Saturday, July 30, 2016

Green's Jill Stein Under Attack; Here's Why In (UPDATED) Four Polls

UPDATE 3 YouGov Poll Sept 6 Stein 5%
4 from Hillary 1 from Trump




UPDATE 2;
"Stein 4%" trending on Twitter as "progressive" sites (Wonkette/Daily Kos) ramp up the attacks on her as she is perceived as a threat to Hillary.

Another 4 points from Hillary to Stein and Trump would not need Pennsylvania. Revenge is best served cold


UPDATE; Exactly as I predicted;
From: PPD Poll.

Perhaps the biggest story regarding the post convention polling data is the shift toward Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein On July 19, the first day of the Republican convention, Gov. Johnson enjoyed roughly 9% support in the 4-way matchup, and Dr. Stein was polling at an usually high 3% (her support has ranged from 1% to 3%). Now, no doubt a result of the embarrassing WikiLeak release of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee, Dr. Stein has increased to her highest level of support to date (4.3%)
Donald Trump holds a roughly 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton two days after the Democratic National Convention. The People’s Pundit Daily Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll findsMr. Trump at 47.6% to 42.1% for Mrs. Clinton, a lead that is largely fueled by a greater consolidation of the Republican base and a lead among independent voters.
*******************************************************************

This is the result for the Green Party and their presidential candidate Dr.Jill Stein in the 2012 presidential election;
Jill Ellen SteinGreenMassachusetts469,6270.36%
Clearly the Greens and Dr.Stein had no effect whatsoever on the election which President Obama won by 5 million votes. Given that the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had the blessing of President Obama at the just concluded DNC and she presented her acceptance speech as the continuation of a successful, in her eyes, 8 years then it would be surprising if Dr. Stein and the Green's would be of the slightest concern.

Especially as the message from the DNC was that the party is absolutely united (notwithstanding the walk outs and mass demonstration by Bernie Sanders erstwhile supporters.) Further, the media both left and embittered right see Hillary winning "in a landslide."

OK, lets return to the real world.

It is rare in modern times for a party to win three elections in a row outside of wartime. Only G.W.H Bush managed it, after being 16 points behind in election year by having Michael Dukakis, one of the most inept campaigners in history, as his opponent. Even Al Gore couldn't manage it although America was in a highly prosperous period. Thus for Hillary to have a cake walk is, as even ultra-leftist "guru" Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.Com  admits, unlikely.

If Trump holds the "Romney states" and picks up Pennsylvania and Ohio, both "rust belt states" which Trump has particular appeal to, or New Hampshire/Ohio/Iowa/Nevada he will win. It is no coincidence that Clinton's first campaign stops after the DNC are in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
All these states are currently within the margin of error in aggregate polling.

In head to head polling between Clinton and Trump (notwithstanding the admittedly distorted in Clinton's favor IPSOS/Reuters poll being included) they are exactly tied;


But when Libertarian Party Johnson and Green's Stein are included Trump is ahead


This is a 2.64 point increase for Stein over her 2012 result. There can be little doubt that this increase is coming from dissatisfied Sanders voters and if it solidifies or even increases the threat to Hillary in a close election is manifest. Johnson's support is coming from both Trump and Hillary with a little more from Trump via the "Never Trump" dead-enders.

 It is to be expected that third/fourth party poll support drops off as voters have to make a choice, in reality, between the top two candidates and I would expect a solid number of recalcitrant Republicans to desert Johnson in the polling booth when the choice is a leftist supreme court or Trump.

However the Sanders supporters who have cast their lot with Green are highly unlikely to switch to Clinton on election day. Thus in a close election Stein could be the Dem's worst "Nader" nightmare in battleground states, especially New Hampshire, and the one congressional district (electoral college) in Maine where Trump currently leads.

This would explain the commencement of attacks on Stein by Dem's (paid I don't have the slightest doubt) that have appeared on Twitter, at least. Using the convenience of Sarah Palin's timeline (the usual repository for Dem attacks on any conservative female, and now Stein, with "she's another Palin.")

