poll) and those are before the end of the RNC convention.