Donald Trump OutPerformed Every Poll On Tuesday Bar One-A Remarkable Result

It is recognized by pundits and psephologists that, over time, the most accurate method available of determining a candidates polling is in the aggregate.

This is where all polls are combined for a state or nationally, and by doing so over time the outliers and the most accurate polls merge in to a picture which has, most notably in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, been the most accurate.

Both Real Clear Politics and the Huffington Post Pollster use this method. Huffington Post uses every available poll whereas RCP selects polls which, in their opinion, are more accurate and have been in the field for some years. 

The  Huffington Post  poll aggregate for Donald Trump nationwide has been running about 1-2 points higher for him than RCP's but the difference is minimal

If we use the Real Clear Politics aggregate polls 

for the states that voted Tuesday March 15th the results were astoundingly accurate for Donald Trump who out performed the aggregate average in every state except one where he was behind by only 1.2 points

The final Ohio aggregate was 35.4% Trump actual was 35.6%

Florida aggregate was 43.0% actual 45.7%

Illinois 36.0% aggregate actual 38.8% 

NC aggregate 41.3% actual 40.2% hardly an "under perform" 

The only March Missouri poll had Trump at 36% he got 40.9%

Also his national aggregate was 36.0% he averaged around 40% Tuesday

Donald Trump's Incredible Poll Day 03/14/16; Florida/Ohio/NorthCarolina

First nationwide polls after leftists Chicago riots etc. Trump over 50% for the first time

National average at highest point ever  at aggregate 40.3%

 Opinion Savvy Florida poll:
Trump 44% (+1)
Rubio 26% (+2)
Cruz 18% (-3)
Kasich 10% (0)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brackets 3/9
By my count this is 10th poll on the Florida GOP race released since the 9th March. All polls show Trump at 42+ and no poll shows Rubio above 27%. This is about as close as you can get to a sure thing in polling. It would be a minor miracle if Rubio did not lose Florida by double digits.

Latest RCP polls report. Within reach/tied in Ohio well ahead in South Carolina.

Yesterday's great polls AT THIS LINK

Donald Trump's Incredible Poll Day 03/13/16; UPDATED;California/ North Carolina/ Florida/Illinois/Ohio/Missouri

Up 20 and 22 points in Florida

******************************************

NEW CALIFORNIA POLL

TRUMP JUST BELOW +14 POINTS

This is something interesting. California Political Review. com has a poll out on the Presidential primary in CA. Below is the link and results of the poll.
http://capoliticalreviewcom.c....

Donald Trump - 38.3%
Ted Cruz - 22.4%
John Kasich - 19.7%
Marco Rubio - 10.1%
Undecided / No Opinion - 9.6%

*************************************

NEW;NORTH CAROLINA TRUMP +10 Rubio collapse continues as Cruz gets his supporters

PPP POLLING (D)


Trump 44%


Cruz 33%


Kasich 11%


Rubio 7%

******************************************************

Up 4 or 9 in Illinois. Rubio's collapse and transfer of support to Cruz is obvious but still short of 
winning. 

This poll was concluded before the Cruz approved riots.

In Ohio, the biggest challenge for Trump he has gone from being behind by 5 points against Kasich to a tie in one poll and behind by 6 in a poll that concluded a day earlier.At this point the outcome of Ohio is unpredictable but to be either tied, slightly behind or ahead within the margin of error bodes well

****************************************************
Latest polling from Missouri shows Trump up
seven points at 36% to 29% for Cruz

Fort Hays State University Poll

"Trump took 36 percent over Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who was chosen by 29 percent of Republicans polled. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who had garnered early support from legislative leaders, was chosen by 9 percent of respondents. 

Gov. John Kasich of Ohio trailed the field with 8 percent. The poll found that 17 percent of respondents who intended to vote in the Republican primary were undecided.

The poll had a margin of error of 4.6 percent overall, increasing to about 7 percent for the Democratic presidential question and 8 percent on the GOP side."

The Mask Is Off-Cruz/Rubio/Kasich Puppets Of Jeb & Romney Enablers Of The Mob

The Establishment in their desperation has let the mask slip. The supposed "hatred" of Cruz is shown to be a ploy whose time has passed with Jeb Bush's dropping out and Rubio's march to oblivion.

Here's  Erick Erickson  (of all people) lifting the curtain to show the levers and wheels in motion;

********************************************************

"The Deal is Made: Kasich to Ohio, Rubio to Florida, Cruz Out of Both.

Jeb Bush has a private meeting with Kasich, Cruz, and Rubio.

Cruz’s campaign, after a lot of bluster about going all in in Florida admits it was all a head fake. They had one event scheduled for today with Sean Hannity in Orlando that was previously scheduled and will be nationally focused, not Florida focused. Then Cruz is bailing on Florida. For the Rubio folks complaining, I’m told the campaign did try to make adjustments, but couldn’t for reasons not in the campaign’s control.

Marco Rubio revs up his Florida presence and is nowhere to be found in Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina.

The Cruz campaign redirects all its resources to those three states, with Cruz rallies, ad buys, GOTV etc.

Now Rubio’s spokesman goes on national television and says Rubio supporters should vote for John Kasich in Ohio.

Kasich is going all in in Ohio and ceding Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina to Cruz. In fact, Kasich suddenly has no events in Illinois, and only one event in Pennsylvania after the Ohio primary.

In other words, Kasich is now only campaigning in Ohio; Rubio is only campaigning in Florida; and Cruz is avoiding events in Florida and Ohio.

There is clearly a plan to stop Trump.

Now National Review is coming out with an endorsement of Cruz."

********************************************************

On top of this all three now clearly exposed RINO Establishment tools have attacked Trump over the Chicago riots and defended the mob instead of showing some balls and defending the right of free speech.

Kasich "seeds of division that Trump has been sowing bore fruit & it was ugly." 

"Marco Rubio; There are consequences to words"

"I think a campaign bears responsibility for creating an environment, when the candidate urges supporters to engage in physical violence to punch people in the face," Sen. Ted Cruz said, speaking to reporters at Rolling Meadows, Illinois. "The predictable consequence of that is that it escalates. And today is unlikely to be the last such instance...That's not how our politics should occur."

Kasich/Cruz/Rubio versus the people.It's now Trump or surrender forever to the rent-a mob radical left by a craven Establishment only seeking power for their clique.

The utter fools think that if Trump is eliminated an done of them gets the nomination that the same mob won't turn on them to defend Sanders or Hillary.

"I should point out there isn’t violence at my events," Rubio said. "There isn’t violence at Ted’s events. There isn’t violence at a Kasich event. There isn’t violence at a Clinton event."

Far-Left Anarchists With http://MoveOn.Org  and Bernie Sanders Take Credit For Chicago Political Mayhem http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/11/far-left-anarchists-with-moveon-org-and-bernie-sanders-take-credit-for-chicago-political-mayhem/ …

Rubio/Cruz/Kasich choose sides- "They just chose the side of the communists, socialists and Islamists."

It is to be hoped that real America witnessing these scenes of utter intimidation will rise up in revolt at the ballot box. Hopefully too once again the schemes and plots of the Establishment and their media lackey's fall apart because of unanticipated events and a stalwart unwavering Trump Palin Carson and other good men and women and the legions of similarly stalwart supporters.

So much is riding on the Trump voters and their blue collar Dem and indie crossover voters in Florida/Ohio /Missour is/North Carolina and Illinois who can now see, in blindingly clear light, who the real enemy of the working and middle class are.

Fight for Trump, fight for America against the financial clique and the leftist mobs.

Fair use notice: This website contains copyrighted material, the use of which may or may not have been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Excerpts of such material is made available for educational purposes, and as such this constitutes ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Act. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this website is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. Original material published on this website may be excerpted and the excerpt reproduced for the purpose of critical reviews. However, such original material may not be reproduced in full on another website or in any manner without prior approval from this website’s owner. In all cases when material from this website is reproduced in full or in part, the author and website must be credited by name and a hyperlink provided to this website 

Update; After Florida/Cruzgate Rubio Should Endorse Trump (Or Be A Fool Without A Job)

UPDATE#2

I really didn't expect the Rubio team to have the simple common sense to give at least a semblance of hope to his political career by endorsing Donald Trump. Nothing came of such a suggestion but-never daunted I am, uncalled for of course, making it again as I can't see how any one can be so dumb.

After Florida Rubio went the other way and called for his delegates to support Kasich not Trump. That didn't make any difference in the Arizona poll (where, ludicrously Rubio beat Kasich for third place but could be important as it appears the Rubio delegates in Louisiana will go over to Cruz as they are not bound on the first ballot.

