Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Tale of Two Convention "Bounces" There Was Only A Half Point Difference


Summary; Trump's peak post convention bounce week one was   +4.0 points
                         Hillary's  post convention bounce week one was  +4.6 points



Poll result July 17th one day prior to both convention   Trump 42.9 %  Clinton   42.2%    Trump   +0.7 Points

Poll result August 11th two weeks post conventions
Trump 43.1%    Clinton  44.2%     Clinton +1.1 Points 

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Difference after both conventions


1. Donald Trump's Convention "Bounce"


Using the USC/LATimes daily tracking poll the RNC results were as follows;


Republican National Convention July 18-21
Trump's poll on the last day    43.4%

Seven day post convention July 22nd to July 28th 

Trump's peak poll July 27th     47.4% +4.0 points (8.4%)                                                  
Trump's final week poll day                                     
                   July 28th                  46.7% +3.3 points  (5.8%)

Two weeks 8/4 post convention 
                                                     44.6% +1.2 points  (2.6%)

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2. Hillary Clinton's Convention "Bounce"


Using the USC/LATimes daily tracking poll which is the only poll publishing daily results the DNC results were as follows;


Democratic National Convention July 25th to 28th
Clinton's last day of the convention poll number was 40.6%


Seven days post convention July 29th to August 4th.


Clinton's peak post convention poll was (August 4th) on the final poll day  45.2 %                                                
   
One week post convention bounce was 4.6 points  (10%) 

Two weeks post convention August 11th 
44.2%  +3.6 points  (+8.1%)                 


Wednesday, August 10, 2016

DEM’S APPROACHING CRISIS; If Hillary’s Health Gives Out Who Can Replace Her?




The obvious examples of Hillary Clinton’s health problems are too numerous to be denied. The videos of her coughing attacks, seeming blank patches of speech halt, the intervention on stage by her handler all have been widely circulated on the internet.

Her media handlers pointing to a doctor’s statement that is a year old suggesting she is in “good health” after the need for a major medical intervention give nobody any confidence in her current medical situation.

This is only at the early stage of the grueling general election campaign and should a major health incident or a substantial coughing fit during the debates take place the voter’s confidence in her ability to serve out a full four year term would, rightly, be strongly shaken.

If, as is quite possible, Clinton is unable to continue with the campaign because a debilitating incident or a major event such as a coughing fit so hits her polling position she could quite possibly, and quite rightly, have to discontinue her run.

This would of course be disastrous for the Democratic party,  not least because who would replace her is a matter of no immediate answer given the Dem’s lack of a “deep bench.”

Sanders would of course normally be given the role as the runner up in the primary campaign. However the former Independent, then Democrat stated he would return to the senate as an independent once again. 

That the party could be headed by someone who has clearly stated he doesn’t wish to be a member would surely preclude him from being the replacement nominee.

How such a scenario would go down with Sanders supporters who would have seen him rejected twice would be an unpleasant spectacle and would see whomever was chosen in his stead being deserted by those who, in loyalty to Sanders, supported Hillary no doubt against their will.

Who then? Joe Biden, whose age and personal family concerns precluded his seeking the office? He might out of party loyalty but whether his heart would be in the campaign is a matter of doubt.

Kaine? Who? Kaine’s claim to the nomination is tenuous at best with only  his situation as having been picked as a  “safe”  and innocuous VP choice from a marginal state without having participated in any way in the run up to the nomination. In fact if participation has any bearing on the matter Martin O’Malley has as good a claim to the nomination as anyone.

Elizabeth Warren was briefly trotted out as an attack dog and the quickly shunted into the background. Whether the DNC would wish to have a female Trump  opposing  him is a matter of some doubt, as would if her “favorables” would be any better than Hillary’s terrible ones are currently.

Beyond these luminaries it is difficult to imagine who might take Hillary’s place if need be-except for, yes, Michelle Obama. 

