Monday, November 17, 2014

Michigan Legislature May Hand the 2016 Presidential Election To The GOP

UPDATE:Proposed legislation is still a possibility:
"ELECTORAL COLLEGE: Lund’s proposal to divide Michigan’s electoral college votes in presidential elections appears to be stuck in committee, where it has faced significant opposition during public testimony.
Lund and Committee Chair Lisa Lyons, R-Alto, have both downplayed the negative response and sidestepped questions over whether the bill has died for the year.
“It’s lame-duck,” Lyons said Tuesday, suggesting anything could still happen. “I haven’t decided whether we’ll vote or not.” LINK



This article is also at AMERICAN THINKER under the title "Michigan Demonstrates Why Elections Matter"


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Michigan Legislature May Hand the GOP The 2016 Presidential Election Next Week



A GOP legislator, State Rep. Pete Lund, is introducing a bill to move Michigan's 16 Electoral College votes to a proportional basis instead of the current winner take all (Lansing State Journal)


This has, rightly from their point of view, set off alarm bell at the likes of "progressive" site Daily Kos who see the possibility of the 2016 presidential election slipping away-although "rigged"  is how they describe it. On the other hand it was that site which advised that the Black Dem's crossover vote in Mississippi's GOP runoff to defeat the conservative Republican McDaniel (who came first in the primary) was "democracy."
 They selectively rail re; the
(Constitutional Article 2 Section 1) Michigan move to proportional EC vote  as "undemocratic" now.  The United States Constitution allows each state to determine how electoral votes are proportioned-Maine and Nebraska do it by congressional district won for example.


The Democratic party has won Michigan  by an average of 53% over the last five elections . Under the proposed change however, instead of giving the Dem's all 16 Electoral College votes, the split would be 11 to the Democrats and  5 to the Republicans under the new law.


If the law passes, and Michigan's vote in 2016 stays within historic bounds, it gives the GOP the equivalent of another Nebraska which has 5 EC votes which could be vital in a close race.As set out in an
 Electoral College analysis  based on the GOP's mid-term's senate victories, the Republicans are very much in the hunt for 2016. 


However, even with this best case scenario if the Dem's win Virginia for the third consecutive time they would win the White House, just, by one vote. If the proposed Michigan revamp passes the GOP would still have enough electoral College votes to win. In fact they would only need one more EC vote to take them to 269, a tie, at which point the Republican House would choose the president and the senate the vice-president

This possibility underscores the, perhaps, far more vital Republican  mid-term wins in key governorship like Florida and Michigan.

All pundits eyes should be on the Michigan legislature whose voting reforms may determine the presidential race for the entire USA. If the bill passes it may also have bearing on who the GOP's vice-presidential nominee is as the closer the Republican vote is to a 50/50 split the better the GOP's Electoral chances are.
For perhaps the first time a VP nominee doesn't have to deliver their state (which rarely happens anyway) just narrow the loss. Michigan Governor Snyder was re-elected with, from an near ideal result for the GOP 50.9% of the vote.



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