The liberal media have apparently decided it is time to launch their "safe pair of hands, moderate conservative Republicans best choice, the anti-Palin" candidate for the 2012 nomination. Having settled on Mitt Romney as their new McCain to oppose President Obama they will, until they see him safely nominated, give him an huge amount of positive coverage.
What seems to have triggered the media frenzy has been the apparent self-destruction of three of the possible candidates the media has been giving either solid backing to or tacit acceptance-Daniels in the former case and Huckabee/Gingrich in the latter.
With Christie denying he will run, much to the media's disappointment and Pawlenty not registering on the polling radar-although it is noticeable some parts of the media are puffing him up a bit lately the media is now giving their full attention to their chosen one.
We have seen this game before, the end result of which of course is they will commence to tear him to shreds once the actual campaign commences in 2012 as they do everything possible to ensure Obama's re-election.
Of course the grass roots might not play this game-as they didn't with Romney in 2008 as the have, in poll after poll, expressed their desire for a genuine conservative candidate with the combined Palin/Huckabee support being double that of Romney's.
Politico leads the charge with four! front page stories "Mitt scores in New Hampshire" they gush, then "Romney's move in New Hampshire" they give an analysis of, and just to fill in the front page "Romney calls for a new president" by Mike Allen one of their lead journalists. All this uses the putative launch of Romney's campaign as Politico describes it with his speech in New Hampshire today.
To ensure nobody misses the point they then link to their analysis of the GOP possible candidates
"Atop the front runners"-but there is only one person examined-Mitt Romney who they gushingly commence the paean with;
"Mitt Romney sits on top of a wide-open field of Republican candidates vying for the presidential nomination."
How they determined that Romney "sits on top" is a mystery as he, by no means is consistently ahead of e.g. Huckabee, in the polls against Obama-or Huckabee for that matter and, as stated, he is way behind the Palin/Huckabee support level. If Huckabee doesn't run and Palin does only then will a clear picture of their support emerge.
Not to be outdone the Los Angeles Times has "A whole new Romney for 2012 presidential run" major article on Romney which they commence with "the early Republican favorite" without advising how that status was determined-but the answer is of course-favorite with the liberal media.
No matter how hard the Beltway liberals and conservatives back their RINO the voters will have the final say in the matter and right now the grass roots are not backing the media's favorite.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Teddy Roosevelt & Sarah Palin-Parallel Lives Parallel Destinies
PARALLEL LIVES. TEDDY ROOSEVELT'S JOURNEY
T.R. THE GREAT CONSERVATIONIST ON A WOLF CULL.PALIN CRITICIZED FOR EXACTLY THE SAME CONCEPT.
AND A BEAR HUNT IN LOUISIANA !
T.R. ELECTED TO NEW YORK CITY COUNCIL IN HIS 20's
S.P. ELECTED TO WASILLA COUNCIL IN HER 20's
T.R RAN FOR MAYOR OF NEW YORK IN HIS 30's-LOST
S.P. MAYOR OF WASILLA IN HER 30's
S.P. RAN FOR LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR OF ALASKA-LOST
T.R. APPOINTED TO MAJOR OFFICE AS CIVIL SERVICE COMMISSIONER
S.P. APPOINTED TO MAJOR OFFICE AS OIL & GAS COMMISSIONER
T.R. ELECTED GOVERNOR AT AGE 40
S.P. ELECTED GOVERNOR AGE 42
T.R. NOMINATED FOR VICE-PRESIDENT AGE 42
S.P. NOMINATED FOR VICE-PRESIDENT AGE 44
T.R. AUTHORED BOOKS INCLUDING 'AMERICAN IDEALS'
S.P. AUTHORED BOOKS INCLUDING 'AMERICA BY HEART'
T.R AND S.P. HUNTERS AND CONSERVATIONISTS.
OUTDOORS PEOPLE WITH ROOTS IN IDAHO,THE DAKOTA'S AND ALASKA.
FEARLESS DEFEATERS OF CORRUPTION.
***********************************************************
STRENGTH OF CHARACTER, LEADERSHIP, HONESTY-PAST PRESIDENT
STRENGTH OF CHARACTER, LEADERSHIP. HONESTY-FUTURE PRESIDENT
SARAH AND T.R. TOOK ON THE CORRUPT ESTABLISHMENTS AND WON
"IF I DIE I DIE" IN THE ATTEMPT- SARAH PALIN." "IF HE FAILS HE FAILS WHILE DARING GREATLY"-TEDDY ROOSEVELT
TEDDY& SARAH-R(H)INO HUNTERS
SPACE FOR ONE MORE
Friday, March 4, 2011
None So Blind As Will Not See Economics For Idiots-Negative Feedback Loop To Destruction
The following by D. Sherman Okst is so obvious that I hesitate to show it. On the other hand since, despite it being so obvious that even Blind Bob could see it, the powers that be still proceed down this crazy path I am showing it in case I am missing something so glaringly obvious which I would be grateful to anyone pointing out.
"Bernanke’s Unstoppable, Self Reinforcing, Negative-Feedback-Loop
Our economic death spiral into the Second Great Depression
Wracked up by both parties over many decades our debt has evolved into a yearly deficit that can no longer be serviced with tax revenue and borrowing."
"To avoid default Ben Bernanke chose to monetize the un-payable portion of our deficit. Each month about 100 billion dollars are created out of thin air to cover our government’s bills.
This has set forth an unstoppable, self reinforcing, negative-feedback-loop whereby:
- Debt monetization (printing money out of thin air to cover the portion of governments spending not satisfied by tax revenue and borrowing) reduces the value of the dollar.
- The debt monetization triggers dollars to flow out of bonds and into commodities.
- This increases demand, commodity prices rise.
- As commodities make their way into the supply chains businesses and consumers realize higher prices.
- Since globalization has caused wages to stagnate at 1970 levels, and with 23% unemployment, businesses try to eat increases, this in turn reduces hiring, causes layoffs and kills expansion.
- Consumers reduce their purchases, case in point: Wal-Mart is losing market share to the Dollar Store - that right there spells retail health (read: it’s terminal).
- Nations whose citizens spend 32%-52% of their entire budget on food are especially affected.
- In those nations where citizens spend 32%-52% of total their income on food; food riots erupt, social unrest breaks out, governments topple.
- Geographically speaking, many of these nations are in the Middle East where about a third of the world's oil supply comes from - so oil production is adversely affected, the price of oil increases. Drastically increases. The empire must then send in troops and warships to protect oil assets from being wiped off the map.
- Oil is an integral part of everything from farming to manufacturing to transportation, therfore the prices of all goods and services rise.
- This of course creates more stress on our economy, which drives tax revenues down, whic creates a greater deficit, which causes idtiot Ben to lean on the print button and monetize even more debt.
- Like an infinite loop in some errant computer code we go back to #1 above and iterate back through this unstoppable, self reinforcing, negatively-insane-Ben Bernanke-code that we call a negative self reinforcing feedback loop."
The entire article is worth reading the only thing missing is the solution which is replacing Bernanke/Obama in 2012-if there still is an economy worth salvaging, by a "common sense conservative" balanced budget, reduced government and government spending administration under Sarah Palin.
When The Going Gets Going Palin's Rivals Fall Over Straight Out Of Starting Blocks
I have written that of all the 27-yes 27 "candidates" for the GOP the media have touted at one time or another in their relentless "anyone but Palin " campaign that in fact only Palin would be able to get her message out relatively often.
That is, because the liberal media and blogosphere have shot all their arrows over the last two years or so and,to their amazement she is still standing tall, if she became the candidate there would be, relatively little they could attack her on with any credibility.Sure, they would try and use the Alinsky tactics and the repetitious "she's so dumb/a quitter" which has become a mantra that nobody, surely, takes any notice of. Here is the truth-the left is war weary in their battle with Palin and the month "moratorium" was a sure and certain sign of capitulation.
