Monday, January 11, 2016

UPDATE; Trump at 41% In New Gravis Poll;Cruz Decline Iowa/ Nationwide/New Hampshire Confirmed

The Huffington Post "Poll of All Polls" aggregate to January tenth;



I set out in some detail on December 25th "Cruz Decline Underway?" that there were clear signs that Senator Cruz's ascent had begun its descent or had, at least, reached its maximum point.

This was in respect to his nationwide polling but subsequently his key primary states of Iowa, where he had overtaken Donald Trump, and new Hampshire have begun a decline and his nationwide polling confirms he is in decline there as well.

This reflects Donald Trump's uncanny ability to identify who is his most dangerous rival at any given point and his beyond  incredible ability to mount a successful plan of attack which is sharply focused on one aspect of his rivals failings. 

With Carson it was his personal history which was confused to say the least, with Bush his "lack of energy" and with Cruz, and with seeming perfect timing, his constitutional right to be president.

"Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad said today the issue of whether Ted Cruz is legally eligible to run for the presidency is “fair game

"Harvard scholar: Ted Cruz's citizenship, eligibility for president ‘unsettled’  


That major voices echo Trump's Cruz comments just before the Iowa election is beyond being put down to just "good luck" it marks Trump as someone out of the ordinary which is why commentators liek Philip Bump and Dana Milbank have been left floundering in his wake and Nate Silver destroyed as a one trick G.W. Bush/Obama pony "pundit.

TODAY'S POLLS


New Gravis OANN Poll  January 10th of 832 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.4% Gives Trump a huge 21 point lead and confirms the Cruz RCP average of 20%

In head to head polling Trump has a two point lead as good as any other GOP candidate against Hillary;






REAL CLEAR POLITICS LATEST NATIONWIDE POLL. CRUZ'S PEAK WAS DECEMBER 20TH




(BLACK) NATIONWIDE TRENDLINE FOR CRUZ



(BLACK) NEW HAMPSHIRE TREND LINE FOR CRUZ




LATEST IOWA POLLING


The spearhead right to the heart of Dean Debnam & all lib's



IOWA TREND LINE FOR CRUZ




HUFFINGTON POST'S JANUARY NATIONWIDE POLLS. CRUZ'S PEAK WAS DECEMBER 20TH AT 24% Cruz last four polls 18%/20%/19%/20%
























Friday, January 8, 2016

Hoping Governor Haley Can Avoid The GOP's State Of The Union Rebuttal Disaster

I wrote "Hoping Gov. Haley Can Avoid GOP's State Of The Union Rebuttal Disaster" But hope misplaced-curse continues. Ayotte, Haley both owe their careers to Palin but effectively stabbed her in the back as RINO's.It appears only Trump has shown loyalty
 Allahpundit / Hot Air:








Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels 

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels gives the GOP response to the State of the Union speech.
Remember me? I almost ran for president but nothing happened

"Bobby Jindal Takes A Beating"







  • "This was not Bobby Jindal's greatest oratorical moment."
  • "The delivery was not exactly terrific."
  • "I think he had a really poor performance tonight…it just came off as amateurish."
  • "Even the tempo in which he spoke seemed like sing-song, and he was telling stories that seemed very simplistic, and almost childish." 
  • "He tried the best he could."

  • Marco Rubio’s Water-Bottle Moment

    Cotton mouth Marco


    Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers Is No GOP Bench Warmer ...

    Who??

    Bob McDonnell headed to prison after appeals court rejection

    Former Virginia governor Bob McDonnell
    Not the best end to a career


    Up and down.Lost vice-presidential campaign, poor debate with Biden. Now Speaker

    Joni Ernst SOTU response challenges Obama in an affable tone

    Finally a good start-safe pair of hands

    Gov. Nikki Haley to deliver GOP response to Obama’s State of the Union

    Gov. Nikki Haley

    Good luck Governor!

    Read more here: http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article53133455.html#storylink=cpGood luck Governor!

    February 24, 2009Barack ObamaFirst address to joint session of CongressLouisiana Governor Bobby Jindal[4]

