Libertarian Party Poised To Hand 2016 Presidential Election To Democrats?

The Wall Street Journal had an article up-which reached this conclusion:

"The de Blasio-Warren agenda won't travel. Colorado is the real political harbinger."

Here is the full segment from LINK

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"Cowan and Kessler: Economic Populism Is a Dead End for Democrats

On the same day that Bill de Blasio won in New York City, a referendum to raise taxes on high-income Coloradans to fund public education and universal pre-K failed in a landslide. This is the type of state that Democrats captured in 2008 to realign the national electoral map, and they did so through offering a vision of pragmatic progressive government, not fantasy-based blue-state populism. Before Democrats follow Sen. Warren and Mayor-elect de Blasio over the populist cliff, they should consider Colorado as the true 2013 Election Day harbinger of American liberalism."

The authors premise is, that recent and current political events, which included the recall defeat of two Democrat state representatives, and the resignation of a third after the gun lobby took them on in Colorado, signify the return of that state to its pre-Obama presidential voting pattern when it was for the most part reliably in the GOP's column.

Unfortunately for  the GOP that premise, and as the 2016 Electoral College map below shows, the return of Colorado is, by itself, not enough to ensure the success of the 2016 candidate;


The map above builds on Romney's state wins by adding Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Colorado which leaves the GOP two Electoral College votes short of the 270 required for victory. Of course it can by no means be taken for granted that the three states preceding Colorado are in the bag. Florida was lost by less than 1% Ohio was close but Iowa (and Colorado) were lost by significant margins.

However there would be confidence that the normal pendulum swing, and perhaps the Obama factor being missing might deliver all four into the GOP's column-where to go next then for the remaining votes?

Nevada is an obvious choice but that state, and New Mexico have a substantial Hispanic population, and
given the large margins they went to Obama by they would appear stony ground to plough. Clearly, given the above scenario, the election will be won and lost in Virginia. As this map shows if the GOP wins in Virginia it can do without either Iowa or Colorado


So what are the Republicans chances in Virginia in 2016? A glance at recent Electoral history shows they would appear to be not all that bright. The shift in population of liberals into Northern Virginia combined with a massive turnout of Black voters gave President Obama two comfortable wins.

2008;Obama 52.63  McCain  46.33  Barr (Libertarian) 0.31
2012:Obama 51.16 Romney 47.28  Johnson (Lib)      0.81
Thus Obama won by successively 6.8 and 3.88 points with the 2012 result giving cause for optimism.

However, the recent election for Governor of Virginia brought some possibly disastrous news for the GOP-apart from their candidate Cucinnelli losing by 2.52%. This is the final Virginia result:

McCauliffe D 47.75%  Cucinnelli R 45.23% Sardis L 6.52%

Clearly there were local factors at play with Cucinnelli considered by some not have run the best of campaigns. Further the election came just after the government shutdown which the Dem's, of course, attacked the Tea Party Republicans for causing disruption to life and especially the paychecks of the multitude of government workers in Northern Virginia.

Thus it is possible that disaffected Republicans voted for the Libertarian Sardis-polls showed that he took "a plague on both your houses" votes from both McCauliffe and Cucinnelli, but slightly more from the Republican.

It is a truism that most often third party candidates poll much higher in pre-election polls than they do on the actual election day, but in this case the Sardis polls held up. There is of course no way of knowing what the political landscape will look like in November 2016, or who the candidates will be. It may be that President Obama leaves the Dem's in the same sorry shape that G.W. Bush left the Republicans in 2008, in which case the GOP probably wouldn't need to worry if Hillary was the opposing candidate or how the Libertarian would fare.

If however President Obama leaves office with the economy in relatively good shape, and Hillary is the candidate, and his 96% Black voter support transfers to her, then the Libertarian vote could be decisive.

Clearly if the 2016 Libertarian candidate held even  half of the 2013 Governorship vote it received and the half it lost was split evenly between the Dem and Republican the GOP candidate would lose based on the 2012 result.

It may be that as well as appealing to its own base with the right conservative candidate the Republicans may need to look at what they can offer the Libertarian voter. It may be a look at cannabis reform, or civil liberties issues, but that appeal, rather than an appeal to the Black community which seems concreted into the Dem's, may be the best path to victory for without Virginia there appears no chance.
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Postscript: In a case of great minds think alike I found, as I was putting the finishing research touches on this article that the concept has also be mined today by
Dean Garrison at "Freedom Outpost" LINK. Whilst there are similarities that is of course by the nature of the subject matter. 

