Saturday, July 30, 2016

Green's Jill Stein Under Attack; Here's Why In (UPDATED) Four Polls

UPDATE 3 YouGov Poll Sept 6 Stein 5%
4 from Hillary 1 from Trump

"Stein 4%" trending on Twitter as "progressive" sites (Wonkette/Daily Kos) ramp up the attacks on her as she is perceived as a threat to Hillary.

Another 4 points from Hillary to Stein and Trump would not need Pennsylvania. Revenge is best served cold

UPDATE; Exactly as I predicted;
From: PPD Poll.

Perhaps the biggest story regarding the post convention polling data is the shift toward Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein On July 19, the first day of the Republican convention, Gov. Johnson enjoyed roughly 9% support in the 4-way matchup, and Dr. Stein was polling at an usually high 3% (her support has ranged from 1% to 3%). Now, no doubt a result of the embarrassing WikiLeak release of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee, Dr. Stein has increased to her highest level of support to date (4.3%)
Donald Trump holds a roughly 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton two days after the Democratic National Convention. The People’s Pundit Daily Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll findsMr. Trump at 47.6% to 42.1% for Mrs. Clinton, a lead that is largely fueled by a greater consolidation of the Republican base and a lead among independent voters.

This is the result for the Green Party and their presidential candidate Dr.Jill Stein in the 2012 presidential election;
Jill Ellen SteinGreenMassachusetts469,6270.36%
Clearly the Greens and Dr.Stein had no effect whatsoever on the election which President Obama won by 5 million votes. Given that the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had the blessing of President Obama at the just concluded DNC and she presented her acceptance speech as the continuation of a successful, in her eyes, 8 years then it would be surprising if Dr. Stein and the Green's would be of the slightest concern.

Especially as the message from the DNC was that the party is absolutely united (notwithstanding the walk outs and mass demonstration by Bernie Sanders erstwhile supporters.) Further, the media both left and embittered right see Hillary winning "in a landslide."

OK, lets return to the real world.

It is rare in modern times for a party to win three elections in a row outside of wartime. Only G.W.H Bush managed it, after being 16 points behind in election year by having Michael Dukakis, one of the most inept campaigners in history, as his opponent. Even Al Gore couldn't manage it although America was in a highly prosperous period. Thus for Hillary to have a cake walk is, as even ultra-leftist "guru" Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.Com  admits, unlikely.

If Trump holds the "Romney states" and picks up Pennsylvania and Ohio, both "rust belt states" which Trump has particular appeal to, or New Hampshire/Ohio/Iowa/Nevada he will win. It is no coincidence that Clinton's first campaign stops after the DNC are in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
All these states are currently within the margin of error in aggregate polling.

In head to head polling between Clinton and Trump (notwithstanding the admittedly distorted in Clinton's favor IPSOS/Reuters poll being included) they are exactly tied;

But when Libertarian Party Johnson and Green's Stein are included Trump is ahead

This is a 2.64 point increase for Stein over her 2012 result. There can be little doubt that this increase is coming from dissatisfied Sanders voters and if it solidifies or even increases the threat to Hillary in a close election is manifest. Johnson's support is coming from both Trump and Hillary with a little more from Trump via the "Never Trump" dead-enders.

 It is to be expected that third/fourth party poll support drops off as voters have to make a choice, in reality, between the top two candidates and I would expect a solid number of recalcitrant Republicans to desert Johnson in the polling booth when the choice is a leftist supreme court or Trump.

However the Sanders supporters who have cast their lot with Green are highly unlikely to switch to Clinton on election day. Thus in a close election Stein could be the Dem's worst "Nader" nightmare in battleground states, especially New Hampshire, and the one congressional district (electoral college) in Maine where Trump currently leads.

This would explain the commencement of attacks on Stein by Dem's (paid I don't have the slightest doubt) that have appeared on Twitter, at least. Using the convenience of Sarah Palin's timeline (the usual repository for Dem attacks on any conservative female, and now Stein, with "she's another Palin.")

What is of particular interest is that Twitter itself has, for no apparent reason put an anti-Stein post as the header in the Palin timeline. This is the first sign that Clinton's internal polls must be showing some bleeding to Stein which will be a very real problem for Hillary. 

One can have a great deal of sympathy for Dr. Stein who has never experienced the full "Palinization" that the MSM/Hate bloggers and Democratic party can dish out but if such bullying takes place the Sanders supporters may be even further encouraged to support Green as a victim, like them of the establishments venom.

No comments: