Monday, November 7, 2016

Today In The Aggregate Of State Polls Donald Trump Would Be Elected President

And there it is. After a bruising campaign with almost the entire media from left and "conservative" right against him Donald Trump has taken a lead in the Electoral College for the first time.

In the Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls in the battleground states Trump has reached the required 270 Electoral College votes to be elected president should these results be translated into the actual results.

In point of fact Trump could lose the one vote from Maine's CD and a 269/269 tie would still see him as president under the Constitution where the House chooses the winner at that point.

 Each state would have one vote in the House based on the majority vote of its congressional delegations (33 to 17 with only 26 needed) i.e. New York would have one vote and so would Idaho.

Since the GOP controls the majority of state delegations Trump would be chosen. The Senate would choose the vice-president, presumably Pence even if the Dem's held a majority there as would seem sensible.

Here are the battleground states aggregate leads for Trump as of this writing. Of course any additional states won, e.g. Pennsylvania or Michigan, would then see landslide territory approached-but, these will do.

Florida is effectively tied in the aggregate. Based on the unprecedented early vote lead over Romney's result in 2012 (and the final Axion Trump +3 poll which has not been included) in actual voting I am calling it for Trump.

   I refuse to accept the ridiculous last minute WMUR "Clinton +11 "poll" so this is the last aggregate IMO