Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
What The Pundits (Silver/Wang Etc) Predicted,What M.Joseph Sheppard Predicted And What Happened
Here are the final Electoral College predictions from the former "Pundit Guru's" and Polling sites;
First here was mine
Today In The Aggregate Of State Polls Donald Trump Would Be Elected President
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HuffPost Forecasts Hillary Clinton Will Win With 323 Electoral Votes
Democrats stand a strong chance of taking control of the Senate as well.
The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.
Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215.
Dr.Sam Wang Princeton Election Consortium (Ex radical leftist-Daily Kos)
The MSM's Gurur Nate Silver (Also ex-Daily Kos) and as ususal giving himself wiggle room
Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
Monday, November 7, 2016
Today In The Aggregate Of State Polls Donald Trump Would Be Elected President
And there it is. After a bruising campaign with almost the entire media from left and "conservative" right against him Donald Trump has taken a lead in the Electoral College for the first time.
In the Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls in the battleground states Trump has reached the required 270 Electoral College votes to be elected president should these results be translated into the actual results.
In point of fact Trump could lose the one vote from Maine's CD and a 269/269 tie would still see him as president under the Constitution where the House chooses the winner at that point.
Each state would have one vote in the House based on the majority vote of its congressional delegations (33 to 17 with only 26 needed) i.e. New York would have one vote and so would Idaho.
Since the GOP controls the majority of state delegations Trump would be chosen. The Senate would choose the vice-president, presumably Pence even if the Dem's held a majority there as would seem sensible.
Here are the battleground states aggregate leads for Trump as of this writing. Of course any additional states won, e.g. Pennsylvania or Michigan, would then see landslide territory approached-but, these will do.
Florida is effectively tied in the aggregate. Based on the unprecedented early vote lead over Romney's result in 2012 (and the final Axion Trump +3 poll which has not been included) in actual voting I am calling it for Trump.
I refuse to accept the ridiculous last minute WMUR "Clinton +11 "poll" so this is the last aggregate IMO
The "Comey Effect" Myth; There Never Was Any Poll Impact By The Comey Report
The Comey report, which exercised so much media and DNC angst and much Republican jubilation because of the suspected massive "October surprise" effect on the polls and the campaigns, turns out to be, yet another, campaign myth.
It may have been an"October surprise" but a very damp squib of one in the end
Such luminaries as Cher tweeted that, since Clinton was exonerated, as she and no doubt countless Democratic supporters see it, Comey "may have cost Clinton the election."
If Trump does win no doubt these same voices will claim it is a 'stolen election caused by a Republican (such as Comey is) conspiracy and use it as a stick to beat the Trump administration for four years.
However lets look at the actual facts;
Clinton took over the lead from Trump in the aggregate of five tracking polls on October 24th. I do not consider the MSM "one off" polls in this exercise because of the outlandish Democratic sampling advantage nor the preposterous Reuters "poll" and, until they fixed it 10/31, the ABC Washington Post Tracker (the sixth tracker from then) with it's prior and ludicrous "Clinton+12" results.
Clinton's highest aggregate was 0.7 10/26-27, pre-Comey, and her decline clearly started after that. On 10/29, a day after Comey she went up in some polls and down in others.
The only subsequent day where there was any measurable change in Clinton's aggregate polling was 10/31 where she was down 1.6 points behind Trump which could easily be just polling noise which seems clear as being the case by her being only 0.7 down the next day.
By 11/4 Clinton and Trump are in a dead tie, including the ABC/WashPost tracker which seems determined to boost her again, coming in at Clinton+5 from being tied on 10/31. As with aggregation this is balanced out by the USC/LATimes boosting Trump by 5.4 points.
So for all the furor, cries of bias and cheating Clinton was ahead on 10/28 by 0.3 she's tied on 11/4 a decline of 0.4 points.
That Trump has moved into the lead in a number of key states and the "one of polls have tightened to have Clinton with a 1-2 point aggregate lead reflects voters making up their own minds without due influence from Comey.
Comey, in the end, appears to have simply reinforced anti-and pro Clinton camps views of her rather than changing minds and the non-trackers Clinton decline being due their changing the way they compute their polls "herding" to reflect reality rather than the bias their paymasters and/or their own ideology wish them to present.
NB; Rasmussen doesn't release polls on weekends
It may have been an"October surprise" but a very damp squib of one in the end
Such luminaries as Cher tweeted that, since Clinton was exonerated, as she and no doubt countless Democratic supporters see it, Comey "may have cost Clinton the election."
If Trump does win no doubt these same voices will claim it is a 'stolen election caused by a Republican (such as Comey is) conspiracy and use it as a stick to beat the Trump administration for four years.
However lets look at the actual facts;
Clinton took over the lead from Trump in the aggregate of five tracking polls on October 24th. I do not consider the MSM "one off" polls in this exercise because of the outlandish Democratic sampling advantage nor the preposterous Reuters "poll" and, until they fixed it 10/31, the ABC Washington Post Tracker (the sixth tracker from then) with it's prior and ludicrous "Clinton+12" results.
Clinton's highest aggregate was 0.7 10/26-27, pre-Comey, and her decline clearly started after that. On 10/29, a day after Comey she went up in some polls and down in others.
The only subsequent day where there was any measurable change in Clinton's aggregate polling was 10/31 where she was down 1.6 points behind Trump which could easily be just polling noise which seems clear as being the case by her being only 0.7 down the next day.
By 11/4 Clinton and Trump are in a dead tie, including the ABC/WashPost tracker which seems determined to boost her again, coming in at Clinton+5 from being tied on 10/31. As with aggregation this is balanced out by the USC/LATimes boosting Trump by 5.4 points.
So for all the furor, cries of bias and cheating Clinton was ahead on 10/28 by 0.3 she's tied on 11/4 a decline of 0.4 points.
That Trump has moved into the lead in a number of key states and the "one of polls have tightened to have Clinton with a 1-2 point aggregate lead reflects voters making up their own minds without due influence from Comey.
Comey, in the end, appears to have simply reinforced anti-and pro Clinton camps views of her rather than changing minds and the non-trackers Clinton decline being due their changing the way they compute their polls "herding" to reflect reality rather than the bias their paymasters and/or their own ideology wish them to present.
NB; Rasmussen doesn't release polls on weekends
Sunday, November 6, 2016
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