    Thursday, January 7, 2016

    Jan. 8, 2011: Palin/Giffords And Media's Descent into Hell Led By Kos Moulitsas




    The facts are simple and incontestable.  On January 8, 2011, deranged, obsessed druggie Jared Loughner opened fire at a political rally for Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, killing six, wounding 14, and nearly killing Giffords, who was the object of his obsession.
    Loughner stands in a long line of similarly deranged murderers and attempted murderers of politicians such as Hinckley, Bremner, Sirhan, and Oswald.  
    These men, as far as their mental capacity gave them a logical reason, were motivated by concepts that ranged from obsession with an actress to conspiracy theories to "prov[ing] my manhood" and other bizarre motivations.  In none of these cases could a direct causation be traced to a supposed motivation by or influence of a political figure not connected in any way to the assassin's victim.
    Yet immediately after Loughner shot Giffords, Markos Moulitsas who runs the far-left "progressive" Daily Kos, tweeted, infamously, "Mission accomplished, Sarah Palin[.]"
    What could have possibly motivated such a monstrous public statement, even from the purveyor of a site so lacking in morality that it was the home of the "Trig is not Palin's son" calumny during the 2008 election?  Palin's PAC had put out a map with a series of "targets" (actually surveyor's marks, not bulls-eyes, as the left claimed) on various congressional seats, including Giffords, where voters were urged to defeat the Democratic candidate in the midterms.
    From that, and without any scrap of connecting evidence whatsoever, Moulitsas and, to their shame, elements of the mainline media converged on Governor Palin.  The fact that his Daily Kos had done exactly the same targeting (Kos, incredibly, had "targeted" with Giffords also – as too conservative), as had the DNC, was shunted aside.
    Once Loughner was identified as the shooter and his clearly psychotic, drug-addled background (and photograph) were presented, any person with the slightest discernment and thought processes could see that Loughner, who was an independent left-leaning voter, was not influenced by "Palin's map" (which it is highly unlikely he had ever seen) or Palin herself.  That did not stop the media's descent into one of the most shameful episodes in history.

    At the 'New York Daily News' Michael Daly had an article out with this headline: "Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' blood is on Sarah Palin's hands after putting cross hair over district[.]"  After accusing Palin of putting Giffords "in cross hairs of a rifle scope," Daly ranted that "anyone with any sense at all knows that violent language can incite actual violence, that metaphor can incite murder. 



    At the very least, Palin added to a climate of violence."  This disgusting linkage, which had no basis in fact whatsoever as respects Loughner, was taken up, amongst many others, by the very odd Andrew Sullivan, Dem Congressman Grijalva, Eugene Robinson, Matt Yglesias and here and Paul Krugman.
    The media, the left bloggers, and the Democratic Party personnel jumped on the Palin accusation bandwagon, without any evidence of a direct link, for utterly partisan reasons.  Morality, truth, investigative journalism, personal scruples – all were buried in a hasty effort to damage the Tea Party, and most especially their hated opponent, Governor Palin.
    How have things turned out?  Moulitsas stands unapologetic, and he continues with its hate rants including blaming San Bernardino massacre on "The GOP" before it was known it was Muslim fanatics who did it. 


    Palin stands even more influential and powerful than ever, judged not least by her incredible endorsement success in the 2014 midterms.  

    Giffords, thankfully, recovered enough to make a valued public contribution, although her condition rendered her incapable of continuing her congressional career (her seat switched from Dem to the GOP in the midterms).  Daly and all the other Palin attackers just shut up shop in the Giffords connection score, but they carry on as if there had been no damage to their reputations – such as they are.
    Yet strong and respected conservative voices did challenge these liberals rush to judgement about the Giffords shooting –not only in the aftermath, but whenever leftist hypocrisy raises its head. 

    Among many who strongly objected to the witch hunt were Prof.William Jacobson ('Legal Insurrection')
    (Bob Belvedere at The Camp of The Saints ["Markos Moulitsas: Blood Libelist"] and Robert Stacy McCain at The Other McCain ["Mission Accomplished, Markos Moulitsas"]) 

    The tragic shooting of the two New York City policemen was just such a moment where the ethics and morality of the conservative voices and Governor Palin were raised, pointing out ("Hot Air") the blatant hypocrisy

    Mollie Hemingway at The Federalist reviewed the two instances and excoriated the leftist media for their unwarranted attacks on Palin while calling for balance in the future.  That certainly is fair, but at the same time, the pit of hell that the media and many on the left fell into in their unreasoned and unreasonable blame game toward Governor Palin should never be forgotten. This shameful episode should be raised whenever – sadly, since the deranged are always with us – such events occur again.

    SEE ALSO;
    James Joyner at "Outside The Beltway"

    "Palin ‘Target’ Graphic in Perspective"


    Doug Mataconis at Outside The Beltway

    “Heated Political Rhetoric” And The Giffords Shooting"

    and 

    "Political Rhetoric You Disagree With Isn’t Responsible For Someone Else’s Criminal Acts"


    Rick Moran at American Thinker

    From Mediaite:
    The website Daily Kos has also deleted a diary about Rep. Gabrielle Giffords entitled “”My Congresswoman Voted Against Pelosi, Now She’s Dead To Me,” but so far has not deleted a post by founderMarkos Moulitsas that lists Giffords’ district among those on their “target list,” and noted that “Not all of these people will get or even deserve primaries, but this vote certainly puts a bulls eye on their district.” (emphasis ours).
    Moulitsas also used the occasion of the tragedy to work in a Twitter plug for his book, “American Taliban.”




















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    Wednesday, January 6, 2016

    Has Trump Ruled Out Cruz As VP By Raising Constitutional Eligibility?