However I believe there are enough differences in approach, particularly with the illustrations in this post for both articles to stand alone and be complementary and, hopefully in the case of mine, add some further value to the reader in there being two approaches rather than one. 



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Official Virginia Result Cements PPP (Daily Kos/D) Polling's Latest Poll Flop

PPP Polling the Democrat orientated pollster for ultra-leftist "Daily Kos" has, once again, fallen flat continuing a run which was particularly evident in their Ted Cruz polling disaster.

PPP had Democrat Terry McAulliffe way out in front in the Virginia campaign for governor against Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Libertarian Robert Sarvis. This was their final  prediction on November 3rd:

"McAuliffe leads final poll by 7

PPP's final Virginia poll finds Democrats leading in all three statewide races. In the Governor's race Terry McAuliffe has the advantage with 50% to 43% for Ken Cuccinelli and 4% for Libertarian Robert Sarvis. +/- 3.3% margin of error"

And this is what the election day result was as reported by the New York Times;

Thus PPP's prediction of a 7 point blow out turned out to be a nail-biting 2.5 point squeaker outside the margin or error, so far out that there would seemingly be no justification for such a bad prediction.

But in answer to the critics who rightly rounded on their blog, PPP implied the result was not final and, who knows, they may be proved right or their prediction might get to the margin of error when the official results have been tabulated. In fact this is what they said:




Well the Commonwealth of Virginia's official election website LINK has now published the certified final results which are thus:



Sadly for PPP's hopes the change for McCauliffe's total was a reduction of 0.25 points and his winning margin was 2.52 points-not anywhere near PPP's prediction of 7 or the MOE. 

PPP is exposed, once again as the Democrat momentum pusher and poor performer. Why anyone would take any notice of their prognostications when  tea leaves are readily available and perhaps just as accurate is a mystery.









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Fisker "Green Energy" Bankruptcy:Classic result of government picking "winners' with taxpayers money

Here we have a classic result of government picking "winners' with taxpayers money

"Fisker Automotive whose high-end electric cars caught the eye of ...celebrities has filed for  bankruptcy protection"

"Having struggled for some time the company announced in April that it was laying off 75% of its workforce"

The bankruptcy could become a political hot potato because the US Government had focused on Fisker to encourage the development of green energy,providing it with loans.

"The Wall Street Journal quoted a Department of Energy representative as saying it had recovered $53 million of the $192 million Fisker owed the government leaving $139 million unpaid."

"Republicans highlighted the fate of solar energy company Solyndra which went bankrupt after getting a $500 million government loan protection."

Lesbian Haunted House Features Attack On Palin (No I'm Not Drunk & Yes, It's Toronto Again)

No I am not making this up and yes, there is definitely something in the water in Toronto! Who would have thought that staid northern city would have a crack smoking Mayor and, yes they do, a "Lesbian Haunted House"

"Textual Orientation" AT THIS LINK has the whole story but here is a segment featuring, the "faux feminist" Sarah Palin of all people. I guess Palin is imaged as some sort of cautionary tale for the lesbian folks (the fact that she has a lesbian relative escapes them-as does so much to the entire Palin hate gang who say things about her based on their own preconceptions or what the media has fed them).

But, leaving aside the Palin Derangement Syndrome the fact that there exists on this planet a "lesbian haunted house" is a marvel of our age and something to be wondered at. What it means in the broader context of society -well I have absolutely no idea but it must mean something, perhaps you can puzzle it out!

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Montina and I are about to learn all the lesbian rules.

I know I’m late to the party on this one, but at what other time will I get to write about a lesbian haunted house? In as quirky a city as Toronto, the odds are probably not as slim as you’d think — but I’m not about to take my chances.

At College and Lansdowne from October 17-30, you could slink down a back alley and stumble upon not only a Rob Ford crack deal, but also Killjoy’s Kastle, Allyson Mitchell‘s fully funded lesbian art project.

Killjoy’s Kastle is a twist on those freaky evangelical hell houses that showcase people’s worst sins, like pre-marital sex, abortion, and of course, same-sex relationships. We heathens, however, like to expose religious conservatism as the bizarre cult it is, so naturally someone was going to exploit hell houses for the purpose of subversive art.

Upon our arrival, my haunted house mate Montina and I were ushered into the feminist graveyard, where we waited for our gender studies graduate student tour guide (played by Dainty Smith) to walk us through the house. She warned us that we were about to see some disturbing feminist imagery that may be upsetting, like “womyn loving womyn” and the lethal “carpet muncher monster”. We would, however, get the chance to discuss our feelings in the decompression room at the end of the tour. (Because feminist lesbian art isn’t feminist lesbian art without a room in which to discuss feelings!)

Killjoy’s Kastle brimmed with multimedia work, and I discovered later that a team of artists had been assembling the production since August, taking a full two months to stage it. A smattering of clay testicles in the “ball busting room” lay waiting to be destroyed by sledgehammers, as participants were encouraged to “smash the patriarchy”. In one room a gargantuan plush woman hung from the ceiling, dripping menstruation “blood” into a bucket full of apples. A wall of “faux feminists”warned viewers against worshipping false idols, including Carrie Bradshaw, Sarah Palin, and Lena Dunham (whom I still think is awesome, I don’t know…?).

Sarah Palin, the faux feminist.



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An Open Letter To Governor Palin; Accepting Bashir's Apology; A Legacy Moment To Create A New Civility

God bless her: "Who am I not to accept offer of (Bashir's) apology? Everyone must humble themselves" and accept that offer of apology".

The 'Orlando Sentinel' announces that Governor Palin will be appearing on Fox television this Sunday.

"Former Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska, talks to "Fox News Sunday" at 10 a.m. on WOFL-Channel 35. She will discuss MSNBC host Martin Bashir's slam against her as "America's resident dunce" and her decision to cancel an interview with NBC's "Today." 

As is the wont of the media which can't give Palin credit for anything, even presenting the reason why she could express herself with righteous indignation, the report of her upcoming Chris Wallace interview presents her as seemingly only dealing with a childish bit of name calling.

As everyone knows, which makes the Sentinel's report even more disingenuous, Bashir launched a tirade of scatological filth at Palin, for which he, some days afterwards and in the light of a massive reaction (not from women's groups, MSNBC/NBC or the liberal media in general) delivered an abject apology.

Governor Palin, who would have had every right to have reacted angrily, kept a dignified silence and let others, including some exceptional voices in the media such as Howard Kurtz, express their shock and indignation. This dignified silence had the added benefit of shutting down the usual leftist hate mob who take every opportunity to chant, in co-ordinated unison, "Palin is playing the victim again" which would have taken the spotlight off of Bashir.

Now, from of all places, the home of leftist media, the Los Angeles Times has a column up by Robin Abcarian LINK where she enjoins her readers ;

"A simple request: Please stop calling Sarah Palin names.

If you find her politics repellant and her intellectual gifts lacking, fine. Just say so. But stop with the verbal abuse and the debased revenge fantasies.

Unlike the "feminists" at NOW, Shakesville, Wonkette and other leftist sites  and organizations Abcarian, as a woman as well as possessing innate dignity in political matters, even if her article still can't help containing most of the leftist talking points towards Palin, has clearly had enough. Sadly by perusing the comments section to her post it is clear that her readers (it is Los Angeles after all)  have disregarded her strictures and continue with the Palin bashing. 

But Abcarian's column is important just for having happened in its time and place and message. Perhaps, and perhaps it is a fond hope, the tide of hate and invective against conservatives and conservative women, Palin in particular, is ebbing?

If by his revolting actions Bashir has opened eyes and caused, at least a pause in the flow of bile in the political discourse, then, in a strange way, he may have done everyone a favor. Not least would be, as he put it in his apology, giving those who hate a chance to reflect on not only what poison they are spreading, but what it is doing to themselves as a person-to their very soul in fact.

In my opinion the stars are aligned for Governor Palin to make a major contribution, perhaps a legacy one to, to paraphrase Bashir,  the great American discourse. Should she, in her interview with Chris Wallace, advise that yes Bashir's words were hateful but in the spirit of forgiveness, perhaps in the Christian spirit which both she and Bashir share, she accepts his apology as sincere and that it s now time for the nation to move on to the genuine civility that President Obama called for but which went unheeded by the left.

To Governor Palin I  ask, with the greatest of respect and from one who has been a dedicated supporter, please consider grasping this moment in the light of Christian forgiveness. 

It would  most certainly be understandable and understood if instead you used the Wallace interview to condemn and attack-you have every right of course, and that would resolve the partisan issue. 

But with the wider issue, for faith and society, and the national discourse and, again, perhaps for your legacy, I ask that you consider accepting the apology and help to usher in a new era of good feeling under your moral and exemplary leadership and example.

Sincerely

M. Joseph Sheppard



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