" The people over at politicsdaily.com reported, “A liberal group, apparently frustrated with all the attention its nemesis keeps getting, is promoting “Ignore Sarah Palin Week,” urging like-minded souls to change the channel or surf to another Web page whenever the ubiquitous former governor of Alaska pops up.” They then reported the group in saying, “We’ve tried debating her, arguing with her, boycotting her, voting against her, and yet . . . she keeps coming back.”
On the other hand the putative 26 would, if any one were once safely nominated with the help of the liberal media as "a safe pair of hands centrist" be torn to shreds, as we saw with McCain, as scandals,whether true or not,as we saw with McCain, diversions outright lies and the whole 9 yards would be thrown at them and their message would be lost in the mud.
Unfortunately for their plans the candidates are tripping up as they leave, or enter the starting blocks, and all by themselves are winnowing out the field.
Thune, a real media darling, gave up before he started, Daniels who was, and still is in some quarters, the subject of a real media beat up with major articles praising him, has waffled on policy, unions, morality and actually running and his balloon has deflated as quickly as it rose.
The media have so pressed Christie to run that he has become a gasbag, pontificating on other candidates, especially Palin from the vantage of his brief tenure so far. He could be well assured that if he got the nomination he would be so lampooned that even his apparent thick skin would wilt under the pressure and even one intemperate outburst would see him condemned as a "hothead'.
Huckabee has, for reasons known only to himself, entered the media arena lately with odd comments on, of all people, Natalie Portman, America's current sweetheart, and seems content to continue on as a Fox commentator. Gingrich has stuttered out of the starting blocks and, just as I expected, as soon as he made his announcement of an "exploratory" campaign he has been the subject of substantial criticism and satire which is only a small taste of what will follow.
Huntsman is being attacked by a New Hampshire GOP bigwig before he even gets one foot in front of the other, Romney has been ceaselessly sniped at by the rightist activists but left alone by the media. Nothing is more obvious than that he is their "McCain" and the GOP would nominate him at their peril.
Surely nobody believes that the erstwhile media darling Barbour, another who self destructed before getting out of the starting blocks, would last 5 minutes after getting the nomination before the ridicule and chants of "racist" would begin?
In the meantime Palin sails blithely on, ignoring the media, who have done her a substantial favor with their "Palin free month" which served the dual purpose of her being able to speak without too much distortion ensuing, and letting the public see exactly what sort of mad campaign the media has been running against her.
The field is doing its self-winnowing and it is clear that if the Palin/Huckabee support amongst the grass roots coalesces behind Palin then she is unstoppable-both by the "26" and the left wing media.
That is, because the liberal media and blogosphere have shot all their arrows over the last two years or so and,to their amazement she is still standing tall, if she became the candidate there would be, relatively little they could attack her on with any credibility.Sure, they would try and use the Alinsky tactics and the repetitious "she's so dumb/a quitter" which has become a mantra that nobody, surely, takes any notice of. Here is the truth-the left is war weary in their battle with Palin and the month "moratorium" was a sure and certain sign of capitulation.
" The people over at politicsdaily.com reported, “A liberal group, apparently frustrated with all the attention its nemesis keeps getting, is promoting “Ignore Sarah Palin Week,” urging like-minded souls to change the channel or surf to another Web page whenever the ubiquitous former governor of Alaska pops up.” They then reported the group in saying, “We’ve tried debating her, arguing with her, boycotting her, voting against her, and yet . . . she keeps coming back.”
On the other hand the putative 26 would, if any one were once safely nominated with the help of the liberal media as "a safe pair of hands centrist" be torn to shreds, as we saw with McCain, as scandals,whether true or not,as we saw with McCain, diversions outright lies and the whole 9 yards would be thrown at them and their message would be lost in the mud.
Unfortunately for their plans the candidates are tripping up as they leave, or enter the starting blocks, and all by themselves are winnowing out the field.
Thune, a real media darling, gave up before he started, Daniels who was, and still is in some quarters, the subject of a real media beat up with major articles praising him, has waffled on policy, unions, morality and actually running and his balloon has deflated as quickly as it rose.
The media have so pressed Christie to run that he has become a gasbag, pontificating on other candidates, especially Palin from the vantage of his brief tenure so far. He could be well assured that if he got the nomination he would be so lampooned that even his apparent thick skin would wilt under the pressure and even one intemperate outburst would see him condemned as a "hothead'.
Huckabee has, for reasons known only to himself, entered the media arena lately with odd comments on, of all people, Natalie Portman, America's current sweetheart, and seems content to continue on as a Fox commentator. Gingrich has stuttered out of the starting blocks and, just as I expected, as soon as he made his announcement of an "exploratory" campaign he has been the subject of substantial criticism and satire which is only a small taste of what will follow.
Huntsman is being attacked by a New Hampshire GOP bigwig before he even gets one foot in front of the other, Romney has been ceaselessly sniped at by the rightist activists but left alone by the media. Nothing is more obvious than that he is their "McCain" and the GOP would nominate him at their peril.
Surely nobody believes that the erstwhile media darling Barbour, another who self destructed before getting out of the starting blocks, would last 5 minutes after getting the nomination before the ridicule and chants of "racist" would begin?
In the meantime Palin sails blithely on, ignoring the media, who have done her a substantial favor with their "Palin free month" which served the dual purpose of her being able to speak without too much distortion ensuing, and letting the public see exactly what sort of mad campaign the media has been running against her.
The field is doing its self-winnowing and it is clear that if the Palin/Huckabee support amongst the grass roots coalesces behind Palin then she is unstoppable-both by the "26" and the left wing media.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Constitutional/Racial Crisis With Tied Election 2012-Palin Candidacy Averts
Based on the results of the last presidential election there is a strong possibility that neither 2012 candidate will win the 270 Electoral College votes required for a winning majority.
The circumstances that would allow for this to happen are illustrated in maps one and two below, with the possibilities illustrated being well removed from simple speculative conjecture.
In Map #1 most of the states projected as possibly going to the Republican candidate in 2012 went for G.W. Bush in either 2000 or 2004. Most also withstood the substantial swing to the Democratic Party in 2012.
The swing states which bring the GOP candidate to 269 electoral college votes include Ohio/Iowa/Colorado/Florida/Virginia/Indiana. All of these went for G.W. Bush in both of his elections. New Hampshire went for Bush in 2000.
The states which deny the Republican candidate victory in this scenario are Nevada/New Mexico/North Carolina and, which would no doubt cause the GOP much pain, one electoral college vote from Nebraska.
Nebraska, along with Maine, are the only states that distribute their electoral votes based on congressional districts. President Obama won one of Nebraska's districts in 2008 along with the three states won by Bush in 2004.
The other, realistic, way a 269 vote tie can be achieved is seen in Map #2.
This map is, perhaps, a bit more speculative, although entirely plausible, as it is based on Wisconsin going to the GOP.This did not happen in the last three elections, but much has changed since 2000, or even 2008.With Map #2, the addition of Wisconsin and North Carolina, and the loss once again of Virginia for the GOP gives a realistic adjustment of the swing states and shows a simple path to a 269 each tie.
Wisconsin experienced one of the largest swings from the Democratic Party to the Republicans in the November 2010 mid-term elections. Long standing liberal Dem. Senator Feingold was defeated, the Republicans won the Governorship, and the states congressional delegation now numbers five Republicans to three Democrats.The current labor unrest may further end up making the state a Republican pick up in 2012.
Should either of these scenarios play out there is the strong possibility of a constitutional crisis, the likes of which has not been seen since the "stolen election" of 1876 . The crisis of the 2000 election hinged on a recount in one state. Whomever was awarded Florida's popular vote, and thus its Electoral College vote, and thus a majority of electoral votes in the country, was the overall winner. The crisis of 2012, should it occur, would see a situation where neither candidate has a majority. At that point the constitution and the House of Representatives comes into play.
The constitution is very clear on the matter fortunately. Article 12 states, inter alia:
"The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice."
Thus, if the tied vote scenario plays out, and presuming there are no other, third party type, candidates who have won electoral votes, the House would meet to choose the next president by January 20th 2013, with the states having one vote each, whilst the Senate would meet to choose the Vice-President.