But, another, and most likely final chance has arisen for Rubio to show a degree of sense. It appears that, allegedly, the Rubio team has allegedly shopped the rumors of an alleged series of affairs by Senator Cruz to the media (before the Florida primary.)

The chance for Rubio to state now that he is disgusted by Cruz's actions (over Trump's wife) his history of (alleged) political malfeasance and the shocking rumors
which, whether with substance or not, deflect from Cruz's ability to campaign etc etc.

And the to announce he is supporting, the only possibly alternative, the man with millions of more votes than Cruz/Kasich and clearly the popular choice Donald Trump.

Rubio's 169 or so delegates, available after a first ballot if needed would, just by being available, ensure Trump would be the nominee. If Rubio wants to have a job after November, possibly vice-president, the door is wide open. Will he walk through it? Only a fool would not-we shall see
******************************************************************

UPDATE: As expected Donald trump not only won Florida but won it in a landslide, 900,000 ahead of next up for the Establishment Kasich at a pathetic 6.8%. Rubio's 27% is a complete embarrassment.

Kasich would seem well placed for the VP nod but if Rubio wants a future after November he can rehabilitate himself immediately by heading Kasich off at the pass and endorsing Trump whilst his 172 delegates are worth more than Kasich who has 145 which will go up just by him being in the race.

So far everything Rubio has done has ended badly,now that he is free of his "advisers' he can make a decision which could change his entire life-will he do it or will he continue on as a loser it's his call.

NB It's not hard;

"Mr. Trump is clearly going to be the nominee of our great party. It's time to put aside personal differences and unite behind the winner as the greatest goal is to defeat Hillary Clinton. I call on Governor Kasich and Senator Cruz to join with me.... and etc"

NB "They, his delegates, are free to vote how they want,  But if they are pledged to a candidate that withdraws, usually they vote at least the first ballot the way that candidate wants. It's up to them."

***********************************************************
ORIGINAL ARTICLE


If, as all the polls indicate (and yes a big FWIW after the Dem's poll disaster in Michigan) Senator Rubio loses in Florida that, surely, is the end of his campaign. 

It is hard to imagine even the most hard boiled politician staggering on ignominiously with no mathematical chance of getting the nomination much less a seemingly fragile first term senator.

What could Rubio do then? He has no fall back situation in Florida as he can't run for his current seat.
Yes, he could formally 'suspend' his campaign and hope that a contested convention situation comes into play and the weary delegates after many ballots turn to him but such a candidacy would be worth the likes of what 103 ballot winner John W. Davis was handed in 1924. 

In fact it might be even worse, at least for Davis the party didn't split, whereas if Trump comes into the convention with a huge, but not enough for the nomination lead and is denied it, the possibly of a walkout would loom large.

Instead Rubio could bring the campaign to a near immediate halt by endorsing his then erstwhile rival.
His delegate assignment to Trump would give him post Florida an insurmountable, around 700 delegates lead and would guarantee that over a short period Trump would have the necessary delegates for nomination on the first ballot.

Why not endorse Cruz instead? Even with the Cruz/Rubio combined delegates Cruz would still be behind Trump and the further primary schedule is not as promising for Cruz as it is for Trump so nothing will have change in reality. If Trump has won in Ohio, Illinois and the other March 15th states such an endorsement would seem otiose.

There would see to be little advantage politically for Rubio by endorsing Cruz. A two first term Cuban-American senators ticket seems implausible no matter who headed it. But a Trump/Rubio ticket is of course possible once the debate rancor is a distant memory. Rubio has assisted this by apologizing and regretting his silly personal attacks on Trump in the previous debate.

Trump currently leads Hillary in Florida so Rubio's popularity or lack of it in Florida is not so important, but as a clear outreach to the wider Hispanic community it may have value particularly in crucial states like Nevada, Arizona and vitally, in Colorado.

New Mexico's Governor Martinez  has seemingly put herself out of the picture by endorsing Rubio and Nevada's Governor Sandoval advised he is not interested in the VP slot. The gap between Trump and Cruz (and Palin for that matter) seems too wide and deep for any political plastering over which I doubt either man wishes.

Rubio is an obviously serous prospect for VP consideration. Whether he makes the right moves to support this will be a major measure of his political acumen and thus his suitability