Monday, December 15, 2014

" GOP Establishment’s Unarguable Choice For President/VP Romney/Sandoval (From The Camp Of The Saints)




The GOP Establishment's Unarguable Choice For President/VP Romney/Sandoval 

M.Joseph Sheppard

Lost in the whirlwind that was the Republican party's November tsunami was this obscure bulletin at"Ralston Reports"

"When I first wrote about Engage Nevada, I thought it would be a noble but probably futile effort by one of the state's premier operatives, Chris Carr.But after the smoke cleared Nov. 4, Carr's efforts had paid off in the most dramatic Republican sweep the state has seen.And the last filing of the year by the federal PAC for the "nonpartisan" 501c4 he set up shows who Carr encouraged to give money in the last month to ensure registration numbers were turned into voters. In late October, the PAC took in $200,000, with Gov. Brian Sandoval, Gondolier Numero Uno Sheldon Adelson and presidential hopeful past and maybe future Mitt Romney essentially giving all the money.

►Sandoval for Governor, $65,000 on 10/24 ($125,000 for the year)► Adelson, $75,000 on 10/23 (his only donation)► Restore Our Future (Romney's PAC), $50,000 on 10/21 (only one)►NV Jobs PAC, controlled by Sandoval aides, $10,000 on 10/30 (only one) A couple hundred grand in 10 days. Not bad."

Yes,certainly impressive funding but was this huge input of funds necessary to save Governor Sandoval from near defeat? Hardly. Here are the polls from Real Clear Politics for the Nevada governorship in the latter months of the campaign.








Clearly there was never a moment when Governor Sandoval was in any danger of losing whatsoever,never being ahead by less that 22 points and winning by an astonishing 46.7 points-so what was behind this scramble for such substantial sums for his campaign?

Consideration of the Electoral College map, and in particular the challenging road to the required 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, may give a clue. The GOP's 2016 presidential candidate must win Florida-lose that state with its substantial Hispanic population, and it's game over right from the start. Having a vice-presidential candidate of Hispanic heritage, as does Governor Sandoval who is of Mexican descent, would clearly not be an hindrance.

Once the hurdle of Florida has been overcome, which was only lost by less than 1 point in 2012, the much more severe challenge of Virginia and its 13 Electoral College votes comes into view.Virginia has swung to the Democrats twice as the northern part of the state has seen a substantial influx from the DC area. Losing Virginia would make the GOP's task extremely difficult, not only would they have to win the swing state of Ohio, but claw back both Iowa and Colorado which went for President Obama twice-but with those three states there is a path to victory and it is winning Nevada's six electoral votes.

Given that there was no need whatsoever to so substantially pour vast amounts of money into a campaign that was always going to win in a landslide the "long game" clearly indicates it might be money well spent.There is no question that Governor Sandoval has impressive aspects to offer the 2016 ticket. As mentioned, he is of Hispanic decent which could be vital in Florida,Colorado and of course his home state of Nevada-the loss of any one of which could doom the GOP to defeat. In a time when the electorate may have tired of senators with little or no management experience Sandoval can point to his state re-electing him with a massive majority. Further at a time,if current rends continue, the electorate is looking for fresh faces not connected with the current Congress Sandoval appears to carry no such baggage and is young and personable.

With former Governor and presidential candidate Mitt Romney currently doing the dance of the seven veils (Politico;"Backers,Romney More Open To 2016 Run" ) as the party (and media of course) turns its immediate attention to 2016, the fact that his PAC dumped such a huge amount of money into a race where it was not needed could indicate that the Romney team see the same scenario as I outline above.

It is a compelling message if framed as "Romney lost by a fraction in Florida and by a small margin in Ohio,given that he was right about President Obama and with Governor Sandoval as his VP running mate winning those two states, plus Sandoval's Nevada, would bring near certain victory in 2016". That Romney, Sheldon Adelson and the powers that be in Nevada appear to have considered this, in my opinion, is perhaps confirmed by the tried and true adage "follow the money."

Whether the primary season sees the rank and file wish to have a conservative as the nominee or former Governor Bush, or Governor Christie runs and splits the Establishment vote remains to be seen, but it would appear that significant Establishment leaders and money men may have made their choices for 2016 in October 2014.

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