Friday, July 10, 2020

Was There Really A 2016 "Shy Trump Voter"? Is There One Now ?





The lesson of the 2016 polling "miss" is clear by the consensus of the polling firms. There was a substantial number of land-line rural voters who were either unreachable or who wouldn't participate in polling surveys. Pollsters either ignored that cohort or did a "best guess." This led to an overestimation of Hillary Clinton's support and an underestimation of Trump's.

The classic example was in Michigan where, right up to the middle of the election night, the Detroit Free Press pollster said Hillary would win Michigan based on their fieldwork during the night which reported the urban areas with a significant Clinton win (including a suburban formerly Republican county) but they did not canvass the rural areas whose Trump swing was enough to give him a narrow victory in the state.


Presumably the same polling outfits have taken this on board, but even if they have, the "unreachables" and "won't answerers" still leave the firms with a best guess weighting problem. Compounding this conundrum are the "Shy Trump voters" who, because of social pressures, won't say they will vote for Trump or outright lie to the polling firms.

But are shy Trump voters a reality or a myth? There is conclusive data which show they not only exist but do so in large and increasing numbers.

This must be a factor in the seemingly impossible large head to head Biden Trump polling which shows Biden up an aggregate of near 9% and which renders a true picture impossible to obtain at present and has the pollsters on a collision course with two massive failures in a row.

Here  is the data from Rasmussen for the 2016 election and the 2018 midterms and from Trafalgar and The Democracy Institute for 2020. The conclusions are obvious.

 Rasmussen's methodology and "shy Trump voter" findings" (2020 data not available yet)

Why Do You Think Your Blend of IVR Interactive Voice Response Polling ("Robo-Calling") and Internet Panels Is Superior to Live Operator Surveying?
Rasmussen Reports' blend of IVR and internet panel polling enhances survey respondent privacy, which we believe increases survey accuracy.
Rasmussen Reports did a survey in late August of 2016 in which we asked Likely Voters: Compared to previous presidential campaigns, are you more likely or less likely this year to let others know how you intend to vote? Or do you feel about the same? Seventeen percent (17%) of Republicans – nearly one-in-five – said they were less likely in 2016 to tell someone how they intended to vote. That compared to just 10% of Democrats. If you’re looking for why Mr. Trump was the upset winner contrary to the predictions of other pollsters and pundits, this 7% difference is a good place to start.

The Indie shift rather than any Blue Wave" is indicated here by the sharp drop in those indies who were "less likely" to let others know how they were going to vote.

Podcast 26:15 in; (cut and paste)
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/state-of-the-union/podcast-inside-the-mind-of-the-shy-trump-voter-with-robert-cahaly/
Cahaly at Trafalgar; "The silent, shy, Trump voter factor is significantly higher now than it was in 2016". I'D POINT TO THE PREPOSTEROUS EPIC/MRA MICHIGAN POLL 5/6/20 "BIDEN +16" AS A CLASSIC EXAMPLE, AT THE HEIGHT OF THE BLM/COVID/MSM ATTACKS, AS THE EPITOME OF THE "SOCIAL DESIRABILITY FACTOR" DRIVING THE NON-RESPONSES OR FALSE RESPONSES OF THE SHY TRUMP VOTER


"While 77 percent of Trump voters are “enthusiastic” compared to 43 percent of Biden voters, 66 percent of Trump voters would not admit how they are voting to a friend or relative compared to just one third of Biden backers.

Only 4% of DJT voters are open to changing their mind -- while 12% of Biden's backers are. At the same time, just 29% of DJT voters would admit their support for him in public, while 82% of Biden supporters would proclaim their vote openly."

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