What is of particular interest is that Twitter itself has, for no apparent reason put an anti-Stein post as the header in the Palin timeline. This is the first sign that Clinton's internal polls must be showing some bleeding to Stein which will be a very real problem for Hillary. 

One can have a great deal of sympathy for Dr. Stein who has never experienced the full "Palinization" that the MSM/Hate bloggers and Democratic party can dish out but if such bullying takes place the Sanders supporters may be even further encouraged to support Green as a victim, like them of the establishments venom.








Friday, July 29, 2016

Trump's Post Convention Week "Bounce" Was 7.2%






Using the USC/LATimes daily tracking poll which is the only poll publishing daily results the RNC results were as follows;


Republican National Convention July 18-21

Seven day post convention July 22nd to July 28th (DNC ran July 25-28)

Trump's poll July 22nd (one day post convention) was        44.2%

Trump's peak poll July 27th                                                      47.4%   +3.2 points (7.20%)

Trump's final week poll day July 28th                                    46.7%   +2.5 points (5.88%)

LINK TO POLL

Thursday, July 28, 2016

After Hillary, A Reminder Of What Truly Great Acceptance Speech Looks Like

The Tragedy Of The Betrayal Of Sanders Supporters And A Trumpian Remedy

I can write of the tragedy of the betrayal of Sanders supporters with empathy as as they are now I once was as the blog title clearly advises. 

I voted for McGovern, who makes Sanders look like Reagan and Clinton twice, I edited a radical, youth orientated magazine and was decidedly socialist in outlook.

Over the years I have seen politicians, endlessly, betray the voters who elected them as they embarked on a course of policies at total divergence from those they were elected on, and which their various political parties stood for, but have never witnessed such a betrayal by a politician before they were elected which is, I believe, unprecedented.

Whilst I of course don't support all the remedies that Sanders offered for the current ills I do support his followers earnest desires to have those ills remedied. I further believe that, if they reflected, his supporters, perhaps in a large part, may come to view that Trump's basic remedy of a return to employment as the best social beneficial treatment has value and that Hillary Clinton is not the best person to redeem America.

The actions of Sanders voters both inside and outside the DNC would seem to concur with the Clinton aspect, at least, as do the many statements of support for Trump by previous Sanders voters.

For Sanders supporters who worked tirelessly and endlessly on his behalf the vision of him endorsing, nominating and utterly caving in to her and the Democratic party, whose nominee is a creature of Wall St. then driving off in his shiny new car must be galling. 

I am not going to pontificate about "putting one's faith in princes" or the naivety of youth as such "naivety" in an honestly held belief is admirable.

What is not admirable is the blatant use of such emotions and the discarding of those who hold them in a callous and self-serving manner the likes of which have never been seen before.

The energy of youth and the dedication of older folk who desire change is still there although the holders of such are, understandable, crestfallen. I would echo Trump's call of the hand of friendship to those who seek change and advise that in my opinion the Trump mechanism would not be perhaps even 50% of what they wish but change, untied to Wall St. would come.

Not voting or voting for Johnson is a vote for Hillary. A vote for Stein in a solid blue state is a vote against Hillary and a vote for Trump in a marginal state is a vote against Hillary and a remedy for the Sanders betrayal. 

If Trump is elected Sanders supporters can value the defeat of the Hillary/Sanders axis, enjoy the push back to Wall St. and the establishment and work subsequently to have their own candidate run in 2020.




Monday, July 25, 2016

Major Article By Governor Palin;"We Need To Be Better, Not Bitter"