She is the one person who could legitimately run as “Obama’s third term” and do well keeping together the coalition of overwhelming Black support which might have dissipated with Hillary ( or any other successor) and keep the rust belt states in play against the strong challenge from Trump. 

But whether she would wish to run, something she has given no indication of entering her mind is another question, but DNC pleading “for the sake of America” might override any personal considerations.

As it is the Democrats have the sword of Damocles clearly dangling and if it falls they may not survive its descent no matter who the fallen swords point points to. 

Their collective prayers must surely be for Hilary’s health to hold out for the next 90 odd days-or else catastrophe awaits.






Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Poll Of Tracking Polls; First "Honest" Snapshot Of The Clinton/Trump Race



UPDATE Sept-25th. After 5 straight days of gains to get within 1 point Hillary has sharp drop to minus 4.1 points behind Trump. USC/LATimes. This reflects new ABC/Washinton Post  one off poll showing Trump tied (one off polls lag the trackers). Trump rise partly driven by sharp recovery among African Americans from a week low of 5% to now 15% after Charlotte and President Obama's "I will eb insulted" call effect diminishing


Update September 24th; 22 consecutive days of Trump being in the lead in the aggregate of the polls (presuming UPI/C doesn't go off the charts when they report next) 

I asked 'where to from here" after the tracking polls showed a substantial rise for Trump post 9/11 "pneumonia & deplorables" the answer is, so far, a slow decline in Trump's aggregate lead but not the quick return to the norm of Trump and Clinton being 1-2 points apart and changing lead from time to time.

This is positive for Trump as if he can sustain an aggregate lead he will be well placed for the more important state polls to catch up to this "new normal" if that is what it is.

The picture is not entirely clear as UPI/C is lagging even further behind than normal. Give UPI/C's Clinton bent it is reasonable to expect they will have her 1-2 points ahead by their 9/20 poll but that may drop the aggregate of the three polls below around +3 for Trump.


Although Trump peaked in the aggregate on 9/14 PPD and USC/LATimes are merging into the same at around +2  If Trump holds at that level it looks very good for him

Trump's decline commenced when President Obama made his "personal insult" call for Black support of Clinton especially in the USC poll where Trump's support went to 20% and has fallen back to 5%

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September 16th; the bad news; Trump peak confirmed (see previous post).The good news, Trump's decline is minimal as is Hillary's rise.


As detailed below Trump rose sharply post "Deplorables/Pneumonia" to his highest ever aggregate of +4 on 9/14.

That appears to be his peak for now at least and the question is will he decline back to the previous dead heat norm or stay around this level? A question Nate Silver asks today, confirming my analysis of yesterday.

It is of course early days but the good news, so far, is that Trump's decline from peak is in half a percent on average with Hillary showing similar tiny rises across the polls. If around 3-4 point lead is Trump's "new normal" that will be good news indeed as the "one off" and state polls catch up.

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September 15th;

Trump +4 aggregate to Sept 14th his highest too date (as usual UPI/C lags a day behind.) UPI/C trends to Clinton and even though PPD and USC show substantial Trump rises UPI/C has a Clinton rise-but such is aggregation.

On polls for the 14th Trump is at his all time high in the USC/LATimes poll at +5.9 and PPD poll at +5.2
This is also a higher figure Clinton received at any time in both polls.

Trump has led in the aggregate of all three polls for 13 straight days




Trump Opens up massive 6 point lead over Hillary after two days "Deplorables/"Pneumonia" USC/LATimes Poll

Trump at highest since July with 6.4 point lead over Clinton new USC/LATimes poll; 19.2 Black support


Politico's Edward-Isaac Doveret "Clinton’s bad weekend won’t rewrite the race' Hopeless "pundits"

Trump leads in every age demographic including  the 18-34 age group.Perhaps surprisingly opens a 7 point lead in the $75k income group while hitting over 50% in the middle income 35K-75K group.



In PPD Trump has gone from a tie on September 7th to a 5.2 lead September 14th



*********************************************** September 12th Week 5;

From "Techno" at C4P


For the first time Trump leads in all three tracking polls.

