Saturday, August 19, 2017

Media's Fight Not vs.Trump It's To Discourage Rust Belt Voters

A version of this article first appeared at C4P 

The MSM's never ending anti-Trump crusade is in reality not against President Trump as the reality is he can't be "defeated" barring impeachment for which there is no sane reason to imagine exists.

The media onslaught, the Democratic party being a powerless bystander using it's ally to fight its battles, has one ultimate aim and that is to disillusion the 2016 Trump voters in the erstwhile "Democratic blue wall." 

The real world political fight as far as the presidency is concerned is in the Electoral College battleground states. The stark reality is, given the vast majority of states nearly always vote the same way, is that Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and of course Florida will decide the presidency.

In 2016 Donald Trump won them all and if the forces that brought him those wins continue as before then the Democratic Party is in dire straights. Trump's opponents complain "he only won by small margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin" disregarding the massive deficit he had to make up to win those states. Further it is the trends going forwards that matter.

If the huge mountain Trump climbed marked a permanent shift in voters allegiances in those states it may well be that his margins were a base which will be added to ensuring those states move to purple if not red. This is predicated on a number of factors.

It is clear that African Americans not turning out in Michigan and to a lesser extent in Wisconsin cost Clinton both states.

This could signal a return to the pre-Obama election norm or, more dangerous for the Dem's a further shift in Black support for the GOP (Trump did better than Romney with that grouping) which would be accelerated if economic prospects, which are currently at an all time low for Black unemployment improve further. Trump is, of course, quite correct in stating that a major cure for racism is jobs which is why he was pilloried by the fearful Dem's.

More worrying for the Dem's is that in Pennsylvania the Black turnout in crucial Philadelphia was actually as good as President Obama's in 2012. This is the crucial element behind the MSM's attacks on Trump. White turnout in Pennsylvania, especially in the rural areas was massive. Hillary's state vote was down only 64 thousand from 2012 but Trump's was up a massive 290 thousand given Trump a 46 thousand vote win.

The GOP can afford to lose both Wisconsin and Michigan but by holding Pennsylvania, and of course Florida, could still win comfortably in the Electoral College. If the rust belt held in its entirety and demographics put Florida out of reach the GOP would still win.

These electoral facts explain the seemingly ridiculous "Russiagate" fantasies which appear to have miraculously vanished, the preposterous charges of "racism" against Trump, the refusal to credit his administration with any positive results while the economy picks up steam, the share market climbed to new heights and industry looks to relocate back to the USA. Any internal administration personality conflict or change of personnel is dwelt on as if it were crucial to real folks lives and concerns.

The fact this media onslaught acts as a bandage to the Democratic party's utter lack of leadership, policy and constructive activity is neither her nor there as was shown in the Dem's losses, especially in Georgia in the congressional special elections. The Dem's do not have to do anything to win the presidency in 2020 if the GOP base who turned out in exceptional numbers get disheartened and stay home as they did for Romney and McCain.

For all the nine months of media attacks the base, as far as can be determined by attendance at Trump's rallies where plain folks, again, wait for hours in line to get in is steadfast. 

This is still a source of amazement to the few intrepid DC journalists who venture out to to flyover country who still have not learned the lessons of 2016. The touted "polls' with their Dem bias average Trump around 40% with the usual ups and downs which is where he was (actually slightly better) on election day.

As things stand the Democrat's have nothing to offer except opposition and there only hope is that the same media who utterly failed them will by their attacks on Trump, and through Trump his base will succeed in alienating the very voters whose dislike for the media elite is only matched by that elites dislike for them.

If the Democratic party fails in the mid-terms they are in profound difficulties and a massive introspection which must surely consider discarding the media tactics must follow or banishment to the coasts on a permanent basis is in store

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