Monday, September 15, 2014

Senate Polls Portend Bad News For GOP's 2016 Presidential Run

ALSO AT "AMERICAN THINKER" LINK

Electoral-Vote.com the site that gives an analysis of political races based on the "poll of the day" (or an aggregate of polls if more than one for a particular race comes out on the same day) has good news for the GOP. Its current map for the senate has the Republicans up 51 to the Dem's 48, with Kansas "tied" (which is how they get around having an independent in the lead there at the moment.) FIGURE 1


Clearly the good news for the GOP is that even with, the probably unlikely, loss of Kansas they still would win the senate with 51 seats (they need 51 as a tie would see VP Biden give the casting vote for the administration. The site map shows that on current polling the southern states of Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina would be won by Republican challengers. With Alaska returning to its tradition conservative fold, and Kansas back where it has been since the 1920's, the GOP can afford to lose one of the southern states, North Carolina for instance and still have the majority.

That southern states and Alaska, all of which,except NC, were won by McCain and Romney with substantial margins, should swing back to the Republicans in these second term mid-terms when the sitting president is unpopular to say the least is hardly a mystery. That the current polling shows the GOP candidates leads as very slim, and in some instances disappearing now and then, under the substantially propitious political environment is a cause for concern no doubt, but the picture for 2016 can be considered as very bleak.

Electoral-Vote.com's senate seat apportionment based on up to the minute polling sees Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota as solidly blue. These states had good to large margins for President Obama in 2008 and 2012 and they could be considered as long shots regardless of the political climate.

That being said, there must be a degree of disappointment that, at present, the GOP candidates aren't making much of a fight of it in these states. Of course anything is possible, and if the pollsters have got their calculations for Republican turnout and enthusiasm and Democratic stay at home and disillusion wrong, or if there is some October surprise of a negative nature then any of these states, except for Virginia, might tip into the GOP's hands-but they are not needed at the moment.

The problem for the GOP going forward is the polling in Iowa and Colorado. Electoral-Vote.com and Real Clear Politics has them both in the blue column-Colorado is also in the Dem's column in the governors race. Not by much but, given the current climate it might well be expected they too would be marginally Republican.

Looking at the Electoral College map for 2016 if Virginia, which has gone Democratic twice in a row, quite comfortably actually, Colorado and Iowa vote blue then there appears no path to 270 electoral votes needed for a GOP win even if they regain Florida and Ohio. In fact, even if the Republicans win Virginia they would still need either Iowa or Colorado to get to 270 as the map at  270ToWin shows. Being behind in these three states at present portends disaster frankly and running another "Establishment" candidate, when three of such out of the last four have lost, doesn't seem a remedy. FIGURE 2

Perhaps it is time for the Republicans to run a grass roots candidate who can rouse the millions of conservatives who have stayed home, especially if Hillary runs. In what manner another centrist candidate can motivate the base and overturn the trends to the Dem's in these three crucial states is not easy to fathom. 


If however the establishment persist in running such candidates the only remedy, apart for an economic collapse which nobody wants, is to wait until the next census. At that point the drift to the south which gave the GOP extra electoral votes in 2012 would see them get past 270 (if they win Florida/Virginia/Ohio of course) without Iowa and Colorado. 

If Virginia is solidly in the Dem's column it may take many such mathematical and population drift arrangements by which time the GOP may have folded their tents. The choice is up to the Establishment or, a consummation devoutly to be wished, the rank and file in the primary season.

                                                        FIGURE 1

FIGURE 2



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