Based on the current composition of the House, and if voting went strictly on party lines, with no vote switching or abstentions in states with a close proportion of Republicans and Democrats, the Republican candidate would be chosen on the first ballot.
According to information supplied by the Clerk of the House of Representatives, the current composition of the house by party is:
States with a Republican party majority of Representatives 31
States with a Democratic party majority of Representatives 18
States with an equal number of Representatives (Minnesota) 1
In 2012 there will be a population based adjustment in the electoral college (which has been allowed for in the two maps) in a number of states with a net gain for the Republicans, based on the 2008 election, of 6 electoral college votes. However, in none of these states would the loss, or gain, of members affect the current balance. For example, Texas is gaining four members whilst Ohio is losing two members. However, in both cases the loss or gain of members would not affect the overall Republican majority in those states because the majority is so large in both.
What can happen to cause a crisis, or give victory to the Democrats? If there are changes in swing states delegations due to a move back to the Dem's from the GOP's, perhaps, high watermark result in November 2010, the making of an Obama re-election, or constitutional crisis come into play.
The following states currently have a one or two member Republican majority:
Republicans Democrats
Colorado 4 3
Nevada 2 1
West Virginia 2 1
New Hampshire * 2 0
Wisconsin * 5 3
Thus, if the Republicans lost their majority in these five states the delegation results would be (*or they lost in three of the five and the other two became tied delegations and voted with the Democrats as might, most likely, tied Minnesota).
REPUBLICAN STATES 26
DEMOCRATIC STATES 24
If one further state went to the Democrats, and all politics is local so anything could happen, by the GOP losing one Representative in either Montana, or North or South Dakota, the House would be split 25/25 and a constitutional crisis of massive proportions would eventuate.
The "stolen election" of 1876 brought the country to the brink of civil war. The election of 2012 gives the possibility of a situation where, as in 1824, when no candidate had an electoral majority, the candidate with a significant minority of popular votes might be chosen by the House under heated circumstances.
This brings also the possibility of an inflamed racial environment, subsequent to a heated election campaign, over a long period of wheeling and dealing balloting to try and resolve the results of the election.
For all these reasons, especially if the economy is at the current level of unemployment-or worse, the election of 2012 is fraught with a terrible danger for the country.These dangers could be averted, or ameliorated if, well before the actual election, the constitutional possibilities are well canvassed with the public so they are aware of what might need to be done.
Otherwise, if by the first Monday following the second Wednesday in March 2013, as the constitution requires, there is no President, the Senate's choice of Vice-President will take over-to who knows what effect.
A more likely result is, and presuming Sarah Palin is the Republican nominee, set out in this map which reflects current and historic voting trends trends, and is adjusted for the Electoral College's population changes. This map shows a close, but clear, Republican victory, because of a substantial GOP base turnout, which would prevent the possibility of a tied vote scenario unfolding.
The circumstances that would allow for this to happen are illustrated in maps one and two below, with the possibilities illustrated being well removed from simple speculative conjecture.
In Map #1 most of the states projected as possibly going to the Republican candidate in 2012 went for G.W. Bush in either 2000 or 2004. Most also withstood the substantial swing to the Democratic Party in 2012.
The swing states which bring the GOP candidate to 269 electoral college votes include Ohio/Iowa/Colorado/Florida/Virginia/Indiana. All of these went for G.W. Bush in both of his elections. New Hampshire went for Bush in 2000.
The states which deny the Republican candidate victory in this scenario are Nevada/New Mexico/North Carolina and, which would no doubt cause the GOP much pain, one electoral college vote from Nebraska.
Nebraska, along with Maine, are the only states that distribute their electoral votes based on congressional districts. President Obama won one of Nebraska's districts in 2008 along with the three states won by Bush in 2004.
The other, realistic, way a 269 vote tie can be achieved is seen in Map #2.
This map is, perhaps, a bit more speculative, although entirely plausible, as it is based on Wisconsin going to the GOP.This did not happen in the last three elections, but much has changed since 2000, or even 2008.With Map #2, the addition of Wisconsin and North Carolina, and the loss once again of Virginia for the GOP gives a realistic adjustment of the swing states and shows a simple path to a 269 each tie.
