Friday, March 11, 2016

Update; After Florida/Cruzgate Rubio Should Endorse Trump (Or Be A Fool Without A Job)


I really didn't expect the Rubio team to have the simple common sense to give at least a semblance of hope to his political career by endorsing Donald Trump. Nothing came of such a suggestion but-never daunted I am, uncalled for of course, making it again as I can't see how any one can be so dumb.

After Florida Rubio went the other way and called for his delegates to support Kasich not Trump. That didn't make any difference in the Arizona poll (where, ludicrously Rubio beat Kasich for third place but could be important as it appears the Rubio delegates in Louisiana will go over to Cruz as they are not bound on the first ballot.

But, another, and most likely final chance has arisen for Rubio to show a degree of sense. It appears that, allegedly, the Rubio team has allegedly shopped the rumors of an alleged series of affairs by Senator Cruz to the media (before the Florida primary.)

The chance for Rubio to state now that he is disgusted by Cruz's actions (over Trump's wife) his history of (alleged) political malfeasance and the shocking rumors
which, whether with substance or not, deflect from Cruz's ability to campaign etc etc.

And the to announce he is supporting, the only possibly alternative, the man with millions of more votes than Cruz/Kasich and clearly the popular choice Donald Trump.

Rubio's 169 or so delegates, available after a first ballot if needed would, just by being available, ensure Trump would be the nominee. If Rubio wants to have a job after November, possibly vice-president, the door is wide open. Will he walk through it? Only a fool would not-we shall see

UPDATE: As expected Donald trump not only won Florida but won it in a landslide, 900,000 ahead of next up for the Establishment Kasich at a pathetic 6.8%. Rubio's 27% is a complete embarrassment.

Kasich would seem well placed for the VP nod but if Rubio wants a future after November he can rehabilitate himself immediately by heading Kasich off at the pass and endorsing Trump whilst his 172 delegates are worth more than Kasich who has 145 which will go up just by him being in the race.

So far everything Rubio has done has ended badly,now that he is free of his "advisers' he can make a decision which could change his entire life-will he do it or will he continue on as a loser it's his call.

NB It's not hard;

"Mr. Trump is clearly going to be the nominee of our great party. It's time to put aside personal differences and unite behind the winner as the greatest goal is to defeat Hillary Clinton. I call on Governor Kasich and Senator Cruz to join with me.... and etc"

NB "They, his delegates, are free to vote how they want,  But if they are pledged to a candidate that withdraws, usually they vote at least the first ballot the way that candidate wants. It's up to them."


If, as all the polls indicate (and yes a big FWIW after the Dem's poll disaster in Michigan) Senator Rubio loses in Florida that, surely, is the end of his campaign. 

It is hard to imagine even the most hard boiled politician staggering on ignominiously with no mathematical chance of getting the nomination much less a seemingly fragile first term senator.

What could Rubio do then? He has no fall back situation in Florida as he can't run for his current seat.
Yes, he could formally 'suspend' his campaign and hope that a contested convention situation comes into play and the weary delegates after many ballots turn to him but such a candidacy would be worth the likes of what 103 ballot winner John W. Davis was handed in 1924. 

In fact it might be even worse, at least for Davis the party didn't split, whereas if Trump comes into the convention with a huge, but not enough for the nomination lead and is denied it, the possibly of a walkout would loom large.

Instead Rubio could bring the campaign to a near immediate halt by endorsing his then erstwhile rival.
His delegate assignment to Trump would give him post Florida an insurmountable, around 700 delegates lead and would guarantee that over a short period Trump would have the necessary delegates for nomination on the first ballot.

Why not endorse Cruz instead? Even with the Cruz/Rubio combined delegates Cruz would still be behind Trump and the further primary schedule is not as promising for Cruz as it is for Trump so nothing will have change in reality. If Trump has won in Ohio, Illinois and the other March 15th states such an endorsement would seem otiose.

There would see to be little advantage politically for Rubio by endorsing Cruz. A two first term Cuban-American senators ticket seems implausible no matter who headed it. But a Trump/Rubio ticket is of course possible once the debate rancor is a distant memory. Rubio has assisted this by apologizing and regretting his silly personal attacks on Trump in the previous debate.

Trump currently leads Hillary in Florida so Rubio's popularity or lack of it in Florida is not so important, but as a clear outreach to the wider Hispanic community it may have value particularly in crucial states like Nevada, Arizona and vitally, in Colorado.

New Mexico's Governor Martinez  has seemingly put herself out of the picture by endorsing Rubio and Nevada's Governor Sandoval advised he is not interested in the VP slot. The gap between Trump and Cruz (and Palin for that matter) seems too wide and deep for any political plastering over which I doubt either man wishes.

Rubio is an obviously serous prospect for VP consideration. Whether he makes the right moves to support this will be a major measure of his political acumen and thus his suitability