Thursday, April 24, 2014

Astonishing Power of Sarah Palin Illustrated:Endorsed Candidate T W Shannon Gains 46 Points

Polling record: (Earliest: 1st Poll February 1)
Lankford  54% Shannon 18% Lankford +36 

(Palin endorses Shannon March 12th)
Lankford  37% Shannon 28% Lankford +  9
Shannon  42% Lankford 32% Shannon +10
Lankford  43% Shannon 33% Lankford +10
Lankford  33% Shannon 31% Lankford  +  2
Lankford  41% Shannon 34% Lankford   + 7
"Pro-Lankford Poll Showed 22% Lead"
Shannon  39% Lankford 37% Shannon     +2
Lankford 41%   Shannon 38%  Lankford + 3

and the final poll before the election with neither candidate winning the 50%+1 to avoid a run-off:

An early June internal poll from Lankford’s campaign showed him leading Shannon, 41 percent to 34 percent. That’s a slightly narrower lead than an internal poll from a month before, when Lankford led 43 percent to 33 percent.
The most recent surveys from Shannon’s supporters put him narrowly ahead of Lankford, 39 percent to 37 percent. But there’s a small shift from April, when a similar poll from the same pro-Shannon super PAC showed him ahead of Lankford, 42 percent to 32 percent.

Lankford was the beneficiary of contributions from several congressional colleagues
Rep. James Lankford headed into the final three weeks of the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary with more than double the cash on hand of his top opponent, state Speaker T.W. Shannon.
According to pre-primary reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission, Lankford had $732,000 in cash on hand as of June 4, while Shannon had $330,000.
The two candidates’ fundraising totals in the pre-primary period, which covers April 1 through June 4, were closer. Lankford  raised $847,000 and Shannon brought in $626,000. Lankford also outspent Shannon over that two-month period, spending $1.1 million to Shannon’s $798,000.


 Lankford entered the race when Coburn suddenly announced his retirement in January with a 37 point lead in the polls.

But Lankford's top challenger, former Oklahoma House Speaker T.W. Shannon, has made a surprisingly strong challenge, climbing from a huge deficit to run neck-and-neck with Lankford in polls from this spring.
Shannon served as the youngest Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives ever from 2012 to 2014. While there, he established a strong conservative record as a fiscal hawk, supporting efforts to eliminate the state's debt by selling off unused state assets. He has continued in his Senate campaign to support classic conservative positions.
Shannon's limited government message has garnered the support of a host of national Tea Party groups--including the Senate Conservatives Fund--as well as some high profile Tea Party favorite politicians. Sarah Palin, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz have all endorsed him.
Recent polls show Lanfkord and Shannon in a virtual tie--both poll in the mid thirties. Should neither candidate receive the 50 percent plus one required to win the June 24 primary outright, the top two candidates are expected to face off in an August runoff. A third candidate, former state Senator Randy Brogdon, is also on the ballot, but his support has dropped to single digits.
The Sooner Poll, conducted May 5 to May 8, showed Lankford leading Shannon by a 33 percent to 31 percent margin. With a sample size of 580 and a plus or minus four percent margin of error, the poll shows a virtual dead heat between the two.
On Wednesday, Sarah Palin said, "Grassroots commonsense conservatives can use this momentum [from the Dave Brat victory] to push good candidates like Chris McDaniel, T.W. Shannon, and Rob Maness to victory for America. These candidates are also being massively outspent by establishment candidates and they need our help and energy."
Jonathan Tobin 'Commentary' : “ She’s (Palin) yesterday’s news”...

Rebecca Schoenkopf Wonkette: “James Lankford ...I’ve got as little doubt he’ll be Oklahoma’s next senator; the Democrat will lose because she's Black”


There could be no greater indication of the political power of Sarah Palin than the remarkable polling history which seemingly indicates that, from nowhere, and against tremendous odds, the election of Oklahoma's T W Shannon as the state's new senator is looking more than possible.

Shannon, described as a very conservative former speaker of the Oklahoma house, has overcome a polling deficit that would have made most candidates give up before they started. No doubt his personal reputation, his compelling story of being a Black conservative, and his wife's story of overcoming health problems have assisted his recent rise greatly, but there can be little doubt that the same factor which advised now Senator Ted Cruz to state publicly “ I Wouldn't be here if it were not for Governor Sarah Palin, was at work.