Via Independent Journal
Getty - Aaron P. Bernstein
Independent Journal Opinion is an opinion platform and any opinions or information put forth by contributors are exclusive to them and do not represent Independent Journal.
With Donald Trump securing the presidential nomination, the political narrative is shifting rapidly and revealingly. As you watch former haters hop aboard the Trump Train, it’s important to connect dots and understand my concern about a bunch of belated mea culpas with which we’ll now be inundated.
It’s important because time is short and lessons must be learned to avoid future catastrophic capture by status quo politicos.
Friends, my concern here is all about the attempted destruction of Trump SUPPORTERS over all these months. I’ve zipped my lips long enough; it’s time to call out those who’ve tried to destroy you.
Personally, since endorsing Trump, my family and I haven’t seen the level of hate and vitriol spewed our way since the 2008 McCain/Palin campaign. It’s been hellish. (Forgive my preaching to the choir though, as so many Trump supporters – and of course Trump himself – have been put through hell as well. And he ain’t seen ‘nuthin yet.)
From fair-weather friends and “supporters” turning decisively away in the meanest of ways, to me losing jobs – literally – the moment my support for Trump was made public, we sucked it up and hung on to hope that vindication was around the corner. I was told – for the umpteenth time – my career was over for “going rogue” this election cycle.
But the more people realize dirtiness on both sides of the aisle won’t be sanitized by today’s typical politicians, and the clearer voters see the ONLY candidate necessarily enlarging the tent with previously ignored patriots, and the smarter everyone gets about how to restore American exceptionalism, well…the more obvious the reason for sticking the ol’ neck out again early on.
Exposing political games and connections that hurt the innocent was the early battle. Now we move down the battlefield to hold culprits accountable so they won’t be rewarded with opportunity to keep screwing you, America. It’s how we win the war for our nation’s solvency, sovereignty and security.
I’ve said for years that nefarious politicos and their media lapdogs don’t really care which party wins elections – to them this is all just a money-making scheme. Politics are just business. As long as they get to keep their titles, ratings, power, and purses full, they ignore the will of the people by unemploying commonsense solutions to America’s challenges. I thank God enough primary election voters screamed, “Enough! The status quo has got to go!” and took up proverbial arms to throw the bums out. And the revolution has just begun.
Conveniently, oppressors of this nationalist revolution found a way to save face. The obvious wall-writing told them they’d lose money and influence if they continued fighting AGAINST the majority, so the donor classscattered from their polarizing candidate when Ted Cruz’s suicide vest detonated at the GOP convention.
The collateral damage is too much for them to survive; it’s shaking hell right out of their piggy banks. It wasn’t cool then to wage war against the permanent political class that’s essentially throwing in for Hillary Clinton, but after the Cruz implosion they have an excuse to come around.
They’ll never give you credit for being right, Trump Train engineers, because we’re still just peon passengers to them, but they’d like to join you now at the cool kids table. Just remember it’s YOUR table, patriots. YOU set it. They’d better behave as your guests.
I’ve been asked all year questions like why it seems I’m “relegated” to outsider status of current political machines; why there’s no longer a seat at the talking heads TV table; why’d previous “friends” commence public condemnation of me despite me never changing my values, priorities or loyalties to the right causes. The question is suggested, “Don’t you know if you just go along to get along you’d be in the big shots’ good graces?”
The answer is obvious as more dots get connected during this election season’s fall out.
The shifting and sifting you’ll see explains what goes on inside their grimy games. What’s left intact are lessons in how to survive, not how to make friends. For me, it’s all continued confirmation to never put my hope and faith in the political arena; instead I’ll be productive by choosing God and family to give me validation, definition and joy.
A significant exposition is the billionaire Mercer family’s financial ties to Cruz, his SuperPACs, think tanks, media outlets, and donor class hanger-oners like Glenn Beck, which will explain why guys (like Mercer-affiliated Beck) did a 180 on me – and you – with inexplicable personal attacks to invalidate us. The inconsistencies and random attacks they engaged in have been so, well, RANDOM that was hard not to giggle publicly at their bizarreness.
Beck and his ilk showed they don’t oppose politics of personal destruction they used to rail against with lip service. They actually participate in Alinsky-like tactics that make the rest of us gag at typical political shenanigans.
So now we must rise to the challenge of becoming better, not bitter, in the midst of what the obstructionists tried to do. You who knew we needed a revolution ignored the haters to find a revolutionary, and we nominated him to help make America great again. Now, validated, productive, joyful people will get our messenger over the finish line so we can begin the fight to restore America.