First post Hillary "deplorables/9/11 sickness poll USC/LATimes Trump jumps into 3 point lead 45.8 to 42.8 Trumps highest Hillary's lowest since July


Massive jump in African American support for Trump from 2.7% to 12.9%.

Trump now leads in all age groups including by four in the 18-34 year sector

Trump at his highest since records kept in the aggregate of the three tracking polls 




Trump has led in 13 of the last 14 days and has 
increased to 1.2 points (in green at far right of table) over week four at 0.7 


Trump has taken the lead in Real Clear Politics Florida poll aggregates which confirms the state poll
trend to Trump (state polls lag the tracking polls)



13% Black and 29% Hispanic support for Trump in PPD Poll



Tracking polls lead "one off polls" but even there the trend to Trump (and more pronounced decline of Hillary) is obvious. CNN

National CNN/ORC poll Head-2-Head: Trump 49% (+1) Clinton 48% A 10% shift toward Trump in 5 weeks

Clinton + 7.3 on 8/10 Now +2.4 on 9/6

Rasmussen Trump + 1 

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                                                             Aggregate

The clear trend to Trump in these three tracking polls is mirrored in the "one off" polls and state polls which are  (more) slowly trending to  him.
New Reuters poll has them tied.

RCP Aggregate Clinton+5.5 on 8/21 now 

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Clinton peaked in the trackers on 8/16 at +6.5% (UPI/C Poll) and has dropped sharply since as also indicated in the "one off" polls charts


​Given the nature of the "lag" between the one off polls (and especially the state polling aggregates)​ it could be well expected that over the next weeks the one off polls will reflect where the tracking polls are.



This reflects Nate Silver's complete misreading of Donald Trump's campaign right from the first days of the primary campaign Silver weighs in that Clinton's lead has stabilized "It's clear and steady" just as the tide has turned now.



Pat Caddell; "Tracking polls tend to be much closer than one offs."


Taking respected pollster Pat Caddell's advice regarding tracking polls it seems highly possible that the aggregate of major trackers would give the least biased/distorted snapshot of where the head to head polling is at any given time.



The various "one off" nationwide polls are showing ridiculous extremes which reflects the underlying bias/distortion caused by how they use demographics.
For example

Voters in 2012 Dem 38% GOP 32% Indie 29% New Dem 35% GOP 26% Indie 39% 18-24 year olds in 2012 19% Monmouth 25%


How polls are done "YouGov Clinton leads by 3 " Dem respondents 48% of those polled 33% were Republicans 14%


Further  proof that these polls are leftist driven for the MSM is that Quinippiac reports Trump and Clinton tied at 43% each in Florida while McClatchy/Marist has her ahead by 15 points nationwide-those results are irreconcilable of course. The aggregate of six non-tracking polls is 
Clinton +10 which gives a bias of +150% over "honest" Tracking polls.


NB; "PPD "The result of the People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll released on Saturday July 30 marks the first time our internal polling data, which helped propel the PPD Election Projection Model to #1 in 2014, has been released for public consumption."
  


Establishment Antics Tears GOP Into Irreconcilable Three If Trump Loses And So Be It

UPDATE:Add Ryan Ayotte and McCain to the list





The GOP Establishment's Maine's Senator Susan Collins and Illinois Senator Mark Kirk for example will have torn the Republican Party into three, unless Donald Trump wins the election. What makes Kirk's defection so ridiculous is he is going to be slaughtered in Illinois so he will be a loser and a turncoat and good riddance

If Trump loses, and of course Collin, Kirk et al actions would be a considerable factor in such a loss, it is impossible for the party to stay permanently unfractured after November. Paul Ryan being holier than thou over an eleven year old conversation and refusing to attend an event with Trump is disgusting

The fifty Republican security analysts who signed an open letter declaring Trump unfit for the presidency is a matter that Trump, rightly, shrugged off as coming from a 'failed Washington elite." Their contribution, if any, to a Trump defeat would be be negligible and Trump's dismissal would resonate with anyone who took any notice of the signatories.

