Thursday, August 12, 2021

A New Dawn For The Polling Industry?

2020 election average Dem poll advantage was D+7.62. This was either utter incompetence or deliberate bias or both

Pollsters had good kick in ass. Dramatic change now; Reuters IPSO R+3 Fox R+2 HillHarrisX D+1 Gallup D+1 Harvard Harris D+1 Quinnipac (no demographics stated but Biden 47% Appro) Morning Consult D+4
Rasmussen D+4
still playing games Marist D+7 Monmouth D+7

Wednesday, August 11, 2021

President Biden's Aggregate approval 49.7% 2nd Fastest Fall In History

President Biden's aggregate of all polls approval at Real Clear Politics is 49.7%


This marks the fastest fall of any newly elected president below 50%, except for President Clinton, since records were kept by Gallup going back to President Truman.




Saturday, August 7, 2021

Bad, Bad Trends In Public Opinion Polling For Dems

Quinnipiac Polling  < at this link, which in 2020 had the largest pro-Dem polling errors across a multitude of their Federal/state polls produced the following in their August 4th 2021 polling which included President Biden's approval at 47%, the lowest of all Registered Voters polls in the Real Clear Politics listing too date.

These are not looking good for the Dem's with the Midterms in view. Nota Bene-none of the following will be addressed on MSNBC CNN NBC ABC CBS.

REGISTERED VOTERS...

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

 47% Approve


If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

.

                          REP    DEM  DON'T KNOW

Aug 04, 2021     44         45              10

May 26, 2021     41        50                 9

 

 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the response to the coronavirus?

                          App     Dis   DK/NA

 Aug 04, 2021   53         41        6

 May 26, 2021  66          31       3

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the economy?

                             App  Dis  DK/NA

Aug 04, 2021        45     50       5

May 26, 2021       47      45       8

Apr 14, 2021        50     44        7

 

If Joe Biden runs for president in 2024, do you think that would be good for the country or bad for the country?

                       Good        Bad       DK/NA    

Aug 04, 2021     37          49            13

 

In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                               Very        Somewhat        Somewhat           Very          DK/NA

                                 sat               sat                     dis                   dis

Aug 04, 2021            6                 30                      22                   40               2

 

 

Some people have suggested eliminating the filibuster procedure in the U.S. Senate so that all that would be needed to pass legislation would be a simple majority of votes; for example, 51 votes out of 100. Do you think that is a good idea or a bad idea?

                            Good idea    Bad Idea           DK/NA

Aug 04, 2021             39              50                     11

Jan 13, 2011              42              45                      13

 

 



Friday, August 6, 2021

Quinnipiac "Biden Apro 47%" Has The Worst 2020 Pollster Had An Epiphany After Humiliation?

 Quinnipiac the "Nate Silver A rated gold standard" was the worst poll of 2020 and the most Dem leaning poll.

After all these years of being biased, incompetent and blatantly Dem centered have they found God? Seems so, although whether that will hold in 2022 and more importantly 2024 is to be seen, but for the moment it appears the light of common sense has pierced their thinking.

In the latest polling aggregate report from Real Clear Politics Quinnipiac has Biden at only 47% approval. This is the lowest RV rating for Biden from any on the RCP list since polling began. 

Not only is this remarkable given Quinnipiac's sorry history but it is below Rasmussen which is chided by the left as being in the GOP's pocket (which they are not of course).

In all Quinnipiac's Biden polling they have never had him above 52%, and just once at that figure, in contrast to ludicrous "polls" from the likes of The Hill/HarrisX who had Biden at 61%.

Clearly Quinnipiac have made an attempt to get their act together and slough off their incompetence and bias-will this continue, let's hope so, but I don't see their demographic D-R numbers which if hidden is a bad sign.

Let's take a look at the 2020 history which will not be far from their previous years except in the level of how bad they were. 

I wrote a seminal anlysis of Dem polling distortion which showed an average Dem lean of 7.2% with Quinnipiac using a D+10 demographic which is ridiculous. Rasmussen a supposed "GOP pollster" uses D+4 and 2020 exit polls were D+1


"Yes, The Quinnipiac Poll Likely Is Biased Against Trump" 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quinnipiac’s Pollster  

refuses to say he'll resign after botching 2020 election polls"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Final Quinnipiac poll Biden 50%   Trump  39%  BIDEN +11

Actual result  Biden 51.2   Trump  46.7               BIDEN +4.5


Fourteen polls got the Maine Senate race wrong. One Quinnipiac poll gave Democrat Sara Gideon a 12-point lead over incumbent Republican Susan Collins. Collins won the race by 8.6 points

Quinnipiac poll: 11/3/20 Florida: Likely voters Biden 47% Trump 42% they were off by 8.4 points Ohio: Likely voters Biden 47% Trump 43% National: Likely voters Biden 50% Trump 39%

----------------------------------------------------------------

BIDEN WIDENS LEAD OVER TRUMP TO 15 POINTS IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; TRUMP JOB APPROVAL RATING DROPS TO 36 PERCENT


In South Carolina, Quinnipiac predicted Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison were tied 48 – 48 percent multiple times, but Graham won by approximately 11 percentage points.

Quinnipiac’s prediction for the Maine Senate seat was also off after the organization predicted that incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins would lose to her Democratic challenger Sara Gideon by 12 percentage points. Collins, however, won the race by approximately 8 percentage points.




Thursday, August 5, 2021

Back On Twitter

I have gone back on twitter, this time for my enjoyment without bothering with any interactions-people can take it or leave it, it's just my observations and ramblings fwiw.