Shannon's first appearance in the polls was the Harper poll of February 1st;

The long time political commentator Rebecca Schoenkopf, whose family has deep roots in the Oklahoma soil, surveyed the political scene in an in-depth article at the well known site “Wonkette” and came to this conclusion:"James Lankford ...I’ve got as little doubt he’ll be Oklahoma’s next senator.” Oddly, given that Shannon is Black, Schoenkopf adds that Democrat candidate Johnson will lose “because she's Black... which is “all the explanation that’s needed”

From this seemingly impossible to win position, something happened on March 12th  to change the picture entirely; "SARAH PALIN ENDORSES T.W. SHANNON FOR OK SENATE”

"Tom Coburn leaves large conservative shoes to fill as he retires from the U.S. Senate. At 6’5 feet tall, T.W. Shannon is just the leader to fill them," Palin wrote. "T.W. is the underdog in his race, but that’s not a position he’s unfamiliar with."
Palin wrote that Shannon, the youngest and one of the most conservative Speakers of the House in Oklahoma history, has "had to beat the odds all of his life" to eventually become "the first Republican to ever win his district’s seat in the Oklahoma state legislature even though the naysayers said it couldn't be done. When he sought to be Speaker of the House, the naysayers said he was too young and too conservative to win. But his colleagues chose him anyway, and he became the youngest Speaker in Oklahoma history!"
She said while Shannon's opponent has the "backing of Beltway insiders," Shannon has "the passion and experience We the People need in Washington. As the former Speaker he can stand proud on his record of fighting for conservative legislation that directly benefited the lives of Oklahomans by lowering taxes, cutting government waste, and breaking the cycle of poverty by encouraging entrepreneurial self-reliance as the proven path to prosperity."
"We are suffering from a lack of conservative vision. I believe we desperately need leaders with deep convictions who will fight—and win—the battles for conservative policies," Shannon told Palin, who wrote that "We can also rest assured that T.W. will bring to D.C. the integrity and moral compass he acquired growing up attending Bethlehem Baptist Church and teaching Sunday School."
The on March 18th an astounding turnaround in the polls commenced :
“A poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of Oklahomans for a Conservative Future, an outside group backing Shannon, found the state speaker cutting into the early GOP primary lead of Rep. James LankfordLankford, who is the favorite to fill the remaining two years of Coburn’s term, led with 37 percent, followed by Shannon with 28 percent and former state Sen. Randy Brogdon with 7 percent.”
Thus the polls went from the leader James Lankford with a seemingly impregnable lead
to a 27 point turnaround: 

Lankford  54% Shannon 18% Lankford +36 to:
Lankford  37% Shannon 28% Lankford + 9

Then, and prior to Governor Palin appearing at an upcoming and well publicized rally (with Senator's Cruz and Lee ) for Shannon, an (admittedly partisan group's)  poll appeared on April 23rd; “T.W. SHANNON OPENS UP 10-POINT LEAD IN GOP OK SENATE PRIMARY

Conservative Oklahoma Senate candidate T.W. Shannon has opened up a 10-point lead after trailing Rep. James Lankford (R-OK) by 35 points just two months ago in the race to replace retiring Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK). That represents a net swing of 46 points in Shannon's favor.The poll found that Shannon leads Lankford 42% to 32%, and 63% of Oklahomans view Shannon, arguably the most conservative Speaker in the history of the nation's reddest state, favorably, as opposed to 6% that view him unfavorably. In February, 30% of Oklahomans viewed Shannon favorably while 4% did not."

Thus the polling history stood at:
Lankford 54% Shannon 18% Lankford +36
Lankford 37% Shannon 28% Lankford + 9
Lankford 32% Shannon 42% Shannon +10
Shannon, on current polling is just 8 points behind  the 50% needed to avoid a runoff and to go straight into the November elections as the almost certain next senator from Oklahoma. If he does he too could join Senator Cruz in saying “I would not be where I am today if it were not for Governor Sarah Palin”

Next Polling round of non-partisan pollsters found Shannon and Lankford both in a virtual tie well within the margin of error with the lead swapping back and forth within that MOE. Shannon's consistent 32% in non-partisan polling represents a 14 point increase from his first poll and a nett 34 point turnaround in the race.

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