    Update; It couldn't be clearer that Trump's point about needless uncertainty is valid;

    "John McCain: 

    Ted Cruz's citizenship is "worth looking into"


    Trump said in an interview with The Washington Post that Republican voters should think twice before voting for Cruz, who could face challenges to his eligibility to serve as president given that he was born in Canada, and not the United States.
    "Republicans are going to have to ask themselves the question: 'Do we want a candidate who could be tied up in court for two years?' That'd be a big problem," Trump said in the interview. "It'd be a very precarious one for Republicans because he'd be running and the courts may take a long time to make decision. You don't want to be running and have that kind of thing over your head."


    I'm not going to get into whether or not Senator Cruz has Constitutional eligibility to assume the office of president of the United States. Some have argue the matter is settled in Cruz's favor, others, vehemently say no.

    Because there is this difference of opinion the fundamental core of what Donald Trump stated in respect of Cruz's eligibility is correct. That is, the matter in respect of Cruz, or any other presidential candidate, has not been argued before the Supreme Court.

    That fact leaves the matter open to being presented to the court, as Democratic Congressman and Florida senate candidate Alan Grayson advises he would do:

    Florida Congressman Alan Grayson told radio host Alan Colmes Wednesday that if Ted Cruz is elected president, he “will file that beautiful lawsuit saying that he’s unqualified for the job” according to the Constitution.

    It is also how Vermont man H. Brooke Paige  will attend to the matter (and for Rubio and Jindal too);

    Vermont ballot eligibility challenge, Ted Cruz Rubio and Jindal not natural born citizens,H. Brooke Paige v State of Vermont Secretary of State James Condos, Complaint filed December 9, 2015
    “According to the  US Citizenship and Immigration Services Ted Cruz was not a US citizen at birth and consequently not a natural born citizen.”
    Trump's comments point to the seemingly indisputable fact that if Senator Cruz won the nomination,and subsequently the presidency, during each stage his campaign would be subject to endless distraction and doubt. 

    On the other hand if Cruz was the vice-presidential candidate the focus on Trump as the presidential candidate would be constantly muddled and muddied as the Democrat's would charge that "if something happened to 'Calgary Ted" then he would be an illegitimate president and the country would be thrown into chaos etc. 

    These are, in my opinion, valid points if raised given the still debatable nature of Cruz's eligibility by the Supreme Court. There can be 1000 opinions in the media/Blogs and by learned academics but they don't, in the end, matter if the situation requires a Constitutional decision.

    It doesn't matter if such headlines as below appear and if Trump's own statements over time are open to interpretation. All that does is make absolutely clear the situation has not been clarified and will continue on as a distraction-at least.

    "Donald Trump Has Now Flip-Flopped Twice on Ted Cruz’s Eligibility"


    In an unrelated matter to eligibility Trump made this statement in New Hampshire which  Don Lemon at CNN presented; 

    "The day a POLITICIAN gets elected all he cares about is his next run and keeping those people happy"

    Cruz is "a politician," a senator no matter how he presents himself as an outsider. As such, if the clear message of Trump's statement is applied to a possible Cruz candidacy, it seems to disqualify him.

    Tuesday, January 5, 2016

    UPDATE;Trump Huge New Hampshire lead;First Nationwide Polls Of 2016 Has Donald Trump Crushing All Opposition

    Update;The Cruz stall and Trump lead continues;

    Trump Maintains Lead in NH; Dem Race Close

    PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds Donald Trump leading in the state by 14 points. Trump's position in the state has been steady over the last three months- we found him at 28% in mid-October, 27% in early December, and we find him at 29% this month. 5 other candidates are in double digits but pretty closely clustered and all well behind Trump- Marco Rubio at 15%, Chris Christie and John Kasich at 11%, and Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz at 10%. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina at 4%, Rand Paul at 3%, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum at 1%, and Jim Gilmore with less than 1% round out the field. 
    This is a decline of 3 points for Cruz-when he should be "surging" whilst Trump rises 2 points


    The first nationwide polls have come out and the trends of late 2015 are not only reinforced they seem set in concrete. Further my analysis that Senator Cruz has either declined or come to a halt appears to be further confirmed.

    In the Huffington Post 5 Day Poll Tracker Donald Trump breaks through the 40% barrier to 41.7%




    On New Years Day to which a bit of latitude could be added perhaps for enthusiasm Trump hit 48%!


    In fact at one point Trump hit 58%!


    Speaking of enthusiasm this put the lie to pundits meme "Trump's support is soft"


    But as always it is the cumulative trend that counts and the average over time graph tells the best story



    In a standard poll The latest NBC Survey Monkey Poll has Trump at 35% which is right within the cumulative average. Senator Cruz is at 18% which is about where he was at the close of the year and certainly he is showing no significant upwards momentum since his initial rise after Carson collapsed
    Cruz was on 18% on December 17 and he is on 18%
    today