Wisconsin experienced one of the largest swings from the Democratic Party to the Republicans in the November 2010 mid-term elections. Long standing liberal Dem. Senator Feingold was defeated, the Republicans won the Governorship, and the states congressional delegation now numbers five Republicans to three Democrats.The current labor unrest may further end up making the state a Republican pick up in 2012.
Should either of these scenarios play out there is the strong possibility of a constitutional crisis, the likes of which has not been seen since the "stolen election" of 1876 . The crisis of the 2000 election hinged on a recount in one state. Whomever was awarded Florida's popular vote, and thus its Electoral College vote, and thus a majority of electoral votes in the country, was the overall winner. The crisis of 2012, should it occur, would see a situation where neither candidate has a majority. At that point the constitution and the House of Representatives comes into play.
The constitution is very clear on the matter fortunately. Article 12 states, inter alia:
"The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice."
Thus, if the tied vote scenario plays out, and presuming there are no other, third party type, candidates who have won electoral votes, the House would meet to choose the next president by January 20th 2013, with the states having one vote each, whilst the Senate would meet to choose the Vice-President.
Based on the current composition of the House, and if voting went strictly on party lines, with no vote switching or abstentions in states with a close proportion of Republicans and Democrats, the Republican candidate would be chosen on the first ballot.
According to information supplied by the Clerk of the House of Representatives, the current composition of the house by party is:
States with a Republican party majority of Representatives 31
States with a Democratic party majority of Representatives 18
States with an equal number of Representatives (Minnesota) 1
In 2012 there will be a population based adjustment in the electoral college (which has been allowed for in the two maps) in a number of states with a net gain for the Republicans, based on the 2008 election, of 6 electoral college votes. However, in none of these states would the loss, or gain, of members affect the current balance. For example, Texas is gaining four members whilst Ohio is losing two members. However, in both cases the loss or gain of members would not affect the overall Republican majority in those states because the majority is so large in both.
What can happen to cause a crisis, or give victory to the Democrats? If there are changes in swing states delegations due to a move back to the Dem's from the GOP's, perhaps, high watermark result in November 2010, the making of an Obama re-election, or constitutional crisis come into play.
The following states currently have a one or two member Republican majority:
Republicans Democrats
Colorado 4 3
Nevada 2 1
West Virginia 2 1
New Hampshire * 2 0
Wisconsin * 5 3
Thus, if the Republicans lost their majority in these five states the delegation results would be (*or they lost in three of the five and the other two became tied delegations and voted with the Democrats as might, most likely, tied Minnesota).
REPUBLICAN STATES 26
DEMOCRATIC STATES 24
If one further state went to the Democrats, and all politics is local so anything could happen, by the GOP losing one Representative in either Montana, or North or South Dakota, the House would be split 25/25 and a constitutional crisis of massive proportions would eventuate.
The "stolen election" of 1876 brought the country to the brink of civil war. The election of 2012 gives the possibility of a situation where, as in 1824, when no candidate had an electoral majority, the candidate with a significant minority of popular votes might be chosen by the House under heated circumstances.
This brings also the possibility of an inflamed racial environment, subsequent to a heated election campaign, over a long period of wheeling and dealing balloting to try and resolve the results of the election.
For all these reasons, especially if the economy is at the current level of unemployment-or worse, the election of 2012 is fraught with a terrible danger for the country.These dangers could be averted, or ameliorated if, well before the actual election, the constitutional possibilities are well canvassed with the public so they are aware of what might need to be done.
Otherwise, if by the first Monday following the second Wednesday in March 2013, as the constitution requires, there is no President, the Senate's choice of Vice-President will take over-to who knows what effect.
A more likely result is, and presuming Sarah Palin is the Republican nominee, set out in this map which reflects current and historic voting trends trends, and is adjusted for the Electoral College's population changes. This map shows a close, but clear, Republican victory, because of a substantial GOP base turnout, which would prevent the possibility of a tied vote scenario unfolding.
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