The scattering of elected Republican officials, three Congressmen in particular, who have advised they won't vote for Trump are also, in the great scheme of things, unlikely to have any bearing on his Electoral College vote, but it might have an affect on their subsequent careers at primary time.

Senator Collins betrayal of the GOP, and betrayal it is, marks a bridge too far. Even Nixon campaigned for Goldwater whose campaign makes Trump look Reaganesque, that Collins could not also be loyal, if not to Trump then to the millions who chose him in the primaries, marks an irreparable breach. 

Further Maine, where recent polling had Trump leading in one Electoral College vote district and whose four votes could be crucial makes Collins betrayal even worse than it appears.

Collins is a respected, long serving senator in a time of genuine and widespread disaffection for politicians, and given Trump's apparent problem with women voters her attack compounds the situation.

If via the desertion of Collins, the breaching of the "contract' to support the nominee by Jeb Bush and others, Trump loses then there is no possible way for the party as currently constructed to stay united. 

There is no possible way that Trump supporters can work with the "#NeverTrump" irreconcilables who are deluding themselves if they think the party will unite after November. Why on earth should any Trump supporter support any candidate that these betrayers support in future 

There will be three distinct groupings. The D.C. establishment as represented by the Bush/Romney/Graham/Ryan element, the grass roots Trump supporters and the Cruz "constitutional conservatives."

There is no possible way for these three utterly opposed groupings to stay together, the days of
cynical "unity" would be over and for any member of these three groups to support the other would be an abhorrent show of utter cynicism.

If Trump loses the populist "Trumpist" element would respond to the leadership vacuum (presuming Trump steps down) and a Sarah Palin type, perhaps Rubio (if not Palin herself) who combines the qualities of religious values, populist roots and mutual respect with a center-right policy. 

Then again populists deserted Rubio over his immigration policy and his attacks on Trump, so it is hard to see them trusting him ever again. It is of course not unimaginable that Rubio would desert to the establishment if  Trump loses and make a bid for the nomination that way-good luck to him and his "only a Hispanic can win Florida" sure to come meme.

This group, which has to be a new party for obvious reasons of utter incompatibility with the backstabbers in D.C. would have the widest popular voting support.

It is conceivable that if personal animosities could be overcome and conservative leaders do not attack Trump overtly then some sort of coalition with the populists could be created, but if not there is the makings of a regional party (it would of course have no effect in the east where Cruz was battered in the primaries).

As for the establishment they  would be welcome the the name of "Republicans as they disappear down the rabbit hole where the Federalists and Whigs preceded them. Their candle will be a brief, unloved and unlovely flicker as its light, such as it is, splutters out. It is unimaginable that the vast populist movement that came to support Trump in their millions could be led by Lindsay Graham, Jeb Bush and cohort.

The transition to a new populist party will be quick and not painful, rather like a butterfly emerging from a dusty cocoon casting off the detritus of change. It may come to pass that populists will thank the likes of Collins,Ryan and Graham for making this emergence possible. It would be better of course for their likes to be swept away by a Trump landslide but if that does not eventuate four years of renewal and their being discarded will be effective.



Thursday, August 4, 2016

Top 10 Reasons Why Hillary's Crowds Are So Small





1. It's summer and she blots out the sun-people can't stand the sudden chill

2. Her events take place Monday to Sunday-days when folks are just too busy

3. Frankly, hardly anyone likes her

4 When you've heard one lie-well you've heard them all

5. They saw her in 2008-once is enough

6. She drags poor old Bill along-nobody likes  to see elder abuse

7. It's too dangerous-remember she was "under fire in Sarajevo" so why take a chance

8. People are afraid their cellphones and tablets will be tapped and show up on Wiki

9. Women are afraid they will be "style-shamed" by Hillary's pantsuits

10. Trump's event is just down the road